Free Agent Frenzy: Predicting the Landing Spot of 10 Top Free Agents

Like any offseason, there are bound to be surprises in the free agent market this winter. Hardly anyone correctly predicted the landing spot of many free-agents last offseason. How many saw Albert Pujols leaving St. Louis for Anaheim? Anyone think the Tigers would shell out $214 million for Prince Fielder? 

In the tradition of wrongly—and sometimes grossly—predicting the landing spots of some of the top free agents on the market, I will give it a shot myself.  Here are potential deals I can envision happening this winter, both the teams they sign with and the guaranteed portion of their contracts.   

Some might seem crazy on the surface, but I think each makes at least a little bit of sense.

Josh Hamilton: Seattle Mariners

Maybe this seems a bit out of left field (no pun intended), but with the Mariners playing second fiddle to the rest of the American League West it may be time from them to make a splash. And Josh Hamilton fits the bill.

Ever since moving into spacious Safeco Field—they’ve finally decided to move the fences in—the Mariners have struggled offensively. With franchise player Felix Hernandez scheduled to become a free agent following the 2014 season, NOW is the time to prove to him that they will do whatever it takes to become competitive.  

With only Hernandez guaranteed money past the 2013 season, finances should not be a concern. The Mariners have a good core of young players—Dustin Ackley, Jesus Montero and Justin Smoak. Adding a former MVP would only benefit the club.

However, signing Hamilton won’t be cheap, especially for the Mariners. If Hamilton were to agree to go to Seattle, it will be for one reason and one reason only—money. He and the team can spin it however they want, but it will be about the money.

Contract: Six years, $160 million

Michael Bourn: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox currently have Jacoby Ellsbury patrolling center field and don’t appear to be a player for Michael Bourn, who is also a Scott Boras client. However, rumors have been circulating that Boston is looking to deal Ellsbury and could preempt that move by signing Bourn.

After their massive trade with Los Angeles in the summer the Red Sox freed up a ton of payroll space. They need pitching more than anything else, and by signing Bourn to be their center fielder and leadoff hitter, it would enable them to deal Ellsbury for that pitching.

Contract: Six years, $85 million

BJ Upton: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have made no secret their desire to upgrade their outfield this offseason, and no player on the market fits the profile of their perfect player more than BJ Upton. He’s a talented, right-handed hitting slugger who plays an exceptional center field. At 28 he is just entering his prime and his best years are ahead of him.

With the need, the available payroll space and a general manager who likes to strike quickly and (what he believes to be anyway) efficiently, it’s hard to imagine BJ Upton wearing anything but Phillies red next season.

Contract: Six years, $75 Million

Zack Greinke: Atlanta Braves

It’s been a long time since the Braves signed a marquee free agent, and with Chipper Jones having played his final game Atlanta needs someone to fill the void in fans minds. An organization that has always craved pitching lands its target this offseason—ace right-hander Zack Greinke.  

It will cost a fortune, and take out-bidding Arte Moreno, but with very little guaranteed money on their books going forward it shouldn’t be a problem.  

Contract: Five years, $125 million

Nick Swisher: Texas Rangers

This offseason the Rangers stand to lose two of their primary offensive producing players in Josh Hamilton and Mike Napoli, and will need to replenish that production. Switch-hitting outfielder Nick Swisher could help fill that void.  

Capable of playing both corner outfield positions, as well as first base and DH, Swisher could be a jack-of-all-trades for the Rangers in hitter-friendly Rangers Ballpark in Arlington.

Contract: 5 Years, $80 million

Angel Pagan: San Francisco Giants

Angel Pagan played very well for the Giants in 2012, and helped lead them to their second World Championship in three years. While good general managers don’t get caught up in needing to keep together a championship roster, this is one area where it would be smart to hang on to one of their free agents.

Pagan will have interest outside the San Francisco area, but the draw of playing for the defending World Champions will pull him back.

Contract: 5 Years, $51 Million

Kyle Lohse: Detroit Tigers

With Mike Illitch itching for a World Series Championship before father time catches up with him, the Tigers will not be shy about opening their checkbook again this summer. With Victor Martinez returning from his year away and Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera already in the fold, Detroit will probably look to enhance their pitching staff and sign free agent right-hander Kyle Lohse.

While Lohse wouldn’t have helped much during their World Series loss to the Giants, his presence probably would have made the division race much easier. The Tigers have the best pitcher in the game and a number of young quality arms behind him. However, one can never have enough pitching.

Contract: Four years, $68 Million

Melky Cabrera: New York Mets

After testing positive for performance enhancing drug usage, Melky Cabrera’s list of suitors, and his potential contract demands, have dropped. However, he’s still young, a switch hitter who plays solid defense, has experience in all three outfield positions and has seemingly matured into his abilities in the last couple of years.

The Mets have had trouble with free agents in recent years, and as such will tread carefully.

Instead of breaking the bank (again) to sign a Josh Hamilton or Michael Bourn, the Mets will play it safe and buy low on Cabrera. His deal will probably include incentives and options that increase his pay, but with his 50-game suspension still on everyone’s minds, Cabrera will have to deal with the fallout of cheating and getting caught.

Contract: Two Years, $18 million

Mike Napoli: Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays are typically not in the business of signing free agents, unless they’re picking up a player off the scrap heap, but Mike Napoli makes a lot of sense for him. He won’t be (too) expensive, has experience catching and playing first base and is a plus offensive performer.  

Following his career-year in 2011 Napoli regressed, but still belted 24 home runs and finished with an OPS of .812. His career production has been a lot closer to his 2012 performance rather than 2011, and undoubtedly that will lower his price and possibly bring him in line with what Tampa Bay can pay.

Contract: Three years, $35 Million

Edwin Jackson: New York Yankees

How many times does a free agent period go by and the Yankees are not active? With the game’s highest payroll, and Hal Steinbrenner insisting on getting below the tax threshold by 2014, the Yankees are not going to be the shoppers they’ve been in the past.

But they’re also a team with needs, especially starting pitching behind CC Sabathia.  

Edwin Jackson could be a perfect fit. A veteran, durable performer who’s pitched for practically every team in every city in baseball, and yet is still only 29 years old. With neither Hiroki Kuroda nor Andy Pettite assured of returning, bringing in Jackson makes sense. He has a plus arm and experience pitching in both the American League East and in big games.

Contract: Four years, $65 million