The Method to My Madness (2009 NCAA Tournament Edition)

Written by James Brown, Gatorsfirst.com Co-Founder

You, too, can aspire to a mediocre finish in your office pool bracket challenge. All you need is to be able to follow my reasoning for picks. Last year, I explained why I made my choices here. 

Each year, down the stretch, I start scouting teams to include in my Final Four. This year, the list looked something like: UNC, Wake Forest, Louisville, Pitt, Kansas, Oklahoma, Michigan State. Once the brackets come out, I whittle my list down based on the seeds. 

This season, I didn’t really have a champion in mind ahead of time. I really wanted to see who had the easy path. Please note of my seven teams I wanted to pick to make a run, four are in the same bracket. Here’s a quick rundown of why I like each team, and reasons I think they could be a bad pick to win it all, according to my thinking pre-bracket:

 

UNC: The good: They are loaded. Roy Williams has the postseason experience. The bad: Do they care? Will they play defense?

Wake Forest: The good: So athletic. The bad: What happened in late January/early February? One and done in the ACC Tourney doesn’t instill confidence, either.

Louisville: The good: Loves me the Pitino. The bad:Uh, too chalk-ish? Predicted to be the No. 1 overall seed, I never like picking those.

Pitt: The good: Know how I always talk about the man crush on Jarvis Varnado? For DeJuan Blair, multiply it by 10. Yeah, that’s almost Chip Kelly level. The bad: There’s a theory out there that the Tourney games are called tighter than usual. And foul trouble for Blair is bad news for this team. So how did Greg Oden lead a team to the Finals?  Anyway, potentially scary.

Kansas: The good: Uh, experience? The bad: Baylor. And no one repeats anymore. Well, anyone not named Billy D.

Oklahoma: The good: No matter who they play, will have the top player on the floor. The bad: Somehow they lose games anyways.

Michigan State: The good:After thug Mateen Cleaves left, I didn’t feel as dirty picking Tom Izzo teams in March. The bad: I really have personal issues considering the Big Eleven good at anything. Yes, anything.

With that in mind, here’s how the entire bracket goes down.

Midwest Regional

Second Round: Louisville, Ohio State, Utah, Wake Forest, West Virginia, Kansas, Boston College, Michigan State

No surprises here, as four of my teams on ‘Final Four Watch’ are in this bracket, so let’s just say I’m not expecting them to go out in round one. I should mention a lot of guys are taking Arizona over Utah as the trendy No. 12 over a No. 5, but not me. I love me some hops of Chase Budinger, but I saw where they were like 170th in the RPI if you consider only games on the road or a neutral court. Ouch. I’m not tying my bracket to that wagon.

Sweet Sixteen: Louisville, Wake Forest, Kansas, Michigan State

Um, I said they could all make the final four, before brackets were released. So even if you could guarantee only 3 of the 4 make it, my bracket will turn out better by doing it this way, getting one of them wrong, instead of guessing the wrong one and only getting 2 of these 4 right. Follow? I call it ‘stategery’. Plus, I think all four teams will make it anyways, so why overthink it just because it’s a region’s top four seeds, and boring?

Regional Championship: Michigan State over Wake Forest

I don’t want to take Louisville as they got the No. 1 overall and that never works out. Except they drew what I consider the toughest region. And Wake Forest is really, really good. I just love taking Michigan State to go deep into tourneys, as they seldom disappoint. At least the times I’ve taken them to go far they haven’t. But really, this region is the most up for grabs. I’ve liked Kansas’ teams for several years, last year was the first year in a while I decided not to have them in my final four, and that didn’t work out. But I don’t think the back-to-back is happening.

West Regional

Second Round: UConn, Texas A&M, Purdue, Mississippi State, Marquette, Missouri, Cal, Memphis

Florida beat Washington. At the time, I said Washington had a team we matched up well with. We match up poorly with Mississippi State. In fact, the Bulldogs run through the SEC Tournament wasn’t that far-fetched, as they dominated the East all season. As far as Texas A&M, I saw this game last year. Picked it correctly then, too. After I angered all the Golden Bears fans at bowl season, maybe picking them to avoid the upset to Maryland is retribution?

Sweet Sixteen: UConn, Mississippi State, Missouri, Memphis

UConn and Memphis were both in the No. 1 seed argument. I think I’m obligated to have them this far. Purdue can actually score points. That is rare in the Big Eleven. But I also know what happens when the SEC and Big Eleven play each other. I think the Jarvis Varnado train continues its run. Missouri is also a nice little run, though I think a lot of that was that every other Big XII team of note took a cue from football and choked in the postseason.

Regional Final: Memphis over UConn

I’ve heard Memphis compared to UNLV of almost 20 years ago. Not in the respect that those guys were completely stacked with the best college team money could buy, but in the respect that they play in a weak conference, but it doesn’t seem to affect them. UConn will mis Jerome Dyson at some point in this tournament, so I think Memphis rolls through this region. I also don’t believe in Thabeet that much.

East Regional

Second Round: Pitt, UT, Wisconsin, Xavier, UCLA, Villanova, Texas, Duke

I don’t believe in FSU. Leonard Hamilton is a good choice and all, but ESPN had some upset watch thing I didn’t fully understand… and FSU was off the charts as the most likely team to get upset. So I’m testing that out. And Wisconsin could give them some problems anyways. I picked UCLA to win the whole thing last year. As much as I like Eric Maynor, I can’t pick the VCU upset. Not again (yes, I called it last year). Of course this means sometime soon I’ll fall in love all over again with Anthony Grant’s team and wonder why I didn’t pull the trigger.

Sweet Sixteen: Pitt, Xavier, Villanova, Duke

I know I’m obligated to say bad things about Duke. And I don’t like them for a long run. But I like them enough to stick them here, especially as Texas lacks a point guard and is waiting on Florida transfer Jai Lucas to save them. Besides, I think Gerald Henderson isn’t your typical Duke star, as he’s actually good at basketball. I think. Plus, Greg Paulus was there for their back-to-back run 15+ years ago, so they have that going for them. Villanova was the easy pick as they are playing home games. And if you remember the intro, I love me some Pitt.

Regional Final: Pitt over Duke

Have I said enough about Pitt yet? And could I live with myself to take Duke?

South Regional

Second Round: UNC, LSU, Western Kentucky, Gonzaga, Arizona State, Syracuse, Clemson, Oklahoma

I’m giving a shout out here to a very good Hilltopper team. It helps that I follow them a little more closely since I’ve seen their campus. They also beat Louisville this season. So, yeah, I think they can handle Illinois. Plus, I like any team with a starter named ‘Slaughter’. It’s one of my personal rules.

Sweet Sixteen: UNC, Gonzaga, Syracuse, Oklahoma

I’ve got a lot of 1-4 seeds in the Sweet Sixteen this year. But that’s because I think there’s like 12-13 teams that are clearly better than everyone else. It’s like a tier system. I also think there is a point to be made that way, way more games are on TV, there are more inter-conference matchups, so the committee should be doing a better job of seeding. Which means the seeds will continue to hold better, like last season.

Regional Final: UNC over Oklahoma

I like betting on UNC to come out with enough passion in Al Horford’s backup’s (i.e. Tyler Hansbrough’s) last year over betting on the one-man team to go on a streak.

Final Four: UNC, Pitt, Michigan State, Memphis

Note the West Region didn’t have anyone I wanted to take to go this far. And they matchup with the Midwest, who had four teams I wanted to take this far. UNC and Pitt, in this scenario, could prove to be better than the final…

Championship: UNC over Memphis

I took Memphis, who I didn’t even want in the Final Four, period, to beat Michigan State, who emerged from the tough regional. This isn’t totally outlandish, and is some more strategy on my part: If I picked the wrong one out of four (Michigan State), I would get really hosed if I had them all the way to the final. But I would not be surprised if any of the big 4 in the Midwest region wins the whole thing. I just think Memphis is the safer pick, and they certainly have the pedigree to make it this far.

I took UNC over Pitt, as I am a little worried, as I mentioned before, that Blair could wind up in foul trouble, and it could end up a disaster for his team. Again, I could easily see them winning the whole thing, too.

I’m taking UNC over Memphis, as I believe they are the most talented and deep team. I think they put it all together. It also doesn’t hurt that after I filled out my bracket, my man Barry picked them as well.  

Tell me how I’m wrong…

In a few hours, make fun of me for my bracket being ruined…

Or, just take me on here. 

Any thoughts?

You can view the original article here.