Week 1 NFL Picks: 5 Games You Must Avoid at All Costs

The NFL each week brings us some easy bets. Others can begin as head-scratchers and take a turn toward hair-pulling.

Well, that's what we're here to prevent. One team to steer clear of, for example, is the New York Jets.

Gang Green scored just one touchdown through four preseason games and lost each time. New York is obviously not the most explosive offense heading into the 2012 season, and no team can win without some sort of offensive production.

Therefore, to avoid the worst-case scenario of frustration from making the wrong bet, we look at Gang Green and the other games not worth pursuing this week.

Note: All Week 1 NFL lines are courtesy of FootballLocks.com

Redskins at Saints (-7)

This is an interesting matchup, but not one that provides much confidence on either side.

Sure, Drew Brees is at the helm for the New Orleans Saints and Robert Griffin III brings much excitement to the Washington Redskins.

However, the Saints were an extremely weak defense against the run and pass in 2011, and Brees also has some new targets to work with. The Redskins, on the other hand, don't have an established running game, and RG3 is a rookie who saw limited action during the preseason.

In other words, the outcome of this game is tougher to foresee.

Brees held out for a while, and although he had a sound preseason, Washington's defense is much better than given credit for. Presenting a strong pass rush and reliable linebackers, it won't be so easy for the Saints offense to move the chains.

Expect NOLA to run the ball more, though, to at least keep balanced and play-action relevant. Washington's new and improved offense, in turn, has the potential to match pace. And when push comes to shove, Redskins-Saints will be closer than a touchdown.

Saints 27, Redskins 24

Bills at Jets (-3)

The Buffalo Bills are eager to kick off the 2012 NFL season.

With a significantly upgraded defense, the Bills have legitimate playoff expectations this fall.

And to any Bills fans' liking, the New York Jets offense is the Buffalo defense's polar opposite. Tim Tebow played even worse this preseason than in 2011, and despite Mark Sanchez being the needed pocket-passer, Gang Green doesn't have the receiving corps to be explosive.

Buffalo's front seven will shut down the running game and create immense pressure to force turnovers. The duo of Mario Williams and Mark Anderson will control the outside, and Marcell Dareus then faces favorable one-on-one blocking situations on the interior.

In the secondary, any ill-advised throw will get picked off or at least defended by cornerbacks Aaron Williams and rookie Stephon Gilmore. Buffalo's offense, therefore, need not be explosive because slamming on the ground with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller will control the game tempo.

The Jets aren't consistent at stopping the run, and limiting Gang Green's offensive possessions only helps Buffalo's defense even more.

Bills 20, Jets 0

Jaguars at Vikings (-3.5)

The update here that everyone wants is regarding Adrian Peterson.

Well, at this point, not much has changed.

According to the Associated Press (via Sports Illustrated):

"

The star running back, recovering from a surgically repaired left knee, said Thursday he has "somewhat" of a gut feeling about whether the Vikings will let him suit up on Sunday for the game against Jacksonville.

Peterson didn't specify whether he's expecting to play and knows the decision is out of his hands.

"

Regardless of Peterson's status, the Jacksonville Jaguars have an elite defense capable of totally shutting the Minnesota Vikings offense down. They're well-coached against the run and pass and will apply more quarterback pressure this season.

As for Jacksonville's offense, Blaine Gabbert developed nicely this preseason, and Rashad Jennings is a decent dual-threat back. Include the Jags' upgraded receiving corps, and a balanced attack will capitalize on Minnesota's vulnerable defense.

The Vikings will be better against the pass, but much more work needs to be done. Jacksonville remains more balanced offensively and, courtesy of Mel Tucker's defense, is the better overall team and gets the win.

Jaguars 21, Vikings 14

49ers at Packers (-5)

No matter which team wins this game, it will be decided by fewer than five points.

The San Francisco 49ers will be more potent in the passing game this season, and the ground game remains a threat.

On the flip side, the Green Bay Packers made some needed additions to Dom Capers' defense and won't be the worst in pro football like 2011.

What we also get are each team's dominant strengths matching up: Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense lines up against Patrick Willis and the 49ers defense.

Could there be any more equal opposites? No. Green Bay has a better running game for 2012 and the 'Niners will be just as stellar as last season. So, it's safe to call this a wash.

When San Francisco has the rock, Green Bay's opportunistic defense will cause problems in the passing game. Also, rookies Nick Perry and Jerel Worthy are great run defenders who can also make plays in the backfield.

It's literally just too even of a contest across the board to be more than a five-point differential. The winner, however, enjoys more success on special teams, and the 'Niners have that edge, provided Ted Ginn Jr. is healthy—status uncertain, per Matt Maiocco of CNS Bay Area.

49ers 23, Packers 21

Bengals at Ravens (-6)

In a similar fashion to San Francisco-Green Bay, the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens are quite even as well.

Now yes, the Ravens did sweep Cincy in 2011 and won each game by one score.

That said, Cincy is looking to get a quick leg up on Balty and the rest of the AFC North. And we can't discount the Bengals, as the running game is impressive with BenJarvus Green-Ellis leading the way.

The man faced Baltimore in the 2011 AFC title game and possesses the ball-carrier vision to sift through the front line. Plus, defending the run became an issue for the Ravens toward the end of 2011.

With Terrell Suggs out and Cory Redding with the Indianapolis Colts, the Law Firm will help Cincy control the clock between the tackles. Play-action then becomes more evident, and receiver A.J. Green keeps Baltimore from stacking the box all night.

The Ravens offense will need a big day from Torrey Smith. Ray Rice is the key to slowing Baltimore, and Cincy must zero in on isolating his production. So, expect the Ravens to come out throwing and get tight end Ed Dickson involved early if he suits up (game-time decision, according to Jeff Zrebiec of the Baltimore Sun).

This will help set up the run and keep a balanced approach for reducing turnover opportunities. It's a low-scoring game, but Cincy fields the healthier defense to win on the road.

Bengals 16, Ravens 13

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