2012 College Football Week 5 Picks: West Virginia over Baylor

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Game of the Week: Baylor at West Virginia

The Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe have been the thorn in the side of some of the top collegiate football programs over the last few weeks. First, they took then eighth-ranked Arkansas to overtime and won 34-31. Then, they traveled to Auburn and forced overtime with the Tigers, but fell by three. Finally, last week, the Warhawks took Baylor down to the wire before losing 47-42. The Bears may have lost Robert Griffin III to the NFL, but their high-powered offense continued to thrive during the non-conference portion of their 2012 schedule.

That changes this Saturday at high noon.

Baylor travels to Morgantown to meet the new kid in the Big 12 Conference, West Virginia. The Bears enter the game fifth in the nation in scoring (51.3 points per game) and passing offense (361.7). He may not be as mobile as RG3, but Nick Florence is making a name for himself with more than 1,000 passing yards and 11 touchdowns already this season. He's chipped in 159 yards on the ground, too.

The Bears' problem, once again, is on the other side of the football where they rank 116th in total defense and 90th in scoring defense. Ouch.

They'll need to try and rectify that against Geno Smith and the Mountaineers, who are 10th in scoring offense at better than 47 points per game. Smith is one of the early favorites to take home the Heisman Trophy. The quarterback has thrown for 1,072 yards and 12 touchdowns without throwing a pick. Smith is completing better than 81 percent of his passes, which is insane and leads the nation.

We simulated the Bears and the Mountaineers 101 times and it's West Virginia coming away with the win more than 65 percent of the time by an average score of 30-25. Remember, that's just an average score – chances are these two teams run the score into the mid-to-high 40s.

College Football Week 5
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	5.0	17	Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	95.0	34
Idaho Vandals	12.9	16	Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	87.1	32
North Carolina State Wolfpack	44.1	23	Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes	55.9	25
Duke Blue Devils	44.1	25	Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons	55.9	26
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	54.5	28	Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers	45.5	27
Clemson Tigers	83.2	31	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	16.8	19
Buffalo Bulls	27.2	15	Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies	72.8	23
Virginia Tech Hokies	62.9	24	Boxscore
vs. Cincinnati Bearcats	37.1	18
Florida State Seminoles	79.2	29	Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls	20.8	19
Indiana Hoosiers	24.8	20	Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats	75.2	27
Marshall Thundering Herd	28.7	22	Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers	71.3	30
Minnesota Golden Gophers	32.7	20	Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	67.3	24
Wisconsin Badgers	39.1	23	Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	60.9	26
Penn State Nittany Lions	49.0	19	Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	51.0	20
Ohio State Buckeyes	51.5	22	Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans	48.5	21
Rhode Island Rams	5.0	6	Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons	95.0	40
Central Michigan Chippewas	38.6	22	Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies	61.4	25
Toledo Rockets	44.1	27	Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos	55.9	29
Ball State Cardinals	61.9	22	Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	38.1	19
Miami (OH) RedHawks	72.3	26	Boxscore
@ Akron Zips	27.7	19
Ohio Bobcats	95.0	33	Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen	5.0	10
Arizona State Sun Devils	47.5	25	Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears	52.5	26
Oregon State Beavers	51.5	29	Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats	48.5	28
UCLA Bruins	65.3	25	Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes	34.7	20
Stanford Cardinal	64.9	28	Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies	35.1	24
Oregon Ducks	74.3	32	Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars	25.7	21
Towson Tigers	5.0	6	Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers	95.0	52
Mississippi Rebels	6.9	13	Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide	93.1	30
Arkansas Razorbacks	27.7	21	Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies	72.3	28
Tennessee Volunteers	29.2	21	Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs	70.8	27
South Carolina Gamecocks	88.1	25	Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats	11.9	11
UNLV Rebels	15.8	19	Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies	84.2	30
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners	32.2	23	Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies	67.8	29
Nevada Wolf Pack	91.1	32	Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats	8.9	15
Stony Brook Seawolves	5.0	9	Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights	95.0	41
Hawaii Warriors	30.7	19	Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars	69.3	25
San Jose State Spartans	54.5	26	Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen	45.5	25
Baylor Bears	34.7	25	Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers	65.3	30
Texas Tech Red Raiders	41.1	26	Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones	58.9	28
Texas Longhorns	57.4	25	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys	42.6	23
UTEP Miners	46.5	24	Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates	53.5	25
Missouri Tigers	60.4	26	Boxscore
@ UCF Knights	39.6	22
Houston Cougars	60.4	30	Boxscore
vs. Rice Owls	39.6	26
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	69.3	28	Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave	30.7	21
TCU Horned Frogs	75.2	30	Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs	24.8	21
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	79.2	31	Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers	20.8	20
Louisville Cardinals	83.2	28	Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	16.8	16
Colorado State Rams	25.7	18	Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons	74.3	25
San Diego State Aztecs	36.1	22	Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs	63.9	28
Boise State Broncos	95.0	35	Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos	5.0	15
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	38.6	24	Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves	61.4	27
FIU Golden Panthers	47.5	26	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	52.5	27
North Texas Mean Green	67.3	25	Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	32.7	19
Troy Trojans	75.2	28	Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars	24.8	19