The Final Four: Efficiency Rules

With the Final Four fast approaching, it’s important to get the lowdown to know exactly what to watch for in the games.

So in depth, we’ll examine offensive efficiency, defensive efficiency, and, later today or tomorrow, I’ll visit the all important who-has-the-best-player metric.

Offensive Efficiency

It might surprise you to find out that North Carolina, despite averaging the most points per game, is not head of the class when it comes to efficiency.

Although, UNC ought to be congratulated for being the head of the class in terms of graduation rates. Indeed, Roy Williams’ current crew comes in second to Roy Williams’ former crew (Kansas) in terms of points per 100 possessions (ppp), but not by much (117.9 ppp versus 117.8).

The way in which they score points is fundamentally different: Kansas scores chiefly in half court sets, while UNC crams the ball down your throat.

Kansas’ tempo is much slower than Carolina, 68 possessions per game (popg) to 75 popg.  They shoot a remarkably high percentage—56 percent—from the field in terms of effective field goal percentage (eFG).

In contrast, UNC’s primary and secondary breaks are designed to get shots on the rim quickly when the defense is most scattered.  So while their eFG is lower than Kansas, this allows for a host of offensive rebounding opportunities, of which Carolina ranks first in the country in terms of offensive rebounding percentage (ORp).

UCLA and Memphis do not put up points at the rate of the other half of the Final Four.

Memphis, though, isn’t far behind at 115 ppp.  Memphis excels at taking care of the ball, giving them a turnover percentage (TOp) of 17 percent and getting open shots from their Dribble-Drive motion offense.

UCLA is the least efficient offense of the bunch, possessing a middling eFG and TOp, but they do get a solid amount of offensive rebounds for a 40 ORp.

Defensive Efficiency

On the defensive side of the ball, Memphis is the best of the four allowing a meager 87 ppp.  The Tigers play very fundamentally sound defense, and do not allow opponents to shoot well from the field.

Though, it can’t hurt to have Joey Dorsey, Shawn Taggart, and Robert Dozier on the back line swatting away 21 percent of their opponents’ possessions.

Kansas (90 ppp) plays a similar style of D—lockdown, half-court defense.  Both teams do not force very many turnovers, which probably helps their eFG percentage allowed.

UCLA is third, allowing 91 ppp, but does so in a very different manner.  UCLA clears the defensive glass with alacrity—28 ORp allowed (seventh in the nation).

The other thing that UCLA does that never, ever gets mentioned is they don’t foul often.

UCLA defensive free throw rate was much lower than their counterparts.  Finally, UNC’s defense bears mentioning.

Out of both offensive and defensive efficiency measures, UNC’s defense—95 ppp—is the only one that is out of the top 10.  In fact, it’s 31st in the country.  However, during the tournament, the Heels have been much more solid.

Outcome 

The differences between these teams are so slight, making it difficult to judge who will win the tournament, making each team’s chances of winning about 25 percent—which makes for an outstanding Final Four.  But what fun would it be if we just left it at that?

So who’s the pick?  All tournament, I’ve been convinced that UNC’s lack of defense would catch up to them. It’s hard to argue with the results thus far, but I will anyway. 

I say Kansas pulls it out in a gem and meets UCLA in the final.  Tune back in for a pick on the finals…

(All stats courtesy of kenpom.com)