2013 NFL Mock Draft: Bust Potential for Every First-Round Pick

The 2013 NFL draft lacks the elite talent at the top that we saw in 2012 with Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. As a result, teams such as the Chiefs, Jaguars and Browns will have some tough decisions to make in April.

Obviously raw talent plays a significant role in the creation of a draft board, but with the lack of elite prospects at the top of the draft, teams will also have to factor in their bust potential. 

And so with that in mind, here is the 2013 NFL mock draft featuring an estimate bust potential for each prospect. 

1. Kansas City Chiefs: Geno Smith, QB, West Virginia

Geno Smith has established himself as the premier quarterback in the 2013 draft class, but he's far from a sure thing. While rookies Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III have found immediate success in the NFL, don't expect the same from Smith. 

He has the raw skills necessary to warrant a high pick but his decision-making skills are still a work in progress. As a result, his bust potential is significantly higher than your typical number-one overall selection. 

Bust potential: 40 percent

2. Jacksonville Jaguars: Johnathan Hankins, DT, Ohio State

Johnathan Hankins is a special prospect who can immediately anchor the Jaguars defensive line. He would be the perfect compliment to Tyson Alualu on the interior line and should find immediate success at the next level. 

Defensive tackles can be a tough group to predict at the next level, but Hankins looks about as close to a sure thing as you'll find. His size and athleticism combination is rare and as long as he stays in shape he should be a solid starter for the next decade. 

Bust potential: 15 percent

3. Cleveland Browns: Jarvis Jones, DE/LB, Georgia

Jarvis Jones has excelled as an outside linebacker in Todd Grantham's 3-4 defense at Georgia. But the Browns and other 4-3 teams should still have him high on their draft boards. 

Jones may be one of the safest prospects in this draft class due to his impressive work ethic which the Georgia coaching staff raves about. He has all the raw skills and the intangibles to be an elite pass rusher at the next level. 

Bust potential: 10 percent

4. Carolina Panthers: Star Lotulelei, DT, Utah

Star Lotulelei hasn't always played like a top-five pick this year, but the Panthers run defense is a mess and they can't afford to pass on a player with his talent. 

Due to his inconsistent play Lotulelei is definitely a boom-or-bust prospect. He flashes the ability to be a terror on the interior line, but far too often he disappears for long stretches against inferior opponents. He's a gamble, but the upside all but guarantees him a spot in the top 10.

Bust potential: 40 percent

5. Buffalo Bills: Bjoern Werner, DE, Florida State

There are other defensive ends with more upside than Bjoern Werner, but no one is more well-rounded and better prepared for life in the NFL. 

Werner reminds me of the Rams' Chris Long, who has developed into one of the elite defensive ends at the next level. Even if Werner never reaches that level, he should be a solid starter from the moment he puts on an NFL uniform. 

Bust potential: 5 percent

6. Oakland Raiders: Dee Milliner, CB, Alabama

Dee Milliner lacks the elite athleticism of recent highly-drafted cornerbacks such as Morris Claiborne and Patrick Peterson, but he should still be a safe pick in the top 10. 

One of the most impressive aspects of Milliner's game is how consistently he turns and plays the ball rather than simply mirroring the receiver. That's a skill which will immediately translate to NFL success and should make him an impact player early in his career. 

Bust potential: 10 percent

7. Philadelphia Eagles: Damontre Moore, DE, Texas A&M

The Eagles aging defensive line, which has racked up just 11 sacks this season, needs a guy like Damontre Moore to jump start the pass rush. 

Moore is somewhat one dimensional at this stage in his career. He has the skills to be an elite pass rusher, but he needs to prove he can hold up against the run. The Eagles have the depth to bring him along slowly, which should allow for him to develop into a quality starter within two to three years.

Bust potential: 20 percent

8. Cincinnati Bengals: Manti Te'o, LB, Notre Dame

Manti Te'o lacks the elite physical tools of a typical top-10 pick, but it's difficult to ignore his production. 

Like Luke Kuechly in 2012, Te'o should be a fringe top-10 prospect simply due to the fact that he's one of the safest bets to succeed at the next level. Even if teams don't expect Te'o to reach the elite level of a Brian Urlacher or Ray Lewis, there is very little reason to think he can't be a quality starter and the leader of a defense for the next decade. 

Bust potential: 5 percent

9. St. Louis Rams: Luke Joeckel, OT, Texas A&M

The Rams have struggled to build an offensive line in recent years, but they shouldn't shy away from taking another chance early in the draft. 

Luke Joeckel may not have the highest ceiling of this year's offensive line prospects, but he is one of the safest picks which makes him a good fit for the Rams. He could play either the right or left side depending on how the Rams want to juggle him and Rodger Saffold. 

Bust potential: 15 percent

10. New York Jets: Barkevious Mingo, DE/LB, LSU

The Jets are desperate for a pass rusher and no one in this year's class has a higher ceiling than Barkevious Mingo. 

Some teams may shy away from Mingo due to his modest production at LSU and his relative lack of experience, but the Jets have clearly become a franchise willing to take risks. Mingo's upside will out-weigh the risks for someone and he should still land in the top 10. 

Bust potential: 40 percent

11. Tennessee Titans: Sam Montgomery, DE, LSU

Sam Montgomery may be the antithesis of his teammate Barkevious Mingo. 

While Mingo's upside is clearly higher, Montgomery's production and his well-rounded skill set makes him a much safer pick. A slightly more conservative franchise, such as the Titans, would likely target the safer option and plug him into an immediate starting role. 

Bust potential: 20 percent

12. St. Louis Rams: Keenan Allen, WR, California

Keenan Allen probably shouldn't come off the board this high, but the Rams are desperate for playmakers on offense. 

He doesn't have the highest ceiling, but as the Rams enter year four of the Sam Bradford era, they won't be interested in waiting for a guy like Justin Hunter to go through the typical rookie growing pains. 

Allen has the skills to contribute immediately, and even if he never fully lives up to his draft status, that should be enough to satisfy the Rams.

Bust potential: 25 percent

13. San Diego Chargers: Jake Matthews, OT, Texas A&M

The Chargers' search for a capable right tackle could finally end this year. 

Jake Matthews, the son of Hall of Famer Bruce Matthews, is an ideal right tackle and should be able to step seamlessly into a starting role in San Diego. 

His upside may be slightly limited by modest athleticism, but a team like the Chargers with a glaring hole at right tackle and a desire to win immediately, should be intrigued by his NFL readiness. 

Bust potential: 10 percent

14. New Orleans Saints: John Jenkins, DT, Georgia

John Jenkins, a JUCO transfer, has stepped up as the anchor of Georgia's 3-4 defense this season and his breakout year has him shooting up draft boards. 

It's not easy to find a guy with Jenkins' size to plug holes on the defensive line, but there's always a risk involved when drafting a guy who tips the scale at over 350 pounds. He'll need to keep his weight under control in order to remain an every-down lineman in New Orleans.

Bust potential: 30 percent

15. Dallas Cowboys: Chance Warmack, OG, Alabama

Chance Warmack could start for the Cowboys right now and would be a significant difference maker in the middle of their porous offensive line. 

Offensive guards are typically one of the safest bets in the draft. And when a guy with Warmack's skills turns pro, you can bet on him becoming one of the anchors of his team's offensive line for the foreseeable future. 

Bust potential: 2.5 percent

16. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Johnthan Banks, CB, Mississippi State

The Bucs needed to upgrade their secondary even before the Aqib Talib trade opened up a job at cornerback. 

Johnthan Banks is a notch below Dee Milliner, but should be the consensus number-two cornerback by next April. 

Cornerbacks can be tough to predict as they jump to the next level, but Banks has the size and athleticism to potentially develop into a true number-one. And in Tampa, he may fill that role from the first time he sets foot on the practice field.

Bust potential: 20 percent

17. Miami Dolphins: Tyler Eifert, TE, Notre Dame

Ryan Tannehill has done an admirable job this season despite limited weapons with which to work in Miami. 

While it would be nice to add a number-one receiver, the smart move would be to target Tyler Eifert. Head coach Joe Philbin did an excellent job incorporating Jermichael Finley into the offense in Green Bay and would be able to use Eifert in a similar fashion.

Bust potential: 15 percent

18. Arizona Cardinals: Matt Barkley, QB, USC

As Matt Barkley continues to struggle, the hype machine is finally starting to die down. As of right now, it looks like he'll fall to the middle of the first round to a team such as the Cardinals, which is probably where he belonged all along. 

The Cards have skated by this season with Kevin Kolb and John Skelton, but it's clear that neither is the franchise quarterback they need. If Barkley is still on the board, they would be foolish to not at least consider the option. 

Bust potential: 30 percent

19. Detroit Lions: Dion Jordan, DE, Oregon

Jim Schwartz has built a strong defense in Detroit, but Cliff Avril is their only true pass rush threat. And Avril, who has been on somewhat shaky terms with the team due to past contract negotiations, is set to be come an unrestricted free agent after the season. 

Jordan is a one-dimensional pass rusher at this stage of his career, but the Lions have the depth to bring a guy like him along slowly and use him only in favorable situations early in his career. 

Bust potential: 30 percent

20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan

The fact that Ben Roethlisberger can survive, let alone succeed, behind the Steelers' offensive line is a testament to just how tough he has been over the years. 

Taylor Lewan has the skills to be an elite left tackle and could help protect Big Ben as he slows down in the second half of his career. He still needs time to fully develop, but Roethlisberg's size and toughness will allow them to survive with a rookie left tackle. 

Bust potential: 30 percent

21. Indianapolis Colts: Sheldon Richardson, DT, Missouri

Sheldon Richardson, a JUCO transfer, has burst onto the scene this year and has emerged as one of the premier interior linemen in the SEC.

There's always a concern that a guy like Richardson could be a one-year wonder, or someone motivated by an NFL paycheck, but he's clearly shown he possesses the skills to excel at the next level. He could be a perfect fit in the Colts' hybrid defense. 

Bust potential: 25 percent

22. Denver Broncos: Xavier Rhodes, CB, Florida State

There's a drop-off in talent at cornerback once Dee Milliner and Johnthan Banks are off the board, but Xavier Rhodes appears to be the next man up and could slide into the late first round. 

The Broncos may be willing to reach for a corner to add some depth at the position and to groom Champ Bailey's eventual replacement. 

Bust potential: 20 percent

23. New England Patriots: Barrett Jones, C/G, Alabama

Bill Belichick loves to be able to shift his offensive linemen around to fill holes when someone goes down and, as a result, he's drawn to versatile linemen. That should put Barrett Jones, who has played tackle, guard and center for the Crimson Tide, high on the Patriots' draft board. 

The Patriots have holes to fill at both guard and center, making Jones a perfect fit. 

Bust potential: 10 percent

24. Seattle Seahawks: Justin Hunter, WR, Tennessee

It's impossible to ignore Justin Hunter's elite talent, which is why he'll find his way in the first round of the draft. 

However, it's equally impossible to ignore his lack of focus on the field which has led to far too many drops this season. 

A team with the talent to compete immediately will probably roll the dice on him in the late first round. It's a risk, but the Seahawks need to find a playmaker and Hunter could be a steal this late in the draft. 

Bust potential: 40 percent

25. Minnesota Vikings: Jesse Williams, DT, Alabama

Jesse Williams, who was born in Australia and arrived at Alabama after a JUCO stint, has emerged as one of the elite nose tackles in college football. 

He's an impressive athlete for his size and should fit nicely into the middle of the Vikings defensive line. Their front seven could use a nose tackle to help anchor the defense and Williams may be the guy to help take this defense to the next level. 

Bust potential: 25 percent

26. Baltimore Ravens: Eric Reid, S, LSU

Ed Reed won't be around much longer and the Ravens don't have anyone capable of filling his shoes on the current roster. 

Eric Reid has a long way to go before he's ready to be compared to Reed, but he has flashed the raw skills necessary to be a quality safety at the next level. He also possesses the size and athleticism combination to play either safety position, which should make it easier to justify spending a first-round pick on him.

Bust potential: 25 percent

27. New York Giants: C.J. Mosley, LB, Giants

The Giants inconsistent defense may be the only thing holding them back from establishing themselves as the team to beat in the NFC. And it all stems from the poor play of their linebackers.

C.J. Mosley is still developing, but the Giants have the depth at the position to bring him along slowly and work him into the rotation. 

Bust potential: 25 percent

28. San Francisco 49ers: Tavon Austin, WR, West Virginia

Jim Harbaugh has built a quality offense in San Francisco despite a lack of elite weapons. Just imagine what he could pull off once he can add a few playmakers. 

Tavon Austin may not ever put up the numbers of a typical first-round receiver, but he would be a luxury pick for the 49ers. If you view the pick in that light, he's a safe bet to provide an instant spark on offense. 

Bust potential: 15 percent

29. Green Bay Packers: Matt Elam, S, Florida

The Packers' downfall this year may end up being their secondary. And it could get worse before it gets better if Charles Woodson hangs up the cleats this year. 

Matt Elam is a fringe first-round prospect who may be a slight reach here, but the Packers have few other holes and are desperate for an upgrade in the secondary. 

Bust potential: 25 percent

30. Chicago Bears: Eric Fisher, OT, Central Michigan

There may not be a safer bet than the Bears targeting a left tackle in the first round of the draft. They need to upgrade the protection around Jay Cutler and it wouldn't be out of the question for them to trade up to make it happen. 

If they stay put in the late first round, Eric Fisher should be high on their board. He's a fundamentally sound lineman who should be able to step in as a rookie and hold his own. 

Bust potential: 20 percent

31. Houston Texans: Terrence Williams, WR, Baylor

The Texans have established themselves as legitimate Super Bowl contenders, so they can afford to reach to make a luxury pick.

Terrence Williams is probably more of a second-round prospect, but this isn't a great class of wide receivers and Matt Schaub could really use another weapon. In Houston, there would be no pressure on Williams to perform immediately, allowing him to develop over the course of two or three years before taking on a larger role in the offense. 

Bust potential: 40 percent

32. Atlanta Falcons: Ezekiel Ansah, DE, Brigham Young

Ezekiel Ansah is this year's Jason Pierre-Paul. He's still learning the game of football after initially going to BYU to run track, but he's coming into his own this year and showing signs of developing into an elite pass rusher. 

The Falcons don't need to add a starter on the defensive line, but would be wise to bring in a guy like Ansah to groom as John Abraham's eventual replacement. 

Bust potential: 35 percent

2nd Round. Washington Redskins: Robert Woods, WR, USC

It's hard to believe Robert Griffin III has excelled in Washington's offense this year with the limited talent around him. 

The Redskins need to add another playmaker and a guy like Robert Woods would be the perfect fit. Woods excels on short and intermediate routes, which fits perfectly with how the Redskins have run their offense with Griffin at the helm.

Bust potential: 35 percent