Ravens vs. Redskins: Spread Info, Line and Predictions

Fresh off a season-changing win on Monday Night Football, the Washington Redskins (6-6) will play host to the Baltimore Ravens (9-3) in one of the weekend's premier games.

Monday night's tilt with the Giants was Washington's biggest game in five years. And with the primetime pressure bearing down on them, Robert Griffin and––more importantly––the defense showed up in a very big way.

Now an even 6-6, the Redskins (and their favorable late-season schedule) aren't just in the thick of a playoff race; they're public favorites in a playoff race. But before winnable games at Cleveland, at Philly, and vs. Dallas, they must overcome their in-state rivals from Baltimore––a task that's easier said than done.

The Ravens have looked shaky, to say the least, since being decimated by defensive injuries. But they've done a remarkable job at winning close football games, even when they have no business doing so. Last week they missed a golden chance to wrap-up the division against Charlie Batch and Pittsburgh, but still have a two-game lead in the AFC North.

Even with that cushion, however, the Ravens can ill-afford to lose in Washington this weekend. They might not be favored in any of their remaining games (vs. Denver, vs. New York Giants, at Cincinnati), and 9-7 is no sure bet for the postseason.

So with plenty of ramifications on the line, and talent on the field, the Beltway Brawl has more intrigue than it has in quite some time.

Let's take a closer look:

When: Sunday, Dec. 9th – 1:00 p.m. ET

Where: FedEx Field, Landover, Md.

Watch: CBS (check local listings)

Live Stream: NFL Sunday Ticket

Spread: Washington -2.5 (via VegasInsider.com – LVH)

The Skins aren't just one of the hottest teams in the NFL; they're one of the hottest teams in Vegas, too. They're 3-0 ATS the last three weeks, while the Ravens are 1-1-1.

With the public clearly on their side, this game was quickly moved from a pick 'em to Washington -2.5. That's partly a testament to how well the Redskins have played, but it's also a testament to how likable they've become. Especially their quarterback.

This is actually a pretty fair line. Giving the home team three points indicates that Vegas values them evenly. Giving them 2.5 means the road team is valued slightly higher. Seeing as the Ravens rank one spot higher than Washington in the Football Outsiders rankings (10th to the Skins' 11th), I have no qualms with that.

But I value Washington evenly with Baltimore––especially the way both teams have been playing lately.

Take the Redskins to cover.

Over/Under: 47.5 (via VegasInsider.com – LVH)

Since the bye, Baltimore's depleted D has buckled down and allowed only 16.2 points per game. But that's had more to do with their lackluster opponents than it does with a marked improvement.

The truth is, with the players they have available right now, this just isn't a very good defense. It feels weird to say it, but it's true nonetheless.

Not that Washington's is much better. They stepped up in primetime against the (admittedly struggling) Giants offense, but the Skins defense leaves a lot to be desired.

With the likes of Robert Griffin and Ray Rice––two of the league's premier playmakers––going up against two underwhelming defense, it's hard to see this not turning into a shootout.

The number is pretty big, but it won't be big enough. Bet the over.

Baltimore Ravens Injury Report (via USA Today – as of 12/6/12)

Player	Injury	Status
DB James Ihedigbo	Calf	Questionable
LB Josh Bynes	Thigh	Questionable
TE Ed Dickson	Knee	Questionable
LB Terrell Suggs	Bicep	Questionable
LB Dannell Ellerbee	Foot	Questionable
CB Chris Johnson	Thigh	Questionable

Washington Redskins Injury Report (via USA Today – as of 12/6/12)

Player	Injury	Status
CB Josh Wilson	Shoulder	Probable
LB London Fletcher	Ankle	Probable
T Trent Williams	Thigh	Questionable
CB DeAngelo Hall	Ankle	Questionable
DE Doug Worthington	Calf	Questionable
T Jamaal Brown	Hip	Questionable
CB Cedric Griffin	Suspenison	Out

Fantasy Big Plays

Baltimore Ravens: WR Torrey Smith

The Redskins and their underwhelming secondary have been ripe for the picking all season––especially to the deep ball.

Smith was kept in check by the Steelers both times they played, totaling just 40 yards on four catches. But it may simply be a case of Pittsburgh having his number; Smith has scored 10-plus fantasy points in his past three games against anyone other than the Steelers.

Maryland Terps fans––Smith's staunchest supporters––will be lining the stadium in support of both teams. Look for Smith to put on a show for his home-away-from-hometown groupies.

Washington Redskins: RB Alfred Morris

These aren't your daddy's Baltimore Ravens. Alright...maybe they aren't your older brother's Baltimore Ravens. You get what I'm trying to say.

Decimated by injuries, Baltimore's defense has been underwhelming in all facets this season. They've been especially porous agains the run, where Football Outsiders ranks them 25th in the league.

That could be trouble against the Redskins, who lead the NFL in rushing yards. RGIII gets all the hype, and he deserves it, but Alfred Morris is quietly putting together a nice rookie season of his own.

The little-known (unless you play fantasy) bruiser has ripped off consecutive 100-yard games, pushing his season total over 1,000 yards.

Expect more of the same against an uncharacteristically soft Ravens defense.

Key to Victory

Can Baltimore Run the Football?

It'll be strength meets strength when the Ravens are on offense. Baltimore has the fifth-ranked rushing attack in the league (h/t Football Outsiders), but Washington has the 11th-ranked run defense.

The best way to attack Washington is through the air, but that's not how the Ravens operate. They take to the air once they establish the running game. And if they can't successfully run play-action passes, Joe Flacco traditionally struggles.

Early in the game, more than any other juncture of the game, it will be imperative for Washington to shut down Ray Rice. If they can do that, the Ravens' offense will become stagnant, and their own high-powered offense can get them a lead.

If Ray Rice does get going, however, the Ravens can control the clock, keep RGIII on the sideline, and set up their passing game for the second half.

Prediction

This isn't a case of two ships passing each other in the dark, going opposite directions. It's more like one ship catching up to a ship that's been anchored down for a while.

However it shakes out, this will be a watershed game for both teams. Washington has more at stake, but the Ravens need this for the sake of their morale.

There's a chance Washington has an emotional let-down following last week's massive triumph. But I don't think RGIII, Mike Shanahan, or the newly invigorated Redskins faithful will let that happen.

Consider me a full-fledged 3-leiver. 

Predicted Score: Redskins 31, Ravens 24