NFL Picks Week 9: Picking Winners of Slimmest Spread Margins

There are plenty of dramatics in store for Week 9 of the NFL season, and the games that have the slimmest spread margins offer some of Sunday's most intriguing matchups.

Heavy favorites may be the focus as the playoff picture comes more into focus, but there are plenty of teams still scrapping for playoff position, as is evident in this quartet of games.

Here is a look at what the oddsmakers believe will be the most tightly contested showdowns on this week's slate.

(Note: Spread margins courtesy of Bovada)

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts

Spread: Miami (-1)

Other than Houston's Matt Schaub in Week 1, here is the list of quarterbacks the Dolphins have faced in 2012: Carson Palmer, Mark Sanchez twice, Andy Dalton and Sam Bradford.

Yet the Dolphins are still just 27th in the league against the pass. Although Indy has run it more frequently in recent weeks, the ball is still ultimately in the already-capable hands of No. 1 overall pick Andrew Luck.

His numbers aren't exactly pretty, but Luck has guided what was widely considered the worst team in preseason power rankings to a respectable 4-3 record.

In fact, check out this bit of information provided by SI.com's Peter King:

"

If the playoffs began today, the AFC Wild Card games would feature Andrew Luck at Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill at Peyton Manning.

— Peter King (@SI_PeterKing) October 31, 2012

"

Yup, this game has huge playoff implications.

Reggie Bush should have a stellar game with one of the league's worst run defenses up against him. However, that depends on how well QB Ryan Tannehill—or his backup Matt Moore—can throw the ball.

It seems the Colts would have an easier time stacking the box and letting Tannehill or Moore beat them rather than the Dolphins dropping in coverage to try to stop Luck and his passing attack.

Luck has already displayed the ability to check out of plays at the line of scrimmage and put his offense in position to succeed. His very underrated mobility will also neutralize the torrential Miami pass rush led by Cameron Wake.

Only a dramatic last-minute win by Jacksonville has prevented an undefeated home record for the Colts. That will remain their lone defeat after Week 9 is over thanks to stellar defense and the most efficient game of Luck's young career.

Final score: Colts 20, Dolphins 10

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Oakland Raiders

Spread: Oakland (-1)

Carson Palmer said before the season that he had never been so excited to play football in his entire career. That tune had to have changed in the early going, but the return of favorite WR Denarius Moore and a rapidly improving defense should have Palmer and Co. optimistic again.

Oakland came off of its Week 5 bye looking like a totally different team, nearly beating the undefeated Atlanta Falcons on the road. Two wins over Jacksonville and at Kansas City have followed.

Meanwhile, Greg Schiano has the Bucs playing inspired football as of late. First-round running back Doug Martin had a breakout game on Thursday night, and the extra rest should help Tampa Bay combat the long trip to the Black Hole.

The only problem is, top CB Aqib Talib was just traded to the New England Patriots at the deadline (h/t The Ledger), and the next-best Bucs corner is Eric Wright, who happens to be absolutely terrible in the context of Pro Football Focus' pass coverage rating.

Even before Talib left, Tampa was already 31st in the league against the pass, making the move all the more head-scratching.

Sure, it makes sense from the standpoint that his contract was to expire this offseason and GM Mark Dominik at least got some value for him. But that pass defense is still really, really bad and just got even worse.

It's hard to imagine Palmer not throwing for 300 yards, which will force the Bucs to abandon the run more than Schiano would like. Josh Freeman has lit up putrid secondaries lately, but will be a bit too inaccurate and mistake-prone on the road for Tampa Bay to win this one.

Final score: Raiders 26, Buccaneers 20

Carolina Panthers at Washington Redskins

Spread: Washington (-3.5)

It's been true for several weeks. The game in Pittsburgh didn't prove anything to the contrary. Of course, I am referring to the Redskins and their horrendous secondary.

Rookie QB Robert Griffin III must feel like he never left college. If his Baylor teammates could have stopped the opponent even a reasonable amount of times, he might be a national champion. If the Redskins could prevent an opponent from throwing for an average of 314 yards per contest, Washington may very well be in the Super Bowl conversation.

The Steelers' complex defense finally brought RGIII down to earth in Week 9, but a much more favorable matchup at home awaits. To be fair, Carolina's defense is definitely better than a year ago thanks to the return of Jonathan Beason and addition of first-rounder Luke Kuechly to the linebacker corps.

But that's not saying much. This has all the makings of a shootout between two very highly touted, dual-threat QBs in Griffin and Cam Newton, who is in the midst of a bit of a sophomore slump. Somehow, the Panthers continue to find ways to lose.

That will continue in FedEx Field on Sunday.

Final score: Redskins 31, Panthers 28

Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Giants

Spread: New York (-3.5)

Eli Manning has quietly been mired in a minor slump, having thrown just two TDs and three INTs in his past three starts. The good news for the G-Men is that they have won on all three occasions, and suddenly sport an uncharacteristically good running game.

Of course, nearly blowing a 23-0 lead in Dallas last week isn't the most encouraging sign. Tom Coughlin's resilient bunch managed to get the "W" though, and now play host to a hot Pittsburgh team that has been recently successful despite the absence of superstar safety Troy Polamalu.

Speaking of solid rushing attacks, Jonathan Dwyer has solved the injury issues that have plagued the Steelers backfield by gaining over 100 yards in his first two career starts.

This late afternoon tilt in MetLife Stadium is about as good as it gets for football fans, and will likely come down to the wire. Manning is due for a breakout game after playing relatively mediocre football recently, and the Giants are in great position to break open the NFC East division and go 7-2.

Winning this one isn't as crucial for Pittsburgh, who now sit just one game back of the decimated Baltimore Ravens in a very weak AFC North. That's not to say the Steelers won't try to snag a road victory, though.

It will be a tight one, but the home team will pull out a victory with a late insurance TD on yet another clutch Manning throw.

Final score: Giants 34, Steelers 24