Free Pick: Washington
April 24, 2009 7:00 p.m.—NHL Hockey Odds
The price on Washington is too high to qualify as one of my “guaranteed” selections. However, those who have followed my complimentary plays know that we’ve been very successful over the long-term when playing games in this price range. Note that the Capitals were an even bigger favorite in Game 2 and that this game is even more important to them.
Here’s the situation. The Rangers won both games in Washington to start the series. The Caps bounced back with a convincing 4-0 victory in Game 3 at Madison Square Garden. The Rangers responded with a 2-1 win in Game 4. That brings the series to 3-1 with the Capitals now fully in “must win” mode.
While not many teams come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the series, I do expect the Caps to give us a huge effort tonight. Despite being down 3-1, they’ve played well in the series—they’ve just been beaten by a red hot Henrik Lundqvist. Even in losing the last game, they still held a 39-21 edge in shots on goal.
I respect the Rangers and they were good to me quite a few times this season. However, I also believe that the Caps, 22-7 (+8.6), when playing with “revenge,” aren’t ready to start golfing, quite yet. I expect Ovechkin to lead by example and look for the series to be extended to a sixth game. If you don’t mind laying this type of “juice,” consider a play on WASHINGTON.