NBA Rookies Radically Redfining Our Expectations

When a rookie is selected during the NBA draft, fans and analysts instantly create expectations for their career and first year in the league, respectively. From an evaluation of their upside to a breakdown of their current abilities, the world attempts to gauge their impact before it transpires.

The following NBA rookies have radically redefined the expectations set for them.

From those who have made something out of limited playing time to the rising stars, it appears as if every rookie has surprised us in some way. The players on this list, however, have exceeded and altered our expectations.

So, which first year players did we underrate entering 2012-13?

Chris Copeland, New York Knicks

Position: Small Forward

Age: 28

Drafted: N/A (2006)

2012-13 Season Averages

19.63 PER, 11.7 MPG, 7.2 PPG, 41.2% 3PT

Chris Copeland is averaging 11.7 minutes per game. He's also averaging 7.2 points per game.

That's a per 48 minutes average of 29.5 points per game. He's doing so while shooting 41.2 percent from beyond the arc.

You're probably still wondering who it is I'm talking about.

Copeland is a 28-year-old rookie who went untouched during the 2006 NBA draft. Since then, he has played in Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and Spain.

After lighting up the scoreboard during the 2012 preseason, it appears as if the regular season is his latest target.

Copeland has scored at least 20 points in two games since December 17, 2012. He's scored in double figures in five of his past seven.

For a player with no expectations at all, Copeland has been phenomenal.

Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons

Position: Center

Age: 19

Drafted: First Round, Ninth Pick

2012-13 Season Averages

21.79 PER, 19.5 MPG, 7.0 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 1.5 BPG, 0.9 SPG

When the Detroit Pistons drafted Andre Drummond, many expected him to be a project player.

As of January 2, 2013, Drummond leads the Detroit Pistons in blocks and is second in rebounds per game. He's averaging just 19.5 minutes of game action.

It seems as if the project is closer to completion than we'd assumed.

Drummond presently ranks 20th in the NBA with a player efficiency rating of 21.79.

He's sixth in rebound rate at 21.0, second with an offensive rebound rate of 16.8 and fifth in rebounds per 48 minutes.

That's among all players. Not just rookies.

As for his spot with the first-year players, Drummond has been, arguably, the best of all.

He ranks first in PER, value added and estimated wins added. He's also the top rebounder in terms of overall, offensive and defensive, rating.

Drummond has played more than 30 minutes in just two games. Even still, he has five double-doubles, 10 double-digit rebounding games and seven games with at least three blocks.

By the numbers, Drummond has been the best rookie in the NBA. Yet we thought he'd be a project.

Festus Ezeli, Golden State Warriors

Position: Center

Age: 23

Drafted: First Round, 30th Pick

2012-13 Season Averages

7.93 PER, 16.0 MPG, 2.8 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 1.1 BPG

He may not be producing at a high level, but Festus Ezeli has started 26 games for a team that is 21-10.

Say whatever else you want, but that's the most significant number for a player that nearly fell out of the first round of the 2012 NBA draft.

As it presently stands, Ezeli has the best chance of any rookie big man to see significant playing time come the postseason. Even if the Golden State Warriors were to miss the playoffs, this is indescribably valuable playing time for such a young player.

As he continues to play a Kendrick Perkins role, he will develop a greater feel for the game. It is then that his numbers will improve.

Ezeli is being granted the perfect opportunity to create a lengthy career. So far, he's made the most of that opportunity.

Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Charlotte Bobcats

Position: Small Forward

Age: 19

Drafted: First Round, Second Pick

2012-13 Season Averages

17.19 PER, 10.9 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 1.8 APG, 1.3 BPG, 0.8 SPG

Entering the 2012 NBA draft, many labeled Michael Kidd-Gilchrist as an effort player with no true skills to contribute.

He may not be posting the scoring numbers of a Dion Waiters or Bradley Beal, but he's doing something more important: He's playing veteran basketball.

Thus far, MKG is shooting 50.6 percent from the floor. He's also committing just 1.6 turnovers per game in 27.5 minutes.

This comes with a usage rate of 17.3 percent—a number that ranks within the top 15 of rookies.

MKG is also on pace to become the first rookie small forward to post a PER of 17.00 or above since Michael Beasley in 2009.

As for his all-around contributions, MKG ranks third among rookies in value added and estimated wins added.

How about that?

Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers

Position: Point Guard

Age: 22

Drafted: First Round, Sixth Pick

2012-13 Season Averages

17.01 PER, 18.4 PPG, 6.3 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.1 SPG

If there is one word to define Damian Lillard's rookie season in the NBA, it is "poise."

When Lillard was drafted by the Portland Trail Blazers, the world had concluded that he was the top point guard in the class. No one expected him to be one of the top point guards in the league.

18.4 points and 6.3 assists per game provide the statistical evidence.

As of January 2, 2013, Lillard ranks 10th among point guards in terms of value added. He's also 10th in estimated wins added.

With Portland having started at a surprising 16-14, we now know who to praise for their success.

For a comparison, Derrick Rose averaged 16.8 points and 6.3 assists per game during his rookie season. Lillard is averaging the same amount of dimes and 1.6 more points.

Could Lillard be the next point guard to win MVP?

Brian Roberts, New Orleans Hornets

Position: Point Guard

Age: 27

Drafted: N/A (2008)

2012-13 Season Averages

14.71 PER, 15.4 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 2.5 APG, 38.5% 3PT

Brian Roberts isn't on this list because of his production. In fact, Roberts is nowhere near the level necessary to win Rookie of the Year.

The reason the 27-year-old rookie is included is because he has proven that it's never too late to start your NBA career.

Although players such as Atlanta's Ivan Johnson have done this before, Roberts has taken the "elderly rookies" label to another level. He's done this by becoming an intricate part in the New Orleans Hornets' game plan.

A rookie-high usage rate of 24.0 proves just that.

Although his minutes will continue to decrease with Eric Gordon returning to the rotation, Roberts made a statement. When a player is not drafted directly out of college, their dream of the NBA is not over.

Even if it takes a full five years, a player can still make it to the big stage.

Even if they are 27. Even if they aren't Linsanity.

Even if they weren't supposed to make it.

Alexey Shved, Minnesota Timberwolves

Position: Guard

Age: 24

Drafted: N/A (2012)

2012-13 Season Averages

13.42 PER, 10.9 PPG, 4.6 APG, 2.7 RPG, 0.8 SPG

Fans of the Minnesota Timberwolves will tell you that they knew Alexey Shved would be this good, this soon. I'm not quite sure anyone actually expected this, though.

Shved went on a tear in December, averaging 11.4 points and 5.8 assists per game. He tallied his first career double-double on December 20, 2012.

His second game nine days later against the Phoenix Suns.

Shved also shot a respectable 35.5 percent from beyond the arc in December, further solidifying his status as an all-around contributor.

Alongside Ricky Rubio, Shved should continue to produce at this level. If anything, he will become more efficient.

Who would have thought that it'd be Shved starting eight games already?

Jared Sullinger, Boston Celtics

Position: Power Forward

Age: 20

Drafted: First Round, 21st Pick

2012-13 Season Averages

13.87 PER, 18.1 MPG, 5.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 1.8 ORPG

Between back issues and a lack of explosive athleticism, Jared Sullinger went from one of the top five players in the nation to the 21st overall selection in the 2012 NBA draft.

20 teams are now wondering whether or not they should have taken a chance on him.

In an average of just 18.1 minutes per game, Sullinger is providing a solid 5.5 points and 5.2 rebounds per game. He leads the Boston Celtics in offensive rebounds.

The pummeling big man has even started three games for Doc Rivers and the Celtics.

As a coach's son, no one can deny that Sullinger has his fundamentals down. From his world-class box-out techniques to his polished low-post game, there is little that Sullinger can't do in said area.

Few expected him to adjust to the NBA's pace so quickly.

He ranks 10th among rookies in value added and estimated wins added. He places third in rebound rate.

His ninth-ranked true shooting percentage of .546 rounds out what has been an excellent rookie season.

Jonas Valanciunas, Toronto Raptors

Position: Center

Age: 20

Drafted: First Round, Fifth Pick (2011)

2012-13 Season Averages

14.54 PER, 22.4 MPG, 7.8 PPG, 5.4 RPG, 1.1 BPG

The first real look the NBA got at Jonas Valanciunas came during the 2012 London Olympics.

During the game, reigning Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler pummeled him along the interior. Valanciunas played just nine minutes after being bullied early on.

Which left a lasting image in the mind of fans league-wide.

Since joining the Toronto Raptors, we've seen a different player. One that is bringing the physicality to his opponents.

Even if it does lead to his committing a high volume of personal fouls.

Thus far, Valanciunas has started all 28 games he has played in 2012-13. The Lithuanian big man ranks fourth among rookie centers in terms of blocks per game.

He ranks fifth in terms of value added and estimated wins added.

A strong rookie campaign from the 20-year-old big man.