Week 7 Picks: Predicting Every NFL Game Against the Spread

Going into Week 7, it's completely understandable if you take my picks with a Jerome Bettis-sized grain of salt after last week's 2-12 stink bomb. That awful showing was indicative of this 2012 NFL season. It's hard to get a grasp on teams on a week-to-week basis because anything can happen.

A week after letting one slip away against the rebuilding Colts, the Packers go into Houston and destroy a then-undefeated Texans team. After shutting down the Jets and Bills in back-to-back weeks, the 49ers let the Giants run wild on them. The Browns pulled off an upset few saw coming. The Lions, Cowboys and Raiders all managed to muster up enough fight to cover the spread.

At this point, you'd be better served closing your eyes and picking teams out of a hat. It's that kind of unpredictability that makes football enjoyable. Nobody is ever really out of it, not even Peyton Manning and the Broncos down 24-0 at halftime against the Chargers. Every week, we get a new reason to change our outlook on different teams.

Remember when the Cardinals looked like this year's Niners, surprising teams with steady game management and tough defense? Now they are back to being the same putrid Cardinals they've been since Kurt Warner hung 'em up.

This week, there's nowhere to go but up. At 39-49-2 for the season, perhaps I can pull off a turnaround performance this week much like Green Bay did last week.

As always, the spreads are brought to you courtesy of USA Today's Danny Sheridan.

Seattle Seahawks (+7) at San Francisco 49ers

The Pick: Seattle

The Seattle Seahawks have an innate ability to make opposing teams look bad. Their defense slows offenses down just enough to allow Russell Wilson and company to sneak out a victory. That was the case against Green Bay, and that was the case again last week against New England. The best offenses in this league can't seem to get going against this Seahawks team.

The San Francisco 49ers have a great defense in their own right, even if it wasn't as evident last week against the Giants. That's why I think this one will be decided by less than a touchdown. Neither team has an impressive enough offense to completely pull away. Seattle's offense is built around RB Marshawn Lynch, but he's not going to find much room to run against this Niners D.

The Niners have a little bit more balance on offense, but QB Alex Smith is tough to rely on on a weekly basis. Will he be the guy who picked apart the Jets and Bills, or will he be closer to the injured signal-caller who struggled against Big Blue? If Seattle can manage to hinder Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady, what makes Smith any different?

That's why I think Seattle, at the very least, covers the spread here. It's two teams with subpar offenses and great defenses playing on a short week. That's not a recipe for a shootout. The kickers are going to be the star of the show in this one. I think San Francisco's desperation compels them to the win, but only by a field goal.

Score: 49ers 17, Seahawks 14

Tennessee Titans (+3.5) at Buffalo Bills

The Pick: Tennessee

Titans RB Chris Johnson is starting to show signs that he's capable of resembling something other than a rotting cadaver in Tennessee's backfield. The problem is, he can't do it on a consistent enough basis for me to truly believe he's back to form. Lucky for him, he draws Buffalo's terrible run defense while coming off 10 days of rest following the Titans upset of the Steelers last Thursday.

If Tennessee is smart enough to put the ball in Johnson's hands and let him do his thing, it will open it up for a passing game that is slowly getting better as long as WR Kenny Britt can stay healthy and out of trouble.

The biggest obstacle for the Titans will be Buffalo's two-headed monster of RB's Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. Spiller got off to a hot start in Jackson's absence, and the two form a excellent combo together now that F-Jax is back. The key for Buffalo is staying in the game long enough so that it isn't forced to abandon the run.

The Bills' passing game is pretty woeful. WR Stevie Johnson went from one of the game's better receivers to an afterthought. If QB Ryan Fitzpatrick connects with anyone these days, it's big TE Scott Chandler. Buffalo doesn't have enough offense to keep up with Tennessee, especially if Johnson gashes the Bills like he did at times against the Steelers.

The Titans have better balance on offense, and unless their defense completely implodes, they should pull off the "upset" by at least a touchdown.

Score: Titans 20, Bills 13

Arizona Cardinals (+6) at Minnesota Vikings

The Pick: Minnesota

If you read my picks last week, you'll know that I campaigned for Vikings RB Adrian Peterson to get some MVP consideration based on his improbable comeback and the even more improbable success of the Vikings. Peterson rewarded me for my co-signing by going out an laying a 17-carry, 79-yard pedestrian performance against Washington last week.

Thanks, All Day.

This week, however, I fully expect A.P. to make up for last week's disappointment. The Cardinals run defense is near the bottom of the league, and Peterson should see some more work as he continues to recover from knee surgery. That will open things up for QB Christian Ponder and the passing game.

The Cardinals will be trotting out John Skelton again to man the quarterback position after a rib injury sidelined their former season savior, Kevin Kolb. With the lack of protection Arizona is getting up front, this has the makings of being a nightmare week for Skelton against this Minnesota pass rush. It doesn't help matters for Skelton that the run game continues to disappoint.

For fantasy football nuts reading this, I'm expecting a big game for everything Minnesota-related. That means Peterson, Ponder, WR Percy Harvin, TE Kevin Rudolph, the Vikings' defense and maybe even Prince. Skelton's rusty and facing a good defense with a bad offensive line and no running game. I'd be surprised if Arizona scores in the double-digits this week.

Score: Vikings 27, Cardinals 9

Cleveland Browns (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts

The Pick: Cleveland

Need more proof that the season changes from week to week? Check out these two teams.

The Colts followed up their upset win over Green Bay two weeks ago by completely laying down against a suspect Jets team. QB Andrew Luck's trademark accuracy was on vacation, as he only completed 50 percent of his passes against a New York defense missing its best cover corner in Darrelle Revis.

Meanwhile, the Browns, who have looked like the worst team in football all season leading up to their clash with the Bengals, won the Battle of Ohio by throttling Cincinnati. Making that win more impressive was that rookie RB Trent Richardson missed some of the game with a rib injury, leaving Montario Hardesty to pick up the slack.

I'm taking the Browns here on a hunch. The defense, while ranked 29th against the pass, has the tendency to show up at weird moments. CB Joe Haden is back and he's going to put the clamps on Luck's favorite target, WR Reggie Wayne. Indianapolis doesn't have a running game to bail it out unless rookie RB Vick Ballard shows us something new this week.

I've been wrong on the Colts all season, so I don't feel particularly good about this one. However, I want to see Luck take care of business in a game he's supposed to win first before I hop back on their wagon. Last week should have been a gimme for them, and the story here should be whether the Colts can take advantage of soft schedule.

Instead, these two teams look suspiciously even, which is why I'll take the points.

Score: Browns 24, Colts 20

Baltimore Ravens (+7) at Houston Texans

The Pick: Houston

The Baltimore Ravens were my preseason pick to not only represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but to win it all. Now, I think they are finished. The injury to LB Terrell Suggs was a tough enough toll on this defense. With MLB Ray Lewis and CB Ladarius Webb out as well, the once-vaunted Ravens defense looks a lot more pedestrian.

The Ravens hope Lewis can come back this season, which is why he was put on the injured reserve with a designation to return. The loss of Lewis has been overblown by both fans and critics. On the field, Lewis has looked every bit of 37 years old. His trademark speed isn't there, and he's simply a good athlete trying to defy Father Time with his instincts.

That doesn't mean Lewis' absence doesn't hurt. Even with his skills diminished, there isn't anyone behind Lewis who can do what he does. However, even out of uniform, Lewis can still make his most important impact. There is NOBODY in the NFL who can rile up a defense quite like one Ray Lewis does during one of his pre-game speeches. Lewis' intensity is unrivaled, and it can drive the meekest of players into a crazed dog.

Lewis will be missed. It won't be as much as diehards fear, but certainly more than the pessimists are willing to believe. The loss of Webb is a bigger blow as the team's best cover corner, but that can be softened by former first-round pick Jimmy Smith stepping up. It also helps that Suggs is expected to suit up this week for the first time this season.

The Texans showed some weakness last week against Green Bay. Perhaps they took the Packers' loss to the Colts a week prior as a reason to take them lightly or maybe the Packers are back to normal. Regardless, Houston won't make the same mistake here against the Ravens.

Houston will batter a soft Ravens run defense while taking advantage of Webb's absence by getting WR Andre Johnson involved more often. The Ravens beat the Texans in the playoffs last year mostly because they were the healthier team.

This week, the shoe is on the other foot.

Score: Texans 27, Ravens 17

Green Bay Packers (-5.5) at St. Louis Rams

The Pick: Green Bay

We've been here before. The Packers are riding high after an impressive win and go on the road against a hapless team they should easily beat. The last time we were here, the Packers ended up losing to the Colts.

This time around, the Packers are a little more motivated, but also a little more beat-up. The big win over Houston last week cost Green Bay ILB D.J. Smith for the season. Smith was filling in for ILB Desmond Bishop, also lost for the season. LB Nick Perry and CB Sam Shields also suffered injuries against Houston, and their status this week is uncertain.

Add those injuries to a list that already includes WR Greg Jennings and DT B.J. Raji, who are both questionable this week. Even QB Aaron Rodgers finds himself on the injury report this week with a calf injury, but is a near-certianty to play. The injuries and the inconsistency are just another parallel one can draw between this team and the 2010 squad.

As beat up as this Packers team is, they should be able to pull off a win against St. Louis. The Rams will make things tough with their stingy defense, but they don't have enough firepower on offense to outscore the Packers for 60 minutes.

I expect Green Bay to start off slow and minimize this Rams pass rush by opting for the short passes early. RB Alex Green had some nice moments last week, so the team may feed him the ball a little more this week to keep St. Louis on its toes.

We've seen Green Bay botch a layup before, so there's cause for concern here. However, I think the Packers can manage to still sneak past a subpar Rams team.

Score: Packers 24, Rams 13

Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers

The Pick: Dallas

You hate to call a game "must-win" in Week 7, but I think this is a must-win for the Cowboys. The Cowboys find themselves dead-last in the NFC East and losers of two straight. In those two losses, we've seen everything from Tony Romo's penchant for bad interceptions to Jason Garrett's horrid clock management.

This week, they draw a refreshed yet still terrible Panthers team coming off their bye. Teams playing after a week off have done well more often than not this season, so the Cowboys could be in for a game here. QB Cam Newton has taken a step back this season, but he's still a force with his arm and his legs.

Dallas has desperation on its side, however. Another bad loss and/or poor performance for Romo could spell the end for their once-popular franchise QB as well as their former wunderkind head coach. Kyle Orton played well after Romo was benched against Chicago, and while he's certainly not the long-term answer, the team may feel the need to change it up if Romo continues to give games away.

The Cowboys have the No. 1 pass defense in the league right now, and the Panthers don't run the ball with the same success as they use to. This could be a game where the defense takes charge and Romo gets the win by default. With no DeMarco Murray this week, Romo will need RB Felix Jones to take pressure off of him.

I think Dallas shuts down Newton and the Panthers offense. Romo will find a way to throw a couple picks, but the Cowboys leave Carolina with the win.

Score: Cowboys 27, Panthers 10

Washington Redskins (+5.5) at New York Giants

The Pick: Washington

As a whole, my picks have been quite atrocious, as evidenced by my season record. However, I've done a decent job of spotting upsets so far this season. This is my upset pick for the week.

The Giants are one of the rare teams that play better on the road than they do at home. They lost their home opener against Dallas and needed to come back from huge deficits against Tampa Bay and Cleveland to steal wins. Meanwhile, the Redskins swept the Giants last year with a team not nearly as good as this one.

New York is 21st against the pass despite one of the best pass rushes in the game. It is also 16th against the run. That spells danger against a QB who can make plays with his arm and feet like Robert Griffin III. The Redskins are pretty bad against the pass in their own right, so I think we'll see a shootout here.

This one will come down to who has the ball on the game's final drive. Usually, late-game situations tend to favor Eli Manning and the Giants, but my gut tells me Big Blue disappoints here after putting a beating on San Francisco last week.

Both QB's will have good games, and I think both running games do well, too. However, this just seems like one of those games that the Redskins steal due to a big play down the stretch and some blown coverage by New York.

At the very least, Washington keeps it close. I like it for the straight up win though.

Score: Redskins 30, Giants 24

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Pick: Tampa Bay

If this game took place last week, I would be more inclined to pick New Orleans. However, San Diego choking away a 24-point lead to Denver last week convinced me that the Chargers are just a terrible team that can't put away an opponent. Thus, any stock I put in New Orleans' win over San Diego has now been rendered moot.

While they no longer have a goose egg in the win column, the Saints are still a bad team. The defense can't stop anybody, and while the offense has been more in sync as of late, they aren't the team they once were. Tampa Bay isn't exactly a world-beater either, but it's become a different team under Greg Schiano.

Schiano's trademark, dating back to his Rutgers days, is winning with toughness, strong defense and a commitment to the running game. That latter point will come in handy against one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Bucs are going to unleash a healthy dose of RB's Doug Martin and LeGarrette Blount this week.

The increased chemistry between QB Josh Freeman and WR's Mike Williams and Vincent Jackson will also be on display against the Saints. If this one turns into a shootout, I don't like Tampa Bay's chances. I think Schiano tries to control the clock with the running game and the Bucs get just enough stops to pull off the win.

Score: Bucs 23, Saints 17

New York Jets (+10) at New England Patriots

The Pick: New England

I can't figure this Jets team out. Every time I get ready to count them out, they win. After a preseason of smoke and mirrors on offense, I thought they'd lose to Buffalo in the opener. They blew the Bills out instead. Last week, I thought Indianapolis would mop the floor with the Jets. It was the other way around.

Lucky for me, the Patriots are a little bit better than the Colts and Bills, so picking the Patriots to throttle the Jets shouldn't come back to burn me. At least I hope it doesn't. New England's commitment to the running game has given the Patriots offense some balance. In turn, it makes an already devastating offense even more dangerous.

With the Jets struggling against the run and no Darrelle Revis to help stop the pass, this has all the makings of a New England blowout. The Patriots always make it a point to embarrass their division rivals whenever they can, dating back to beginning of the SpyGate scandal. With the Jets helpless, expect Tom Brady and company to run up the score to prove a point.

Brady's weapons are a little beat up. WR Brandon Lloyd is battling a shoulder issue. TE Aaron Hernandez is steadily coming back from his ankle injury, and fellow TE Rob Gronkowski has been having trouble with his hip. Even WR Wes Welker is being limited in practice due to a bum ankle.

In typical Patriots fashion, all four men are listed as questionable, and their status won't be completely revealed until close to kickoff. I expect that all four will play, though. With the entire division locked at 3-3, this game has added importance. The Patriots are going to come out firing early and force a toothless Jets offense to try and keep up.

Despite the occasional flashes of competence by Gang Green on offense, I don't see that happening. Patriots will roll here and cover the double digit spread.

Score: Patriots 35, Jets 16

Jacksonville Jaguars (+4) at Oakland Raiders

The Pick: Oakland

The Week 7 slate is filled with some exciting games and interesting matchups. This Jaguars-Raiders clash is not one of them.

On paper, this looks like it could be a nice showdown between two of the game's best running backs in Maurice Jones-Drew and Darren McFadden. That's really the only thing this game has going for it. Beyond MoJo D, the Jaguars offense is as exciting as watching paint dry.

As for the Raiders, QB Carson Palmer has shown signs of his old form, but Oakland isn't nearly as thrilling as you'd expect a team with this much speed to be. Unless a receiver emerges on either team, this is going to be a ground-and-pound game where the team that makes the least amount of mistakes wins.

Normally, that means the turnover-prone Palmer is at a disadvantage. Luckily, his opposing QB is Blaine Gabbert. The Raiders should (keyword being "should") have no troubles with Jacksonville here. Oakland will unleash a healthy serving of Run-DMC, and he will be leaving his adidas firmly entrenched on the Jaguars' chest.

The Raiders roll here in a game you couldn't pay me to watch from start to finish.

Score: Raiders 27, Jaguars 10

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) at Cincinnati Bengals

The Pick: Pittsburgh

This game intrigues me in that I believe both teams are about even. The Steelers are a shell of the team they once were, but they still have enough talent to stay in the mix come playoff time. The Bengals have talent on both sides of the ball, but haven't put it all together yet.

Neither team runs the ball particularly well. Bengals RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been subpar, at best, in his first season in Cincy. Steelers RB Rashard Mendenhall recovered from a torn ACL only to injure his Achilles. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses, and with Baltimore's grip on the AFC North potentially slipping, this game has added importance.

For the 2-3 Steelers, a loss here would be tough to bounce back from. Pittsburgh is already three games back of the Ravens and still have to face Baltimore twice. The Bengals are only two games back, but lost one they shouldn't have in last week's loss to Cleveland.

With both teams expected to struggle running the ball, this one should be an aerial show. Steelers S Troy Polamalu isn't expected to play, so that's a huge break for Bengals QB Andy Dalton. Dalton has shown a tendency to throw bad picks as of late.

The Steelers have too much skill at receiver. WR Mike Wallace is playing for a new contract, while fellow wideout Antonio Brown is playing to justify his. The key for Pittsburgh will be keeping QB Ben Roethlisberger upright.

Division games are always close, and I think this game will gives us a better understanding of both these teams. I have a hard time seeing Pittsburgh losing this one with 10 days to prepare, though.

Score: Steelers 27, Bengals 24

Detroit Lions (+7) at Chicago Bears

The Pick: Chicago

It's always tough to bet on Bears QB Jay Cutler under the bright lights because he has the tendency to disappoint when he plays on national television. Cutler was fortunate the last time we saw him on Monday Night Football that Cowboys QB Tony Romo took the goat horns away from him.

As weary as this pick makes me, the numbers are on my side. The Bears have won seven of their last eight against Detroit, and the Lions have looked awful all season. The Eagles defense bailed Detroit out from another bad performance when it let a 14-point lead slip through their clutches. The Bears won't be that careless this week.

Chicago has quietly made its case as one of the NFC's elite. At 4-1, it's made up for its woes on offense with some solid defense. The Bears get after the quarterback and have become downright stingy against the run. The latter point may not affect Detroit this week, but the former sure will.

Lions QB Matt Stafford has had a rough year so far. He isn't completing passes with the same consistency as last year, and he, at times, looks as if he only locks on to WR Calvin Johnson. The result is Detroit's offense looks predictable, and the Lions should consider themselves lucky to be 2-3.

With Green Bay creeping on their heels in the NFC North, it's extra important that they put away division rival Detroit here. The Bears will exploit a soft Lions run defense by giving RB Matt Forte some work early. Of course, it wouldn't be a Bears game without a Jay Cutler interception, so expect at least one of those as well.

In the end, Chicago's defense will take charge and Cutler will settle down enough to put points on the board. With constant pressure in his face, Stafford will struggle to keep up with Cutler and company. The Bears pull off another impressive win here.

Score: Bears 28, Lions 19