NBA MVP: Team Success Is Crucial

As the debate escalates over who is going to be named the regular season MVP, it's important to consider the criteria traditionally used by the panel of sportswriters and broadcasters charged with making that decision.

If you look closely at MVPs from past years, you'll notice some recurring trends. Here's a rundown of all the MVPs that have been crowned under the current process.

                                          Team         Team    Indv.   Indv.    Playoff

                                        Standing   Standing Rank    Rank     Result

Year           Player              (Conference) (NBA)   (PPG)  (PER) (Prev. Yr.)

2006-2007  Dirk Nowitzki         1st           1st        13th     4th    West Chmp

2005-2006  Steve Nash           3rd          4th        33rd    13th    Conf Semi

2004-2005  Steve Nash           1st           1st        61st     16th       DNP*

2003-2004  Kevin Garnett        1st          2nd         3rd      1st   Lost 1st Rd.

2002-2003  Tim Duncan        1st (Tie)   1st (Tie)     7th      3rd  Won 1st Rd.

2001-2002  Tim Duncan          2nd          2nd         5th      2nd   Conf Semi

2000-2001  Allen Iverson         1st        2nd (Tie)    1st      7th  Won 1st Rd.

1999-2000  Shaquille O'Neal     1st           1st         1st      1st   Won 1st Rd.

1998-1999  Karl Malone         1st (Tie)   1st (Tie)    3rd      2nd   West Chmp

1997-1998  Michael Jordan        1st       1st (Tie)     1st      4th    NBA Chmp

1996-1997  Karl Malone            1st          2nd        2nd      1st    Conf Semi

1995-1996  Michael Jordan        1st          1st         1st      2nd  Won 1st Rd.

1994-1995  David Robinson      1st          1st         3rd      1st   Lost 1st Rd.

1993-1994  Hakeem Olajuwon   2nd         2nd        3rd      3rd   Won 1st Rd.

1992-1993  Charles Barkley      1st           1st        5th      4th   Won 1st Rd.

1991-1992  Michael Jordan       1st           1st        1st       1st    NBA Chmp

1990-1991  Michael Jordan       1st           2nd       1st       1st    Conf Semi

1989-1990  Magic Johnson       1st           1st       18th     4th    West Chmp

1988-1989  Magic Johnson       1st           2nd      15th     3rd     NBA Chmp

1987-1988  Michael Jordan       3rd        7th (Tie)   1st      1st    Lost 1st Rd.

1986-1987  Magic Johnson       1st           1st       10th     2nd    Conf Semi

1985-1986  Larry Bird              1st           1st        4th      1st    East Chmp

1984-1985  Larry Bird              1st           1st        2nd     1st     NBA Chmp

1983-1984  Larry Bird              1st           1st        7th      2nd   Lost 1st Rd. 

1982-1983  Moses Malone        1st           1st        5th      1st     East Chmp**

1981-1982  Moses Malone      4th (Tie)  7th (Tie)    2nd      1st    West Chmp

1980-1981  Julius Erving        1st (Tie)   1st (Tie)   7th       4th    East Chmp

Averages:                            1.38          1.88       8.27    3.31

*Steve Nash was still on the Mavericks when the Suns failed to make the playoffs in 2003. Nash helped lead the Mavericks through a successful playoff run that ended in the Western Conference Semifinals. 

**Moses Malone was traded to the 76ers after the '81-'82 season, so he did not play a part in their winning of the Eastern Conference Finals. His previous team, the Rockets lost in the first round of the 1982 playoffs.

As you can see, the vast majority of season MVPs, 20 out of 26, came from a team that had the best record in their respective conference, if not the entire NBA. It's obvious that team success in the regular season is a major factor when considering a player for MVP. This trend could prove favorable for players like Chris Paul or Kevin Garnett whose teams are likely to end up at or near the top of their conference standings.

What's the next most important statistic?

Basically, it's efficiency. MVPs of the past ranked highly in PER even though this statistic has been commonly used for less than a decade. Even the MVPs whose team did not lead the conference standings ranked higher in PER than they did in scoring.

The few times that the season scoring leader became the season MVP appears merely coincidental. Judging from these numbers, the emphasis on scoring averages has declined. The same could be said for efficiency as well.

A vast majority of these MVPs also competed on teams that had some degree of success in the playoffs the year prior to them being named. This may also be somewhat of a coincidental factor, though.

So based on the trends demonstrated here, who has the best shot at winning the MVP race this year? Let's compare the top names in consideration by the same numbers.

                        Team         Team    Indv.   Indv.    Playoff

                      Standing   Standing Rank    Rank     Result

Player            (Conference) (NBA)   (PPG)  (PER) (Prev. Yr.)

Kobe Bryant        3rd             5th       2nd      5th    Lost 1st rnd.

LeBron James      4th            13th      1st       1st     East Chmps

Chris Paul            1st            3rd       21st      3rd        DNP

Kevin Garnett       1st            1st       45th     10th       DNP

Going by team standing alone, Kevin Garnett is the clear favorite, but his relatively low PER may keep him from getting enough votes. Then again, Steve Nash had similar rankings in '04-'05, his first year on a strong Suns roster that included Amare Stoudamire and Shawn Marion. 

In contrast, LeBron James has by far the best PER in the league, but with his team so low in the standings he might not stand much of a chance. On the other hand, Moses Malone was in a similar situation back in '81-'82, as was Michael Jordan in '87-'88.

Kobe's team is ranked high and so are his scoring and efficiency stats. Chris Paul has him beat, though. As long as the Hornets can stay on top of the Western Conference and comfortably ahead of the Lakers, recent trends in MVP voting seem to favor CP3.

Of course, there are other factors that come into play. For instance, some voters may base their judgments of who is the most "overdue" for an award. Others may favor older players figuring that the young ones will have other chances.

Though some of the trends mentioned here are generally applicable, they occasionally get thrown out the window. How else can you explain Steve Nash being named MVP in '05-'06?

Still, based on the tendencies we've seen in past MVP voting, it's pretty safe to say that Chris Paul is in the lead.

...for now.