NFL Power Rankings: Teams That Will Fall After Week 16 Losses

Week 16 in the NFL: Where the boys separate from the toddlers, and the men separate from the boys.

The playoff picture is rounding into a defined shape—the truly elite teams stratifying into one tier, while the also-rans huddle into a distinctly different mass.

In Week 16, a number of fraudulent teams run the risk of being exposed, some by fellow playoff contenders, and others by squads who have nothing to play for but pride.

Let's take a look at the current power rankings, with an emphasis on teams that will suffer devastating losses on Sunday:

*Note: Highlighted teams are pictured*

1. San Francisco 49ers (10-3-1)

We always knew they had a Super Bowl-caliber defense. With Colin Kaepernick under center, they now at least have the makings of a Super Bowl-caliber offense, too. It's unfair that Alex Smith got Wally Pipp'd, but it was the right move from Harbaugh.

2. Denver Broncos (11-3)

Peyton Manning gets all the love, and really, he deserves it. But don't forget about the defense: They've allowed 24 points or less in every one of Denver's nine straight wins.

3. New England Patriots (10-4)

Beating Houston and San Francisco in back-to-back weeks was a lot to ask—even at home. A rematch with the Niners in less slippery conditions would be a lot of fun to watch.

4. Seattle Seahawks (9-5)

Another week, another 50-point drubbing. Like the Niners—their Week 16 opponent—the offense is quickly catching up to the defense. That has to scare the rest of the league.

5. Green Bay Packers (10-4)

This time last season, the 13-1 Packers were donning a massive target on their back. This year they're flying smoothly and efficiently under the radar. If 2010 is an indication, that's the way Rodgers and Co. like it.

6. Atlanta Falcons (12-2)

Last week's dismantling of the Giants gives Atlanta a slight reprieve from public opprobrium. They've marked their turf, sure, but if they don't keep up the intensity, the respect they earned will be short-lived.

7. Houston Texans (12-2)

The final score was deceiving last Sunday; they destroyed the Colts. But they can't keep letting teams hang around for four quarters. If they do so again this weekend, Minnesota could make them pay.

8. New York Giants (8-6)

What are we supposed to make of this Giants team? Convincing wins over Green Bay and San Francisco are enough to scare any team in the playoffs. But a loss in Baltimore this week could prevent them from even getting that far.

9. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6)

They've gotta be kicking themselves over the game they blew against Dallas. With a win, they'd control their own destiny. Instead, they need to take care of business against Pittsburgh and root for the Giants over Baltimore.

10. Washington Redskins (8-6)

Interesting test for the 'Skins this weekend. Philly has looked brutal, but they could catch Washington looking ahead to a Week 17 showdown with the Cowboys. Good teams win games like this convincingly.

11. Chicago Bears (8-6)

The freefall continues in Chicago. They have a chance to stop the bleeding in Arizona this week, but the Cardinals' defense won't make it easy. Jay Cutler needs to snap out of this funk, and he needs to do so immediately.

12. Baltimore Ravens (9-5)

Things look bad in Baltimore right now, and if not for a few cases of serendipity, they could be even bleaker. The Ravens are a miracle 4th-and-29 conversion away from being 8-6, and a replacement ref-aided win over New England from being 7-7.

The numbers suggest that's about where they belong. Football Outsiders ranks them 12th in weighted DVOA—considerably lower than teams like Carolina.

They'll face a similarly reeling Giants team this weekend with a lot at stake for both sides. New York hasn't inspired confidence the past few weeks, but with their backs against the wall, it's unlikely they'll pull another no-show in Baltimore.

The Ravens won't be able to overcome that.

13. Minnesota Vikings (8-6)

Adrian Peterson's pursuit of Eric Dickerson has overshadowed the Vikings' playoff candidacy. If they find a way to beat Houston, that will no longer be the case—regardless of how AD performs.

14. Indianapolis Colts (9-5)

The Chiefs are pretty awful, but Indianapolis can't let their guard down in Kansas City this weekend. The last thing they need right now is a game that's closer than it should be.

15. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7)

The only way to describe this team is "un-Steeler-like."

After booting a home game against the Chargers, Pittsburgh choked away a game they should have won in Dallas last week. The loss dropped them to 7-7, and as a result, their postseason prospects are squarely on life support.

Andy Dalton has yet to beat the Steelers since joining the Bengals last year, but even though this game is in Pittsburgh, Sunday could represent his best opportunity. His team is playing some of their best football of the season, and the Steelers are stumbling back into the ropes.

Look for Cincinnati to leave Pittsburgh with a much-needed victory.

16. Dallas Cowboys (8-6)

The Cowboys' offense has been kind of anemic the past two weeks. They survived both games against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, but did so largely on the strength of their opponents' similar offensive incompetence.

Against New Orleans, they won't be so lucky.

The Saints played the most complete game of their season last week, throttling Tampa Bay 41-0 in New Orleans. Even with nothing to play for, they showed a renewed sort of spunk that had been missing in previous contests.

If they come out in similar fashion, the Cowboys' defense might not know what hit them—especially in a dome.

17. Miami Dolphins (6-8)

This team deserves a little more love. They won't make it to January, but it wouldn't be too far-fetched to call them one of the 12 best teams in the league.

18. Carolina Panthers (5-9)

Watch out for this team if they ever manage not to stumble off the blocks. After regression appeared to plague most of his season, Cam Newton has re-staked his claim as a legitimate franchise quarterback.

19. New Orleans Saints (6-8)

Hard to tell whether the Saints were that good last week or the Bucs were that bad. I think it was a little but of both. As alluded to above, they're a solid spoiler candidate in Dallas, but only if they decide to show up.

20. St. Louis Rams (6-7-1)

Wasted an opportunity for relevance against the Vikings, but this team is a year or two away from being competitive anyway. He's a little older, but Chris Long's game has a lot of J.J. Watt in it.

21. Cleveland Browns (5-9) 

Finally suffered a blowout loss against the Redskins last week, but that was bound to happen eventually. Especially if, as some have speculated, they took Washington for granted sans Robert Griffin. They won't roll over again in Denver this weekend.

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-8)

Did the Bucs hit a wall or have the past two weeks presaged a bigger issue? I'm not sure they've quit on Greg Schiano per se, but things are staring to look a little messy in Tampa. Hopefully next year starts with a clean slate.

23. Detroit Lions (4-10)

In the grand scheme of things, the Lions haven't been nearly as bad as their record suggests. But if last week existed in a vacuum, they certainly looked like a 4-10 team. Jim Schwartz was hailed as a solution in Detroit, but is it possible he's become more of a problem?

24. Buffalo Bills (5-9)

Maybe having to play in Toronto isn't technically "fair," but there's no excuse for the no-show against Seattle. The Seahawks are pretty great, but the Bills aren't nearly as bad as they looked last week. They need to adjust their attitude more than their personnel.

25. San Diego Chargers (5-9)

They took a big-time step in the wrong direction against Carolina, but things have still looked up (a little bit, at least) in the past few weeks. If the Chargers who beat Pittsburgh show up against the Jets this week, they won't be dropping a second straight game.

26. New York Jets (6-8)

Speak of the devil. The Jets' QBs take a lot of flack—and rightfully so—but their receivers are just as listless. Whomever they bring in to run the show next season, New York needs to provide a lot more weapons on the outside.

27. Arizona Cardinals (5-9)

One win does not a revived season make. The Cards played inspired football last weekend, but the stench of a nine-game losing streak still colors their year. Spoiling the Bears' season in Week 16, however, could help extinguish that odor.

28. Philadelphia Eagles (4-10)

The Eagles host Washington in what will almost certainly be Andy Reid's final home game. An out-of-nowhere upset would be a fitting coda to the coach's fickle tenure in Philly. But that doesn't make it any more likely.

29. Tennessee Titans (5-9)

A Monday night upset over a playoff contender would be much more impressive if that playoff contender wasn't the Jets. Still, even with a lot of holes to plug, the Titans have enough pieces to feel optimistic going forward.

30. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-12)

The quarterback position obviously didn't develop as planned, but the Jags can at least walk away from 2012 feeling good, or at least better, about Justin Blackmon. I know it's a trite comparison, but there's a lot of Dez Bryant in his game.

31. Oakland Raiders (4-10)

Oakland stopped the bleeding against the Chiefs last week, but....well, it was the Chiefs. The Raiders can take solace in the improvement of their passing game, but they need to make monumental changes on defense.

32. Kansas City Chiefs (2-12)

What can you even say at this point? My preseason pick to win the AFC West has instead devolved into the league's worst team. I still think there's hope for the future—and I think it can come as early as next season—but some drastic changes need to be made.