Belmont Stakes 2013 Horses: Long Shots Most Likely to Pull off Upsets

While horses like Orb and Oxbow receive most of the attention, there are some Belmont Stakes 2013 horses that, despite being long shots, could pull of an upset.

In order to win at Belmont, a horse needs a lot of endurance, good closing speed and needs to benefit from a timely decision by the jockey to break. Break too soon and they could tire out or get caught. Break too late and they won't be able to catch up.

Some of the long shots fit the mold of a Belmont winner perfectly; others have no shot. Which horses are the most likely to pull off an upset?

Incognito

Incognito currently has 20-1 odds, according to the Daily Racing Form. Incognitio has great pedigree. His sire, A.P. Indy, won the Belmont in 1992 as well as Horse of the Year.  His dam, Octave, won G1-Coaching Club American Oaks, a mile-and-a-half race.

His trainer, Kiaran McLaughlin admitted that Incognito is running in this race because of the pedigree, telling Sports Illustrated  "that's why we're here. He's battle tested. We hope for the best, and hope is pedigree kicks in."

Banking on simply pedigree won't get the horse far, but it is encouraging that he is bred for distance and has two first-place finishes this year. 

The mile-and-a-half track places increased importance on endurance. A horse needs to be able to stick it out to the end. Out of all the horses in the field, Incognito has the best pedigree and is the horse who has the best potential to be a long-distance success.

Starting at the No. 6 position, and in between Oxbow and Orb, jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. needs to ensure that Incognito doesn't get squeezed out by the two favorites. If he can leave the gate clean, he might have a chance.

One thing working against him is that he did not fare well in the Peter Pan Stakes, which is also on the Belmont track. That race featured a muddy track, and, if the forecasts hold up, then it will be an even muddier track.

Palace Malice

Palace Malice started out the Kentucky Derby in front, but eventually faded. It was his first race with blinkers on. Did that have an impact?

Maybe, especially since the blinkers will come off for the Belmont. At 15-1 odds, according to the Daily Racing Form, he is probably the fastest horse in the field, as his early fraction at the Derby was one of the fastest ever.

Speed, though, isn't everything and if he doesn't have the proper endurance, he'll fade quickly. Luckily for Palace Malice, he does have a good pedigree. His sire, Curlin, won the 2007 Preakness Stakes.

Jockey Mike Smith will have to try and restrain Palace Malice—something he didn't do at the Derby. If the horse can stay within the middle of the pack for a good amount of the race, and then make his move, Palace Malice has a legitimate chance. He can use his blazing speed to take the lead.

It all depends on Smith. Smith, a veteran jockey, needs to make his move at the right time. If he does, then placing a bet on Palace Malice could be a very wise move.

Golden Soul

Golden Soul finished second at the Kentucky Derby despite having 34-1 odds. Does he have a chance to do something similar at Belmont?

It's quite possible. At 10-1 odds, according to the Daily Racing Form, the horse will be getting a lot of play. 

Golden Soul's strength is coming from the back of the field. He came from the back of the field to finish fourth at the Louisiana Derby and rallied from far back at the Kentucky Derby as well.

The strategy, then, will be for jockey Robby Albarado to hang back, stay on the outside from his 14th post, and then take off. With his speed and his ability to charge from the back, Golden Soul does have a legitimate chance of winning.

The key is using his post position as an advantage. While the last spot can be tough, if Albarado uses it to get a clean break toward the end, then the horse can surprise a lot of people.