Updated 2012 Team Win-Loss Record Predictions After NFL Week 3

Who would have thought that Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers would be a combined 3-9 through three games in the 2012 season?

Are we in the midst of a continental shift in the NFL, or are we merely experiencing an early-season blip?

Three weeks have yielded plenty of controversy and surprise. The adage, "On any given Sunday," may hold truer than ever before—just ask the 49ers. No team is safe. 

Who are the real contenders or pretenders? Let's find out.

Arizona Cardinals

Current Record: 3-0

The NFC West is 8-4 on the season. Congratulations if you saw that one coming.

Arizona's impressive and outlandish start might be surprising, but you could have seen it coming. The Cardinals are now 10-2 over their last 12 games dating back to last season, and the big reason has been a stingy defense led by Calais Campbell.

Consider this: The Cardinals have beaten Seattle—which, controversy or not, is 2-1 on the season having just beaten Green Bay—New England on the road and Philadelphia at home. None of those teams have looked like world beaters thus far, but the Cardinals are at least one-third of the reason for that.

They still have the Falcons, Packers and Lions on the schedule, not to mention the rest of the suddenly powerful NFC West. That defense has been fantastic, but the offense could be a liability against some of those great defenses.

Predicted Finish: 10-6

Atlanta Falcons

Current Record: 3-0

This is a bit less surprising considering the expectations heaped upon the Falcons prior to the season.

Now that they have laid the smack down upon the AFC West, the Falcons turn their attention to their own weak division. It appears that Roger Goodell did indeed take away the 'S' in "Saints" for this season, the Panthers look like the same old Panthers, and the Buccaneers are going through growing pains that come with a coaching transition.

It won't all be cake and ice cream for the Falcons, though. They also face the reigning world champions—who knocked them out of the playoffs en route to the Super Bowl—the suddenly tough Cardinals and the Lions this season.

As long as Matty Ice is sizzling, it is going to be a nice season for Atlanta.

Predicted Finish: 12-4

Baltimore Ravens

Current Record: 2-1

The Ravens are a defensive stop away from being 3-0 and an inch away from being 1-2.

No matter. They got the proverbial New England monkey off their back last week in spite of—or thanks to, depending on who you ask—dubious officiating.

Joe Flacco is playing with confidence, and the offense is clicking. The defense is playing ferociously, though they have given up 24 and 30 points in the past two games.

Predicted Finish: 11-5

Buffalo Bills

Current Record: 2-1

The Bills have bounced back nicely after an opening-week debacle against the Jets. But is it a mirage?

They faced a toothless Chiefs defense—they were particularly bad during the first two weeks—and the hapless Browns to get to 2-1. The Patriots, 49ers and Cardinals loom—a good way to come crashing back to Earth.

Buffalo has curried favor with the scheduling gods as they play three straight home games in December, though one of those tilts will be a domed affair in Toronto.

Predicted Finish: 7-9

Carolina Panthers

Current Record: 1-2

Last week's loss was a foreboding one for the Panthers, who cannot afford to have Cam Newton crumble under the weight of self-expectation.

Newton denies he was seeing a "mind coach," but the second-year quarterback's demeanor was exceedingly sullen after the Giants pantsed him on national television.

It does not get much easier for the Panthers in the NFC South. The win against the Saints rings hollow considering New Orleans is on its way to being 0-4.

Predicted Finish: 5-11

Chicago Bears

Current Record: 2-1

One week the Bears are on top of the world after thrashing an opponent; the next, their fans are questioning Jay Cutler's leadership.

Chicago is back off the ledge this week, though it could not get the offense past second gear against the Rams at home.

The offensive line remains a major issue for the Bears, and that could ultimately doom them. The Bears are tied for the NFC North lead right now as the Packers and Lions are struggling, but that will not last long if they cannot fully right the ship.

Predicted Finish: 9-7

Cincinnati Bengals

Current Record: 2-1

The Ravens throttled the Bengals on opening week—much like they did the Steelers a year ago—but the Bengals have responded nicely. Playing the Browns and the depleted Redskins was good medicine.

The crystal ball is particularly clouded for the Bengals, who ended last season on a 3-6 run. Their schedule remains soft as they get the Jaguars, Dolphins and Browns next, and it seems they have wound up with a favorable schedule overall outside the vaunted AFC North.

Cincinnati could wind up 5-1 after six weeks before they hit the Steelers and their schedule toughens up.

Predicted Finish: 10-6

Cleveland Browns

Current Record: 0-3

Joe Haden's suspension has put a pall on a defensive unit that nearly beat Philadelphia on its own in Week 1. 

The Browns have not been able to stop anybody since then, despite knocking C.J. Spiller out of the game last week against the Bills. Brandon Weeden is having a typical roller coaster season for a rookie quarterback.

With the Ravens, Giants and Bengals queued up for them, their next real chance at a win might come on the road at Indianapolis. Of course, anything can happen, but the Browns look like they are headed for another top-five draft this season.

At least they won't feel compelled to draft a running back with that pick.

Predicted Finish: 3-13

Dallas Cowboys

Current Record: 2-1

This has been a quintessential Cowboys season.

They began by beating the division rival and Super Bowl champion New York Giants on the road convincingly, then they followed it up with a terrible loss to Seattle on the road. Their Week 3 performance against the Bucs left something to be desired as well.

That defense has improved quite a bit since last year, though, which should help them avoid some of those pitfalls they have faced in recent years.

Predicted Finish: 9-7

Denver Broncos

Current Record: 1-2

There is a restaurant near where my in-laws live named Noodle Theory. Contrary to popular belief, it is not named after Peyton Manning's arm.

Arm strength be damned, Peyton Manning has carried his team from behind two games in a row. The Broncos fell short both times, but they were playing the two best teams in the league at this juncture. (Apologies to Arizona, which is also 3-0, but Atlanta and Houston look special after three weeks.)

The AFC West has not turned out to be the gauntlet we envisioned—it looks to be more like wading through a bunch of pool noodles in the kiddie pool right now.

Despite the losses, the Broncos look like they can take the division.

Predicted Finish: 10-6

Detroit Lions

Current Record: 1-2

The near-loss to the Rams was a wake-up call. The loss to the 49ers on the road was predictable. But the overtime loss to the defenseless Titans on the road? That could prove to be the difference in a hotly contested NFC North.

Detroit finds itself in a must-win situation at home against the division-leading Vikings early in the season. The Lions have five more divisional games after that, and you figure they will make or break the season.

The Lions looked like they could become a perennial contender after their playoff appearance last season, but Matthew Stafford is suffering from whatever malady has befallen the NFC North quarterbacks—except Christian Ponder, of course, who might just be stealing their mojo, Dr. Evil style.

The offense needs to get going, and the defense need not give up 44 points again this year if they are going to get some traction.

Predicted Finish: 9-7

Green Bay Packers

Current Record: 1-2

Speaking of stolen mojo, the Packers have looked out of sorts to start the 2012 campaign.

In a cruel twist, it is Aaron Rodgers and the offense that has failed the team, not a well-performing defense that was ranked last in the league just a year ago. The offense has scored just four touchdowns in three games this season.

Granted, starting your year out against the 49ers, Bears and Seahawks—whose defense has vaulted into the elite conversation, particularly when they play with the 12th Man behind them—your offense might struggle to find its rhythm.

Hopefully the Saints and their awful defense are playing some rhythmic music for Rodgers and his band of merry cheeseheads this week; otherwise, alarms will start popping off.

Predicted Finish: 11-5

Houston Texans

Current Record: 3-0

The Texans have looked fantastic thus far, pummeling the Dolphins, Jaguars and Broncos through three games, though Denver did close the gap to six points at the end of the game.

A stalwart defense led by the early front-runner for the Defensive Player of the Year award (J.J. Watt) is a big reason why, but this is a rather balanced team. If Matt Schaub had stayed healthy last season, who knows how the AFC playoffs would have shaken out?

Their toughest tests come against the Ravens, Packers, Patriots and Lions. At this point, the Texans look superior to them all.

They just need to stay healthy.

Predicted Finish: 12-4

Indianapolis Colts

Current Record: 1-2

Lady Luck was not with the Colts last week as they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

Andrew Luck—no known relation to Lady—has performed well the past two weeks after getting a rude introduction to the NFL at the hands of the Chicago Bears.

The offense is doing well, but unfortunately, that defense is in for a long year. They get an extra week to rest up and prepare for the coming onslaught from the Green Bay Packers.

Fortunately, their schedule is relatively soft. Aside from having to face the Packers, Patriots, Lions and Texans twice, they will have games against the Dolphins, Bills, Browns and Jaguars again, among others.

That is no slight against those teams, but they are not exactly the juggernauts of the league right now.

Predicted Finish: 4-12

Jacksonville Jaguars

Current Record: 1-2

Jacksonville should be 0-3 right now, though Cecil Shorts's 80-yard touchdown on blown coverage by the Colts may have been fate's way of repaying a last-minute loss to the Vikings on the road.

Blaine Gabbert looked like a new man in the preseason, but he has largely looked like his old self through the regular season's first three games. The defense has also not been quite as good as it was in 2011, which is a problem when the offense struggles to score points.

Predicted Finish: 4-12

Kansas City Chiefs

Current Record: 1-2

The Chiefs felt the absence of Tamba Hali and Brandon Flowers in Week 1, and they seemingly paid homage to their awful Week 1 performance with an encore against the Bills in Week 2.

They were well on their way to another loss against the Saints last week before the Saints stalled and Ryan Succop teamed up with Jamaal Charles and saved the day.

Is this the start of a positive trend for a young, talented team that was supposed to compete for the AFC West title? If they can stay healthy, it very well could be. 

They need Arrowhead to be rocking at home to have a shot.

Predicted Finish: 7-9

Miami Dolphins

Current Record: 1-2

Dan Carpenter lined up for the game-winning field goal in overtime. Then his hair got in the way.

The normally solid kicker had a game to forget as the Dolphins lost to their bitter rival, the New York Jets, after two costly missed field goals. That would have put Miami at 2-1, defying the odds and the pundits. Instead, it's in the AFC East cellar. 

That the Patriots have joined the Dolphins briefly is no solace, and they travel to 3-0 Arizona this week to face that stout defense on the road. Perhaps they will catch the Cardinals during an overconfident week, much like what seems to have happened to the 49ers against the Vikings last week.

Miami's schedule lightens up a bit, for the most part. If the Dolphins can continue to play solid defense and run the ball, they will grind out some victories. That hinges on health all around on defense and Reggie Bush staying on the field.

Oh, and rookie head coach Joe Philbin might want to minimize boneheaded timeouts.

Predicted Finish: 6-10

Minnesota Vikings

Current Record: 2-1

Were it not for the Cardinals, the Vikings' 2-1 record after three weeks might be the most surprising in the NFL.

They did beat the reigning NFC West champs (49ers) just as they seemed to be staking claim to the No. 1 ranking in the NFC, but they also played the Jaguars and Colts to start the season.

The Vikings must still run the NFC North gauntlet, through which they could wind up 2-4 or 1-5 record in the end. Outside of that, they play the Texans and Seahawks on the road, and they get the Cardinals at home.

Predicted Finish: 7-9

New England Patriots

Current Record: 1-2

The Patriots pushed the Titans around in Week 1, but they have had a rough go in subsequent weeks. The Cardinals came to town and surprised them, then they lost a nail-biter to the Ravens in a dramatic reversal of the AFC Championship Game result.

This is the first time the Patriots have been under .500 after Week 1 since 2003.

Upon investigation, this team is still run by Bill Belichick and quarterbacked by Tom Brady, and it plays in a lightweight AFC East. They are also fortunate in that their toughest interdivisional matchups remaining—the 49ers and Texans—come at home.

Predicted Finish: 11-5

New Orleans Saints

Current Record: 0-3

It seems the bounty scandal has put a voodoo hex on the Saints after all.

They certainly seem to be missing Sean Payton, not to mention Joe Vitt, who is currently exiled with a four-game suspension himself. The defense has been awful, and Drew Brees has not been his MVP-caliber self—his raw numbers belie his regression.

The offense can still be potent, though, and the defense cannot possibly be bad all season. 

Right?

Predicted Finish: 8-8

New York Giants

Current Record: 2-1

Things could not be looking brighter right now for the Giants, considering the start they got to the 2012 season.

Perhaps they were admiring their Super Bowl rings when the Cowboys came to town and punched them in the mouth, knocking them into a dizzy shootout with the Buccaneers at home. It seems like Greg Schiano's insolence woke the sleeping Giants.

New York came to Carolina and defrocked Cam Newton, looking every bit like the best team in the NFC East in the process.

The Giants will have a chance to prove it on the road at Philadelphia this week against a reeling Eagles team.

Predicted Finish: 10-6

New York Jets

Current Record: 2-1

The Jets are a missed field goal away from being 1-2 after throttling the Bills in Week 1. They have now lost their best player on their best unit—Darrelle Revis on the defense—to a season-ending injury.

Throwing passes off Tim Tebow's head are the least of New York's worries right now. Shonn Greene has been so bad for so long that Rex Ryan is finally thinking about considering the possibility of maybe using one of their better backs instead of Greene (via Manish Mehta of the NY Daily News):

"

With the Shonn Greene averaging just 2.8 yards per carry through the team’s first three games, Rex Ryan said Monday some early touches were “possible” for Bilal Powell or Joe McKnight.

“That’s certainly a possibility that we’ll look into,” said Ryan. “We’ll look at anything that will help our team. Has that been discussed? No.”

"

That sounds rather noncommittal, but it would be a step in the right direction for a struggling offense. 

Things do not get easier this week as they travel to face a 49ers team that is sure to be angry about their unexpected road loss to the Vikings, then to a Texans team that looks like the best in the conference.

Predicted Finish: 7-9

Oakland Raiders

Current Record: 1-2

"

The Autumn wind is a pirate
Blustering in from sea
With a rollicking song he sweeps along
Swaggering boisterously.
His face is weatherbeaten
He wears a hooded sash
With a silver hat about his head
And a bristling black mustache
He growls as he storms the country
A villain big and bold
And the trees all shake and quiver and quake
As he robs them of their gold.
The Autumn wind is a Raider
Pillaging just for fun
He'll knock you 'round and upside down
And laugh when he's conquered and won.

"

Bluster and swagger are sad, dim echoes in the halls of the Coliseum. They may have tapped into them a bit as they came back to beat the Pittsburgh Steelers at home last week, but the Raiders have a long way to go.

Rest in peace, Mr. Sabol.

Predicted Finish: 5-11

Philadelphia Eagles

Current Record: 2-1

The Eagles could easily be 0-3 right now. Michael Vick led them to two come-from-behind victories to start the season—one against a good Baltimore team—but they looked completely outclassed on the road at Arizona.

Vick in particular looks like he has regressed even further into a funk. Could it be permanent? Even Andy Reid sounded noncommittal when speaking of his quarterback (via Jeff McClane of the Philadelphia Inquirer): 

"

Right now, we're with Michael and that's what we're doing," Reid said Monday after the Eagles' 27-6 loss at Arizona. "We'll evaluate it as we go."

It was the faintest endorsement Reid has given his starting quarterback as questions about Vick's job security mount with each subpar outing. The Eagles are 2-1, but Vick has handed in two dreadful performances and another that was not without its mistakes.

"

The Eagles are on tenuous ground here. The defense has done a decent job, but the offense has been a turnover-laden disaster for the most part.

Can they fly, or have their wings been clipped again?

Predicted Finish: 9-7

Pittsburgh Steelers

Current Record: 1-2

The Steelers gave one away against the Raiders last week after taking a 10-point lead into the fourth quarter.

This is a team that has been rocked by injuries on both sides of the ball. Troy Polamalu and James Harrison should be back soon to help out the unusually porous defense, but can the team overcome injuries elsewhere?

The AFC North is not going to give them a free pass, that much is certain.

Predicted Finish: 8-8

San Diego Chargers

Current Record: 2-1

The Chargers actually got off to a good start to the 2012 season—a welcome sight for weary fans used to slow starts from the San Diego Norv Turners.

Unfortunately, they may as well have forfeited against the Falcons at home last week, laying a 26-3 egg against one of the league's best teams.

San Diego is leading the AFC West right now, but you know Norv Turner is going to find a way to wind up with an average record.

Predicted Finish: 9-7

San Francisco 49ers

Current Record: 2-1

The 49ers steamrolled the Vikings en route to a 3-0 start, emphatically proclaiming they are the best team in the NFC.

Well, that is how they scripted it. Unfortunately for them, Christian Ponder and the Vikings decided to ad lib.

The 49ers still boast an elite defense and an efficient—if not explosive—offense. They probably looked admiringly into the mirror a few too many times last week, though. 

'Tis better to have an early-season wake-up call than one that comes in the playoffs.

Predicted Finish: 11-5

Seattle Seahawks

Current Record: 2-1

Lost in all the outrage and hullabaloo the Monday Night Debacle has caused is the fact the Seahawks are 2-1 after beating two good teams in the Cowboys and Packers.

Brouhaha or not, the victory against Green Bay is final. The Seahawks did an excellent job of putting themselves in position to win that game with a marvelous defensive performance against Aaron Rodgers, sacking the reigning MVP eight times in one half.

Their loss came on the road against the surprising Cardinals, but Seattle's defense has risen to the ranks of the elite alongside that of its division rivals.

NFC West combatants could beat each other up to the point of hurting playoff odds all around, but the Seahawks have the 12th Man on their side six more times.

Predicted Finish: 10-6

St. Louis Rams

Current Record: 1-2

The Rams nearly beat the Lions, then they put on an offensive show against the porous Redskins defense.

Unfortunately, the rest of the NFC West seems to be on a higher plane of existence this season, and the Rams have plenty to overcome offensively. Most of their favorable matchups happen on the road, which mitigates the favorableness of the matchups.

Predicted Finish: 5-11

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Current Record: 1-2

One week the Bucs lose in a shootout, the next they cannot score points.

This is a team trying to find its way with a controversial rookie head coach. They are capable of hanging with the big boys, it seems, but they have not broken through yet.

The NFC South is in a down year, but that guarantees nothing for a middling team.

Predicted Finish: 6-10

Tennessee Titans

Current Record: 1-2

The Titans just got done beating a powerful Lions team in a 44-41 overtime thriller that included a throwback to the Music City Miracle.

Now for the bad news: They are allowing nearly 38 points per game on defense. Granted, they have played the Patriots, Lions and Dante Rosarios, but that is a foreboding statistic.

Tennessee's schedule is relatively soft by virtue of playing in the AFC South, but there aren't many easy wins on the schedule even if the Titans go 4-2 within the division.

Predicted Finish: 6-10

Washington Redskins

Current Record: 1-2

The RGIII era started with a bang, but the Redskins have given a whimper over the past two games.

Unfortunately for Washington, the defense has taken a big step back from their improvement of a year ago. Part of that is due to injuries—season-ending maladies to Brian Orakpo and Adam Carriker were huge blows to an already sieve-like defense—but Jim Haslett has not been able to muster the defensive performance from this unit that he got a year ago.

To top it off, Griffin has slowed since his incredible debut. He has had great statistical outputs in all three games, but the Redskins were in a huge hole against the Bengals in part because they could not do much on offense in the first half.

If teams are starting to figure Griffin out, it could be lights out early for the Redskins.

Predicted Finish: 5-11