Mark Appel's Decision to Turn Down Pirates' Offer in 2012 Will Pay Off

Stanford right-hander Mark Appel may not be the No. 1 overall pick in the 2013 MLB draft, but he figures to make more money than he would have if he had signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates out of the 2012 draft.

Appel was a contender for the No. 1 pick last year, but concerns about his signability dropped him down draft boards. The Pirates ultimately took a risk, selecting him at No. 8 overall and offering him $3.8 million.

Appel didn't budge, backed by the one and only Scott Boras, and elected to play his senior season at Stanford.

Now, it's quite likely that he signs with the Chicago Cubs, who own the No. 2 overall pick, per Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune. 

Unlike the Houston Astros—who own the No. 1 pick—the Cubs probably won't be afraid to spend some money on Appel. While the Astros may have a greater need for pitching than the Cubs, they are expected to spread out their money on talent, as Keith Law of ESPN.com (subscription required) noted in his mock draft on May 30.

The Astros could go with San Diego third baseman Kris Bryant, North Carolina third baseman Colin Moran, Oklahoma right-hander Jonathan Gray or Appel, but there's a strong vibe that they'll go with Bryant or Moran.

That would give the Cubs the option of Gray or Appel. While Gray possesses an electric arm, Appel is generally considered to be more polished, which means he could see the majors earlier. Make no mistake about it, Appel is an elite pitching prospect, armed with a fastball he throws in the mid-90s with good movement and a top-end slider and changeup.

This season, Appel improved upon his numbers from 2012, going 10-4 with a 2.12 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 106.1 innings, via GoStanford.com. His numbers backed up his hard work, as he improved his arm angle and changeup (his changeup blows Gray's offering out of the water).

In case you're wondering, the Cubs have $6.7 million to work with at No. 2 overall this year, per Baseball America.

It appears as if Appel's risk to play another season at Stanford has paid off. His talent is simply too big to pass up in the top five.