NFL Picks Week 1: Predicting Every Winner by Confidence Level

The 2012 NFL season is officially underway, as the Dallas Cowboys downed the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants 24-17 in a somewhat sloppy affair Wednesday night.

Things really get rolling on Sunday, with a full slate of games, and here's a look at how the first week of the 2012 season should shake out, from the easy calls to the coin flips.

Of course, how they should play out and how they will play out are probably two entirely different things.

Indianapolis Colts at Chicago Bears

The Pick: Chicago

Confidence Level: Fairly High

Indianapolis Colts quarterback and first overall pick Andrew Luck will make his NFL debut Sunday when the rebuilding process for the Colts begins at Soldier Field against the Bears.

Luck looked very poised in the preseason, but the regular season is a different animal. And with the Bears being the superior team on both sides of the ball, Chicago should begin the year with a double-digit victory at home.

Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

The Pick: Philadelphia

Confidence Level: Mortal-Lock Certainty

Sunday's matchup between the Philadelphia Eagles and Cleveland Browns is another game featuring a rookie signal-caller making his NFL debut, as 28-year-old Brandon Weeden will get the call for the Browns.

Unfortunately for Weeden, that call comes against one of the National Football League's best pass rushes, and with defensive ends Jason Babin and Trent Cole in his face all day long, Weeden's first start in the NFL is set to be a rocky one.

St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions

The Pick: Detroit

Confidence Level: High

For what seems like the first time in ages, the Detroit Lions gave their fans something to cheer about in 2011, winning 10 games and advancing to the postseason for the first time since 1999.

The running game and secondary remain question marks for Detroit, but the Lions should be able to make fairly quick work of a St. Louis Rams club that surrendered the most sacks in the NFL a year ago.

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans

The Pick: Houston

Confidence Level: Sky High

You know there's going to be an upset or two Sunday, but I'll be darned if I'm seeing any to this point.

The Houston Texans are a trendy pick to advance to the Super Bowl this year after making their first playoff appearance in franchise history last year on the shoulders of a strong running game and a punishing defense.

Against the Miami Dolphins Sunday, that running game may be without starter Arian Foster, who was a late addition to this week's injury report after missing practice Friday.

However, backup Ben Tate is a capable ball-carrier in his own right, and even should Foster be sidelined, the Texans should have little problem handling a Miami team with one of the most anemic offenses in the NFL.

Atlanta Falcons at Kansas City Chiefs

The Pick: Atlanta

Confidence Level: Medium

This is the first game on the slate in which I see the potential for an upset special, as Arrowhead Stadium can be an imposing venue for visiting teams.

Just ask the Green Bay Packers, who lost their only game of the 2011 regular season in Kansas City.

However, the Falcons' new grip-it-and-rip-it offense has been firing on all cylinders in the exhibition season, and with top cornerback Brandon Flowers a big question mark in this contest, the Kansas City defense may be in over its head.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Minnesota Vikings

The Pick: Minnesota

Confidence Level: Low

This is a game that may well be hard to watch.

Sunday's tilt between the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings features two teams that combined for all of eight wins a year ago and a pair of second-year quarterbacks in Minnesota's Christian Ponder and Blaine Gabbert of the Jaguars.

What the game won't feature are two of the NFL's top running backs, as Adrian Peterson of the Vikings and Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew will likely see limited action due to Peterson's knee injury and Jones-Drew's holdout.

Expect a close game won by the team that makes the fewest mistakes, and I'll give the Vikings the edge in the friendly confines of the Metrodome.

Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints

The Pick: New Orleans

Confidence Level: Through the Superdome's Roof

Robert Griffin, welcome to the National Football League.

After a tumultuous offseason filled with scandals, suspensions (many of which were recently overturned) and even a hurricane, the New Orleans Saints will likely be team on a mission when they open the season Sunday at home.

Unfortunately for the Redskins, that mission will probably be to light Washington up like a Christmas tree.

Blowout of the week. Saints by at least 20.

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

The Pick: New York

Confidence Level: None

I hate this pick. Loathe it. Despise it.

With that said, I have to pick someone, and although the Jets offense was historically horrible in the preseason, you have to think that Gang Green has a trick or two up their sleeves for the season opener.

Look for a close game that comes down to wire before the Jets pull it out due to some late-game magic by...

Wait for it...

Wait for it...

TEEEEEEEBOWWWWWWWW!

New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

The Pick: New England

Confidence Level: High

The Tennessee Titans were something of a pleasant surprise in 2011, as the team very quietly won nine games and gave its fans reason for optimism heading into the 2012 campaign.

The only surprise that will emanate from Nashville on Sunday will be if the Titans can keep this game close, as Tennessee simply doesn't have the offensive firepower to hang with a New England squad that's absolutely loaded in the passing game.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

The Pick: Seattle

Confidence Level: Medium

Generally speaking, when a rookie quarterback is making his first National Football League start on the road, it's not advisable to pick that team to win.

Of course, most times those rookie quarterbacks don't get to start their careers against tasty frosted cupcakes.

Granted, the Arizona Cardinals have a decent defense, but their offensive line is atrocious, and watching their "battle" at quarterback was like watching a beauty pageant in which the only two contestants are Rosie O' Donnell and Roseanne Barr.

Take Russell Wilson and the Seahawks for the win, and turn the channel before the swimsuit competition. I beg you.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers

The Pick: Green Bay

Confidence Level: Medium

Sunday's marquee game features a classic matchup of offense vs. defense, as linebacker Patrick Willis and the stout San Francisco defense travels to face quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the high-flying Packers offense.

Were this game in San Francisco, it might be a different story, but the secondary is the weak spot of the 49ers defense. and in the friendly confines of Lambeau Field, Green Bay will start off the 2012 season with a hard-fought win.

Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Pick: Tampa Bay

Confidence Level: Low

This is probably one the week's hardest games to get a read on, as a Carolina team that was solid on offense and weak on defense travels to square off against a Buccaneers team that was one of the NFL's big disappointments in 2011.

New head coach Greg Schiano is attempting to instill a blue-collar mentality in Tampa Bay, and the combination of an improved defense and a solid game from rookie running back Doug Martin would be enough to get the Schiano era off to a good start for the Bucs.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos

The Pick: Pittsburgh

Confidence Level: Low

Sunday night's matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Denver Broncos is a rematch of last year's overtime playoff thriller won by Denver, although this year the Steelers won't have to worry about Tim Tebow.

All they have to worry about is Peyton Manning.

This game's a toss-up that will probably go right down to the end, but I just can't shake the feeling that the rust from Manning's long layoff and the bitter taste left in the Steelers' mouths by last year's loss will be enough to propel Pittsburgh to a close win.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens

The Pick: Cincinnati

Confidence Level: Low

The Baltimore Ravens advanced to within one game of the Super Bowl last year, propelled by their typically solid defense and the running of tailback Ray Rice, but the story for the Ravens in the preseason has been the new "sugar huddle" offense implemented by offensive coordinator Cam Cameron.

The team will open the season with heavy hearts, as former owner Art Modell, who brought the Ravens to Baltimore, passed away earlier this week.

The team will no doubt honor Modell during the game.

And that's why I'm picking the Bengals to win.

Yes, I'm still bitter. Sue me.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders

The Pick: Oakland

Confidence Level: Low

The last game of Week 1 is also one of the hardest of the week to predict, as there are just as many questions surrounding this game as there are answers.

Can Oakland quarterback Carson Palmer remember to throw to the guys in the silver hats?

Can a patchwork San Diego offensive line keep quarterback Philip Rivers upright?

How bad an idea is it to give Raiders fans all day to drink before the first game of the year?

I know the answer to at least one of those questions, and in front of a rowdy and well-lubricated crowd, the Raiders will start the year off with a win.