Fantasy Football 2012: Using Unorthodox Methods to Determine True Fantasy Value

Of the numerous stats and calculations that sabermetricians employ when studying baseball, the one that always intrigues me the most is VORP, or value over replacement player.

I decided I wanted to utilize the metric when studying fantasy football players.

In case you aren't familiar with VORP, Baseball Prospectus defines it as "The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances."

To apply it to fantasy football, however, we need to tweak it slightly. We'll call it VOBP, or value over bench player. 

The concept is simple: Which players from a season ago had the biggest discrepancy between them and a player that shouldn't have been started in a fantasy league? It's easy for quarterbacks and tight ends: In 10-team standard leagues, you compare a player to whomever finished 11th in the rankings.

For running backs and wide receivers, it's a bit more tricky. Since standard-leagues start two players at each position and are also incorporated into the flex, I've decided in 10-team leagues I would compare running backs and wide receivers to those players who finished 26th in their respective rankings (in 12-team leagues, we compare to players ranked 31st).

Since 50 players combined from the running back and wide receiver positions are started each week in 10-team leagues, it seemed natural to consider 25 from each position as starters.

The point of this exercise? To determine a player's value not by how many points he scores, but by how much additional value he offers over others at his position, and perhaps change perceptions about some of the old tried-and-true drafting strategies.

The Findings (Using Standard Scoring)

Player	Team	Position	2011 Points	2011 10-Team VOBP	2011 12-Team VOBP
Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	385	+163	+179
Drew Brees	NO	QB	380	+158	+174
Ray Rice	BAL	RB	283	+155	+175
LeSean McCoy	PHI	RB	270	+142	+162
Calvin Johnson	DET	WR	254	+137	+145
Rob Gronkowski	NE	TE	233	+134	+147
Tom Brady	NE	QB	352	+130	+146
Cam Newton	CAR	QB	352	+130	+146
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAC	RB	249	+121	+141
Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	333	+111	+127
Arian Foster	HOU	RB	238	+110	+130

These 11 players clearly dominated VOBP in 2011. For reference, here are the next players at each position. A clear drop-off occurs:

Player	Team	Position	2011 Points	2011 10-Team VOBP	2011 12-Team VOBP
Jordy Nelson	GB	WR	210	+93	+101
Jimmy Graham	NO	TE	187	+88	+101
Michael Turner and Marshawn Lynch	ATL and SEA	RB	203	+75	+95
Eli Manning	NYG	QB	273	+51	+67

What This Means

First off, this answers once and for all that Aaron Rodgers was the most valuable fantasy player in 2011. Not only did he score the most fantasy points, he had more value over others at his position than any other player, with Drew Brees and Ray Rice nipping at his heels.

It also speaks highly of how valuable Gronkowski and Megatron were compared to any other player at their position. Gronkowski's 46-point advantage over Graham was the biggest discrepancy between the top-two players at any position in fantasy football, with Megatron coming in at a close second at +44 over Jordy Nelson.

I think the conclusion for the quarterbacks is fairly evident and reflects common drafting advice: If you don't land a player in the elite class of quarterbacks, wait to select a signal-caller. There wasn't a significant difference between owning the sixth and 11th ranked signal callers in 2011.

For wide receivers, it's clear as well: Calvin Johnson is worthy of a first-round selection. Duh.

After that, there is a much smaller discrepancy between receivers. After Nelson, Wes Welker had a 2011 10-team VOBP of +89, Victor Cruz stood at +81, Larry Fitzgerald was +64, Steve Smith was +58, Roddy White was +55, Percy Harvin was +48 and both Vincent Jackson and Mike Wallace were each +45.

Like quarterback, the lesson is simple: Don't reach for wide receivers after Megatron. You won't lose as much value as the board thins as you might think.

Owning an elite running back is the way to go. The difference between the second back (Rice) and the fifth (Turner and Lynch) was a difference of 67 points. Contrast that to wide receivers, where the difference between Nelson (second in ranks) and Fitzgerald (fifth) was just 29 points.

This helps to explain why the first round is often full of running backs—and of late is full of quarterbacks—while in general only one wide receiver cracks the top 10. There is a more distinct elite class at running back and quarterback than you generally find at wide receiver.

Finally, we get to tight ends. One reason tight ends generally go later in drafts is because they don't offer as many overall points as other positions, and the difference between one tight end to the next is generally small.

Consider the difference between the third-best fantasy tight end last year (Aaron Hernandez) and the 11th (Brandon Pettigrew) was just 28 points. That's less than two points a week. If you miss out on the top options, there is really no incentive to reach for a player.

Unless you think that player is due for a breakout season like Gronkowski or Graham, that is. The value each had over the rest of the tight end field was unprecedented. Based on the sheer value Gronkowski offered compared to his positional peers alone, he should have been a first-round selection this season.

Well, if you think he can come anywhere close to replicating his 2011 campaign, that is.

Given these findings—and taking into account MJD's holdout, the fact that I think Newton will regress this season, Graham will replace Gronk as fantasy's most valuable tight end this season, Foster will replace Rice atop the running-back rankings and Chris Johnson will actually be good again—here is what I think the first round of a fantasy draft should look like based on VOBP rankings:

1. Aaron Rodgers

2. Drew Brees

3. Arian Foster

4. Ray Rice

5. LeSean McCoy

6. Tom Brady 

7. Calvin Johnson

8. Jimmy Graham

9. Matthew Stafford

10. Chris Johnson

The players aren't generally different from what you've seen, with the exception of Graham and Stafford sliding into the top 10. But the order is certainly skewed based on VOBP. Using VOBP, we see that much of conventional fantasy wisdom holds.

But certainly, Gronkowski and Graham threaten to change how we value tight ends moving forward. Don't be surprised if one or both are taken in the first round of your draft next summer.

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