Week 2 Waiver Wire: Determining Whether Week 1 Surprises Will Be Hype or Hero

On the waiver wire, subtraction by addition often plagues fantasy football owners.

After a surprise player has a huge week, there's a rush to add, add, add like he's the hottest stock on the market. Occasionally, you'll end up with a Peyton Hillis or Michael Vick from 2010 or a Victor Cruz from 2011.

Just as often, though, you end up with a bench-warmer and a spot at the bottom of the waiver wire moving forward.

Not surprisingly, there were a few big performances from unlikely sources on Sunday. But will those players be fantasy heroes this year or just a bit of one-week hype who will be added in droves and regretted by all those who do?

Let's break down five Week 1 studs who are available in most leagues and determine whether you should bother with them or stay away.

Alfred Morris, RB, Washington Redskins

We probably need to attach a waiver to Morris. Here goes:

In no way, shape or form is it ever safe to assume that a running back in a Mike Shanahan offense will be a safe fantasy starter for your team each and every week. Timothy Rapp will not be held accountable for your failure to temper expectations for Morris with Evan Royster and Roy Helu available to Shanahan. If you are not realistic about his fantasy prospects moving forward, you will probably be sorry.

That said, if you are going to select a running back from the Redskins to roll with, it looks like Morris is the guy you'll want to add this week. He was given a whopping 28 carries by Shanahan's standards, rushing for 96 yards, two touchdowns and 21.6 fantasy points.

He certainly took advantage of the opportunity he was given, though naysayers will probably point to his 3.4 yards per carry. Still, for now, Morris seems worthy of a pickup and possible flex spot with the St. Louis Rams next on the schedule.

Verdict: HERO (for now)

Kevin Ogletree, WR, Dallas Cowboys

On Wednesday night, Twitter probably should have been renamed Ogletree, he was trending so hard.

The Dallas wide receiver worked the New York Giants over to the tune of eight receptions for 114 yards and two touchdowns. In standard-scoring leagues, those numbers were good for 23.4 fantasy points. Plus, he was targeted 11 times by Tony Romo.

Yes, Miles Austin, Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are still the top receiving options for the Cowboys. But if Laurent Robinson could finish with 54 receptions for 858 yards and 11 touchdowns a year ago, there's no reason to think Ogletree can't have success this season.

If you are looking for this year's Victor Cruz, I think you are barking up the wrong Ogletree. But could he be the next Robinson?

Absolutely.

Verdict: HERO

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Can you believe that Gabbert is still available in 97.2 percent of ESPN fantasy football leagues?

Of course you can, seeing as he hasn't looked very good in his young career. Still, he was good for 18 points in standard-scoring leagues on Sunday and nearly led Jacksonville to a Week 1 win. 

But here's the thing: He did so against the Minnesota Vikings, hardly known for having a very good secondary. And even against Minny, he still only threw for 260 yards and two touchdowns. Not very inspiring stuff when you think about it.

Unless you are in a crazy deep league and have to start two quarterbacks—or you are related to Gabbert and feel inclined to have him on your team—please don't add him to your roster. You can do far better, trust me. 

Verdict: HYPE

Mark Sanchez, QB, New York Jets

Did you know that Sanchez was the 10th-best quarterback in standard-scoring leagues a year ago?

Hard to believe, but it's true. While Sanchez won't give you 20 points every week like he did against the Buffalo Bills, he should probably be owned in more than just 10.9 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues. 

Obviously, the expectations you place on him will determine whether he's a hero or just hype.

If you are looking for a QB2 to play during the bye weeks or for one or two really favorable matchups, he'll be a hero. If you are looking for a starter to consistently help you win each week, however, he's going to make you really, really angry. 

Sanchez was good for 17 or more fantasy points seven times last season. Use him correctly, and he'll be more of an asset than he gets credit for. 

Verdict: HERO (in the right role)

Stephen Hill, WR, New York Jets

Welcome to the NFL, Mr. Hill. I hope you enjoyed your breakout performance in Week 1. I'm pretty sure you'll be owned in more than just 3.9 percent of ESPN fantasy leagues after catching five passes for 89 yards and two touchdowns against the Bills.

But I can't help but think that your production won't be sustainable moving forward either.

For one, I can't bank on you to score two touchdowns each week. For another, while you were second in targets to Santonio Holmes with six, I don't think Dustin Keller will be targeted just once moving forward like he was against the Bills. Plus, Jeremy Kerley looks like he will have a solid role in this offense from the slot.

And to be honest, despite this big performance I still don't trust the Jets offense. Call me crazy, but one week won't erase my memory of, well, the entirety of the 2011 season.

I like Hill as a speculative pickup if you have solid starters already in place. He's worth a stash if you can afford to do so. But unlike Ogletree or Morris, he's not a guy that you should be considering as a potential flex play.

At least not yet.

Verdict: HYPE (for now)

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