NFL Picks Week 16: Breaking Down Sunday's Best Bets Against the Spread

While some may favor prop bets or the always-inciting over/under lines, betting the standard spread remains the best way to cash in on your NFL knowledge. Though the oddsmakers adjust to trends as the season goes along, there are still weekly missteps, no matter how small, that can be easily exploited by bettors. 

That's certainly the case in Sunday's slate of Week 16 games. Though one solid betting opportunity in the season's second-to-last week already got away on Saturday night, there are a few lines remaining that still scream free money.

With that in mind, here is a look at all of Sunday's best wagers and reasons why they're top-notch bets. 

(All betting lines are courtesy of Bovada, and all teams in italics are ones chosen to win.)

New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars (+14.5)

I'm unsure if I would even consider taking Jacksonville unless the spread was three touchdowns or more. 

Regardless of whether Jacksonville is home or not, this is possibly the biggest statistical mismatch of the year. The Patriots head into Week 16 as by far the No. 1 offense in the NFL, averaging over 25 yards per game more than the second-place Lions.

They will face off against a Jaguars squad that ranks 31st in total defense and allows the fourth-most points in the league as well. 

For those playing the spreads, New England's loss to San Francisco last week could be a massive boon. I'm not normally one to believe in the voodoo like being "motivated by a loss" or any of those other cliche tropes thrown out on Sunday morning studio shows. However, the Patriots' loss to the 49ers last week just seems one of those exception-to-the-rule type of scenarios.

Belichick and Brady don't like losing—especially at home against a contending team. 

The only time this game will feel close is at the opening whistle, and that may even be stretching it. Look for New England to push 50 points in what could be a game that gets uncomfortable to watch real early.

Score Prediction: Patriots 45, Jaguars 14

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-13.5)

For those of you who like to live dangerously, this may be the single most underrated bet of the week. While I have taken my crazy pills and am not picking the Packers to lose at Lambeau, this contest will be far closer than anyone expects.

The reason? Recent history.

Though the Packers have won eight of their last nine games, only two have come by 14 or more points. Wins by less than 14 points include contests against the Jaguars, Lions and Rams—all teams slightly above or at Tennessee's talent level.

Meanwhile, the Titans just aren't a team that gets blown out. Since Jake Locker returned to the lineup, Tennessee is 2-3, and only one of those losses came by more than five points. In fact, in the team's last nine games, only twice has it lost by more than a touchdown.

The Titans are bad, but they're consistently competitive and stick around more often than you think. The Packers, on the other hand, are good, but constantly allow less talented teams to hang around in games. 

This has all the makings of a contest that ends closer than expected, when we all should have sniffed this out from the beginning.

Score Prediction: Packers 27, Titans 21

Chicago Bears at Arizona Cardinals (+6)

One of the most statistically vaunted defenses in NFL history early in the season, the Bears have tapered off a bit the past few weeks. They have given up over 20 points in four of their last five contests, and it's no surprise that the team is 1-4 in those contests.

Well, if there's anyone who can make these Bears look like they took a time machine back to 1985, it's Ryan Lindley.

Obviously, having fun at Lindley's expense has become so widespread that you almost feel bad for the kid. Then you look at his numbers (51.3 completion percentage, zero touchdowns in 141 passes against six interceptions, long completion of 28 yards) and you quickly remember.

None of those stats are even the most indicative of Lindley's struggles. The Cardinals' signal-caller has an 8.1 (on a scale of 100) QBR, which is a little less than a third of Mark Sanchez's rating. What's more, according to Football Outsiders' DVOA metric, Lindley is 66.1 percent worse than a replacement-level quarterback would be against similar opponents.

What would denote a replacement-level quarterback? According to DVOA, that would be Carson Palmer. Lindley is over 60 percent of a downgrade from Carson Palmer. 

In other words, congratulations to those of you who have the Bears defense in fantasy, as you have just won a championship. 

Score Prediction: Bears 31, Cardinals 3

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