Kentucky Derby 2013: Ranking Every Horse in the Field

If the favorite always won, there wouldn’t be a reason to run the race.

While betting odds for the Kentucky Derby are useful measures of a horse’s chances of winning The Run for the Roses, upsets happen quite often. To be successful in predicting the results, it’s important to first understand why these 20 horses earned a shot in the race and what may hold them back from earning a victory.

The position draw for the Derby also has a big effect on how each horse will perform on May 4. Some run well off the pace and others as front runners, and positioning has a major impact on how each horse executes its running style. For horses like Black Onyx (which was drawn the dreaded rail position), winning has now become a near-futile endeavor.

For other horses with more favorable draws, besting the group will be based on a combination of positioning, running style, talent and luck. There’s a reason the Derby earned the moniker, “The Greatest Two Minutes in Sports.”

Let’s take a look at full rankings for each horse in the Kentucky Derby and highlight a couple long shot competitors that could defy the odds and earn a victory in the first leg of the Triple Crown on Saturday.

Rank	Horse	Trainer	Position	Odds
1	Orb	McGaughey	16	7-2
2	Verrazano	Pletcher	14	4-1
3	Goldencents	O'Neill	8	5-1
4	Normandy Invasion	Brown	5	12-1
5	Revolutionary	Pletcher	3	10-1
6	Java's War	McPeek	19	15-1
7	Overanalyze	Pletcher	9	15-1
8	Vyjack	Rodriguez	20	15-1
9	Will Take Charge	Lukas	17	20-1
10	Itsmyluckyday	Plesa Jr.	12	15-1
11	Mylute	Amoss	6	15-1
12	Palace Malice	Pletcher	10	20-1
13	Oxbow	Lukas	2	30-1
14	Charming Kitten	Pletcher	15	20-1
15	Lines of Battle	O'Brien	11	30-1
16	Falling Sky	Terranova II	13	50-1
17	Giant Finish	Dutrow	7	50-1
18	Golden Soul	Stewart	4	50-1
19	Frac Daddy	McPeek	18	50-1
20	Black Onyx	Breen	1	50-1

*Odds acquired from Linemakers.sportingnews.com.

Palace Malice

As a horse that races best just off the pace, Palace Malice will be in decent position to make a late push in the Derby. While the No. 12 position has yielded just three winners in the event’s history, the Todd Pletcher-trained colt could be in much worse position.

Despite a poor showing at Louisiana (seventh place), Palace Malice came roaring back at Blue Grass to earn a second-place finish behind Java’s War on April 13. The three-year-old colt is running well, and there’s a chance it surprises a lot of people on May 4.

At 20-1, Palace Malice is in a group of strong horses with solid betting odds. The payout is enough to warrant the risk, but not so steep to suggest there’s any reason to worry the son of Curlin can’t produce a quality finish at Churchill Downs.

 

Oxbow

Post position will play a big part in how well Oxbow runs on Saturday. With a pace-setting running style and one of the fastest sprinting speeds in the Kentucky Derby, the colts loves to get out ahead and set the tone. It will have an opportunity to do just that from the No. 2 starting position.

Oxbow is one of two D. Wayne Lukas-trained horses in the race. The 77-year-old has 13 Triple Crown victories in his career, and none of his horses should be counted out on race day.

Will Take Charge is Lukas’ other horse in the race, and while it has better odds of winning (20-1), don’t be surprised if the 30-1 longshot in Oxbow comes out ahead down the stretch.