Bills vs. Patriots: Spread Info, Line and Predictions

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots have been polar opposites in divisional play this season. While the Patriots have dominated in the AFC East, going 2-0 with an average winning margin of nearly two touchdowns, the Bills have struggled, losing by an average of 22 points per game.

This AFC East rivalry is one of the most lopsided in sports over the last 10 years. After the Bills won at home in 2003 to start the season, the Pats won 15 straight games and have won 17 of the last 18 meetings.

However, hope springs eternal in Buffalo, and the Bills will be looking to make up for an embarrassing 52-28 loss at home earlier this season after going up 21-7 and proceeding to give up six straight touchdowns.

Now it's time for the Patriots to host Buffalo, and while it will be even more difficult for the Bills to win on the road, it's not impossible. Crazier things have happened.

Where: Gillette Stadium

When: Sunday, November 11 at 1 p.m. ET

Watch: CBS

Live Stream: NFL.com

Spread: New England (-11) (via Bovada)

After New England toasted the Bills in Week 4, you might think that the spread in this game would be even larger. It's already one of the largest in the NFL for Week 10, but the Bills have been so bad against the Patriots that this may be generous.

The Pats are coming off a bye week, and whenever you give Tom Brady and Bill Belichick and extra week to prepare, you're in serious trouble. Since 2003 the Pats are 8-1 when coming off a bye week, including three straight victories against Buffalo from 2005 to 2007.

While the Bills did put up a fight against the Houston Texans last week, that was coming off of their own bye week, and I can't see them doing so against the Patriots.

Over/Under: 52 (via Bovada)

The last time these two teams met the Patriots put up 52 points all by themselves. While I'm not saying that that will happen again, there is always the possibility.

I could easily see the Pats putting up four or five touchdowns this week, which leaves the question up to you: Can the Bills make up the rest?

With both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson healthy, and the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for four touchdowns against the Pats in Week 4, I'm taking the over on this one.

Buffalo Injury Report (via Yahoo! as of Nov. 8, 2012)

Eric Wood C	Probable	Knee
Mario Williams DE	Probable	Wrist
Kyle Williams DT	Questionable	Ankle
Chris White LB	Probable	Back
Kraig Urbik G	Probable	Ankle
C.J. Spiller RB	Probable	Shoulder
Brad Smith WR	Probable	Chest
Justin Rogers CB	Probable	Thigh
Andy Levitre G	Probable	Knee
Chris Kelsay DE	Probable	Ankle
Donald Jones WR	Probable	Low back
Spencer Johnson DE	Probable	Ankle
Chris Hairston T	Probable	Knee
T.J. Graham WR	Probable	Ankle
Cordy Glenn T	Questionable	Ankle
Marcell Dareus DT	Probable	Shoulder
Ron Brooks CB	Probable	Foot
Mark Anderson DE	Out	Knee

New England Injury Report (via Yahoo! as of Nov. 8, 2012)

Vince Wilfork DT	Probable	Illness
Kyle Love DT	Probable	Knee
Wes Welker WR	Questionable	Ankle
Sebastian Vollmer T	Questionable	Back, knee
Sterling Moore S	Questionable	Knee
Nick McDonald G	Questionable	Shoulder
Jerod Mayo LB	Questionable	Elbow, illness
Logan Mankins G	Questionable	Calf, hip
Brandon Lloyd WR	Questionable	Knee
Dont'a Hightower LB	Questionable	Hamstring
Rob Gronkowski TE	Questionable	Hip
Julian Edelman WR	Questionable	Hand
Ron Brace DT	Questionable	Back
Tracy White LB	Out	Foot
Trevor Scott DE	Out	Hamstring
Aaron Hernandez TE	Out	Ankle
Steve Gregory S	Out	Hip
Brandon Bolden RB	Out	Knee
Patrick Chung S	Out	Shoulder

Fantasy Big Plays

Buffalo: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

He may have thrown four interceptions in Week 4, but he also threw for 350 yards and four scores as well. Putting up an impressive 21 points, Fitzpatrick was a viable option in Week 4.

This time around, the Bills will likely go down early in the game since their defense has been abysmal this year, giving up an average of 31 points per game.

Once the Bills go down, they will be throwing the ball constantly, giving Fitzpatrick a ton of opportunities against the No. 28 pass defense in the league.

Projected Stats: 24-for-49, 307 yards, 2 TD, 3 INT

New England: RB Stevan Ridley

The Bills have arguably the worst run defense in the NFL this year, giving up nearly 170 yards on the ground per contest and surrendering the most points to opposing fantasy running backs.

The Bills gave up 50 fantasy points to the Patriots' running backs in Week 4, including 22 to Ridley and 20 to Brandon Bolden.

Bolden has missed the last two games and is listed a questionable for Sunday, which means that Ridley will be getting almost all of the carries this week. Look for him to have the game of his life on Sunday.

Projected Stats: 31 rushes, 142 yards, 2 TD

Key to Victory

The Battle in the Trenches

The old cliche that the game of football is won and lost in the trenches couldn't be more accurate to describe this game.

Buffalo's defensive line, that was supposed to be among the NFL's best this season, has struggled mightily, including sacking Brady only once when these two teams first met.

Brady is unstoppable if given enough time, and his offensive line certainly gave him that and more in Week 4. If the Bills can't get in the backfield, they can't stop Brady, and they certainly won't be able to bottle up the run.

On the other side of things, New England recorded three sacks against the Bills in Week 4, constantly pressuring Ryan Fitzpatrick and forcing errant throws (hence his four interceptions).

If Buffalo's offensive line continues to struggle, it will be a long day for Fitzpatrick and the running backs.

Prediction

The Patriots appear to have just about every advantage possible in this game. Home-field advantage, an extra week to prepare and a hot Tom Brady who has thrown for 958 yards and eight touchdowns over his last three games.

Brady is 10-0 against the Bills at home in his career, and I see him improving that record to 11-0 on Sunday.

Patriots 56, Bills 20

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