NFL SpreadSHREDDER, Week 7: Rams (Jeff) Fishing for an Upset over Packers

Travel is an inhibiting factor to NFL teams.  Almost every team goes on a stretch of games where a significant time is spent on the road, battling hostile environments and the general fatigue implicit of foreign surroundings.  

Many deceptive lines seem reasonable based on hollow indicators such as prestige and win-loss records, however most underdogs have an inherent edge based on the inevitable jetlag that eventually conspires to do in a sizable favorite. 

[SpreadSHREDDER Week 6 ATS: 3-0]

[Overall Record ATS: 13-5]

[Lines from Sportsbook.com via VegasInsider.com and FiveDimes.com]

St. Louis (+5.5) over Green Bay

The Green Bay Packers returned to form on a national stage last Sunday after a blowout victory over the previously undefeated Houston Texans.  While the sentiment in Green Bay is that the Pack is back, expect a natural letdown in a trap game now that their backs have come off the wall a bit. 

Green Bay will be playing their third road game in four weeks as they prepare to take on the underrated St. Louis Rams who have overachieved as home underdogs all year behind turnaround-minded head coach Jeff Fisher. 

Still in a tight division race, the Rams have increased incentive to continue their undefeated streak at home and keep pace in the suddenly competitive NFC West. 

Prediction: St. Louis: 26, Green Bay: 24

Indianapolis (-1) over Cleveland

Coming off of an embarrassing loss to the Jets, while clearly feeling the effects of an emotional letdown following their comeback win over the Green Bay Packers, the Indianapolis Colts have likely gone through an intense week of practice to better put themselves in position for a bounce-back win at home. 

Cleveland is coming off of an emotional, big score win following a 34-24 victory over division rival Cincinnati Bengals, yet they must play their third road game in four weeks against an out-of-division opponent. 

The match up for Cleveland as a one-point underdog is far from encouraging.  Their Browns bottom-ten pass defense must now contend with a team that throws the ball 65 percent of the time and will certainly look to air it out in the indoor passing haven of Lucas Oil Stadium. 

Prediction: Indianapolis: 27, Cleveland: 13

Dallas (-1) over Carolina

The Dallas Cowboys have value in must-win mode given the high standards and perennially competitive nature of this franchise. 

Far from matchup proof, Cam Newton has struggled mightily when faced with elite secondaries, and the Dallas Cowboys were atop the entire league in pass defense heading into Week 7. 

The Carolina Panthers are in the bottom ten in the league in terms of run defense, and now must contend with a vastly improved rushing attack from the Dallas Cowboys that gashed a similarly weak Baltimore run defense for 227 yards last week. 

Look for the desperate Dallas Cowboys to handily defeat the second-year coach and quarterback tandem of Ron Rivera and Cam Newton. 

Predictions: Dallas: 31, Carolina: 14

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