NFL 2012: Bold Predictions for Each Division

With preseason games complete and rosters cut to 53, we can finally say that the 2012 NFL season is in full pads.

What better way to celebrate than by printing up some schedule grids and making a few predictions?

Six playoff teams from 2010 failed to qualify in 2011, which featured seven new division winners.  Five of those six finished in first place in 2010 (Seattle, Philadelphia, Kansas City, Indianapolis and Chicago), the fourth year in a row five divisional champions failed to make the playoffs the following season.

That kind of turnover is what makes the NFL great. It also makes predicting 2012 to any level of accuracy very difficult. Even with a few no-brainers, and I use that word cautiously, such as Green Bay and Houston (gulp), there's the ever present mess that is the West.

There's also the surprise team, such as San Francisco last year. And the surprisingly bad team, such as Philadelphia.

So after studying depth charts, filtering through preseason hype, analyzing schedules, all while keeping my own personal fan bias in check, I've confidently structured what the 2012 season will look like come January.

Here are a few predictions for each division.

AFC West: Kansas City Wins the Division

Both western divisions are perennially mysterious and, well, bad. Since the fall of the San Diego Chargers, there hasn't been a standout, clear-cut playoff team that anyone should feel good about.

At first glance, any team that has Peyton Manning under center should get the automatic bid for division champions. There are still a lot of questions regarding his arm strength. Hypothetically, let’s say he’s 85 percent of the Peyton Manning he was in 2010. Is that enough to battle through a brutal schedule and finish on top?

I have the Broncos starting 2-5, with losses to Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Houston, New England and New Orleans. Even with four games against Oakland and San Diego, and by no means do I consider them to be push-around teams, that deficit will be tough to overcome.

Kansas City is in for a rough start, too. Atlanta, Buffalo and New Orleans have them opening 0-3. But this team is built to last. With an excellent backfield featuring the dash and smash combination of Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis and a solid pair of tight ends in Tony Moeaki and Kevin Boss, this offense will sustain long, run-heavy drives that will choke defenses.

Matt Cassel is not a terrific quarterback. He doesn’t need to be terrific. He just needs to be a notch above “game-manager.”

Dwayne Bowe, Jonathan Baldwin and Steve Breaston all make reliable receiving targets. Mix in Dexter McCluster for some gadget plays and back them up with a defense that features an excellent secondary, and you have a 10-win Chiefs team. Good enough for first place in the West.

NFC West: Colin Kaepernick Takes over for Alex Smith

Seems like everywhere you look in the NFC West, there’s a quarterback battle. Arizona has John Skelton versus Kevin Kolb; Seattle has Russell Wilson versus Matt Flynn. What’s funny is that Colin Kaepernick would win both of those competitions. In fact, he’d be starting in San Francisco had it not been for an unlikely season by Alex Smith in 2011.

I try to avoid any of the preseason hype but there are certain factors, certain plays, certain techniques demonstrated by certain players that can’t be ignored. Kaepernick can run. He can throw. He can throw on the run. He’s big and he’s smart. There’s a reason why the 49ers traded up to draft him in 2011.

To be clear, there isn’t a quarterback controversy in San Francisco. Smith had a good season last year. Statistically it was mediocre, but stats aren’t everything. He was phenomenal in the playoffs and silenced a lot of critics.

That of course leads to high expectations and 2012 is the year that we learn whether the real Alex Smith is what we saw last season, or if last season was a fluke.

The odds are against him. I don’t expect the 49ers to repeat the kind of production we saw from them in 2011. Their defense will still be one of the best in the league. Their offense will still be underwhelming, yet productive. But there will be no bye week for them in the playoffs. I have them finishing 9-7, which will probably be good enough to win the West.

The question is what if it isn’t good enough? Is there a quarterback controversy next year? What if they make the playoffs, but are immediately eliminated due to poor quarterback play?

It’s far too early to worry about those scenarios, but if the 49ers don’t have more than two or three wins before their Week 9 bye, I can guarantee you that the Kaepernick rumblings will begin. And I wouldn’t be surprised if there are a few plays drawn up that feature his speed. In some form or fashion, we’ll see Kaepernick on the field in 2012.

AFC East: Buffalo Bills Win a Wild Card

You’ve probably read about this before. I’ve probably written about it before. The Buffalo Bills are an 11-win team, at least on paper.

I’ll spare you the qualifiers and just get right to the point. They have the best defensive line in football. As they should, spending $100 million on one side of it should at least put you in the top-five. Mario Williams brings that kind of swing, that kind of swagger. Remember last year when they finished 28^th against the run and 27^th in sacks? Forget about it.

But we’re not here to talk about defense. We’re here to talk about Fitzmagic. We’re here to rewrite history and reclaim relevance. It’s been 12 years since the Bills last played a 17^th game. Now, they have the most talented roster they’ve had in a decade.

It’s crazy to think that a depth chart mostly made up of undrafted free agents and a quarterback from Harvard could compete with the likes of New England and New York. Yet, here we are, awarding them a playoff berth. A 5-2 start breeds those types of overreactions and expectations. Unfortunately, that 5-2 start quickly deteriorated into a 6-10 finish in 2011.

Starting 5-2 this year isn’t out of the question. Even 6-1 isn’t out the question. But even if they were to stumble out of the gates, their last seven games feature four rookie quarterbacks. Finishing the season against Miami, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, St. Louis, Seattle, Miami and New York (Jets) means they can all but coast into a Wild Card.

A word of advice to the New England Patriots, things in the rear view mirror are a lot closer than they appear.

NFC East: Dallas Cowboys Win the Division

It’s been the same story in Dallas for the better part of a decade. They make some shocking moves in the offseason. They look sharp in preseason. The hype machine fires up and they get picked to reach the Super Bowl.

This season is different. Not many people are picking the Cowboys to go to the Super Bowl. In fact, most don’t think they’ll make the playoffs. That’s interesting considering they’ve followed their standard protocol, yet no hype.

Could this be the year that the Cowboys are finally worthy of all the hype they’ve been gifted in seasons past? I think yes.

This is the most talented roster they’ve fielded in years. They have two good, possibly great, running backs, one of the best tight ends to ever play the game, a top-10 quarterback, a defense with top-five potential and two great receivers. There are injury concerns no doubt, but if there’s a good time to be banged up in the NFL, it is in September.

One strength they don’t have is schedule. The NFC East is tough enough, add the NFC South and AFC North to the equation, and there isn’t much room for mistakes or injuries. But NFL champions aren’t built on easy roads. They’re built on good defenses, great quarterbacks and solid role players. Dallas will host and win a playoff game.

AFC South: Jaguars Win a Wildcard

The best line I read in all of preseason came from ESPN’s Paul Kuharsky in response to Maurice Jones-Drew ending his hold-out:

"

Well, that was easily the longest run for no gain of Maurice Jones-Drew’s career.

"

Well said P.K.

In a way, by picking the Jaguars to win a wild card, I feel like MJD in a holdout: this isn’t going to end well for me and I’ll probably look quite foolish when it’s all said and done.

Nine wins are not out of the question. Sweeping the Colts and Titans isn’t unbelievable. Stealing a game from the Texans isn’t likely, but nor is it unthinkable.

Nine wins is all they need. That’s all it took last year. Two 9-7 teams from the AFC made it in 2009. 9-7 is the goal. 10-6 is out of reach.

It will require an upset—beating Chicago, taking one from Houston, challenging New England—there has to be a few upsets.

There is no division with as much inexperience at quarterback as the AFC South. Andrew Luck enters his first year, Blaine Gabbert enters his second and Jake Locker enters his second but first as a starter.

Suggesting that any one of these teams can make a playoff run is absurd. Especially considering that the Bills are locked for one of the wild cards. If the Jaguars claim the other, the AFC North features only one playoff team.

That’s hard to believe but the Jaguars are going to surprise a lot of people this year.

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons Secure Home Field Advantage Throughout the Playoffs

The postseason hasn’t been kind to the Falcons. It was only a couple of years ago that they managed a first round bye thanks to a 13-3 season. Unfortunately, they hosted the Green Bay Packers and were completely dismantled.

Last year, they traveled to New York to face the Giants and managed only two points.

This year, they’re in prime position to not just return to the playoffs, but to secure home field advantage just as they did in 2010.

Is it still true that defense wins championships? The Giants won the Super Bowl last year despite ranking in the bottom eight for points and yards allowed. The Patriots, Packers and Saints were all bottom of the league defenses but still won their respective divisions with two, the Patriots and the Packers, winning home field advantage.

I ask this question, not trying to downgrade the historical and current relevance of a great defense, but instead trying to encourage forward thinking. Offense is king. In every format. If you look at the common denominator of the last nine Super Bowl champions, you’ll give the advantage to quarterbacks.

It’s rare that a great defense carries a bad or mediocre quarterback to an NFL championship. The opposite is much more common and much more likely.

Matt Ryan isn’t a great quarterback. His potential is great. He has a great combination of accuracy and arm strength. But even greater than that is his combination of wide receivers.

Roddy White and Julio Jones are the best one-two punch in the NFL. And it’s not even close. It’s going to be hard for any strong safety to edge to the line on a blitz. Or allow Jones and White behind them in favor of covering the best tight end to ever play, Tony Gonzalez.

Matt Ryan has options. If it’s not Jones or White, it’s Gonzalez. If it’s not Gonzalez, it’s nickel and diming defenses into playing the nickel and dime and slapping them up the middle with Michael Turner or burning them on the edges with Jacquizz Rodgers. There isn’t a defense designed to handle the kind of offense the Falcons will field in 2012. It hasn’t been invented yet.

Their defense wasn’t great last year, nor was it bad, ranking 12^th overall. They struggled against the pass, which may be the most important defensive stat, but acquiring Asante Samuel in the offseason certainly helps.

I see Atlanta opening 6-0 and finishing 13-3.

AFC North: Only One Team Makes the Playoffs

As mentioned, I’m giving a wild card to the AFC East and the AFC South. Last season the AFC North featured three playoff teams: Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Cincinnati. This year only one of those teams makes it.

Picking which one is a little difficult.

The Cleveland Browns are the easy one. They win two games.

The Cincinnati Bengals are in for a disappointing season as well. They won exactly zero games versus teams that made the playoffs last year. The first half of their schedule this year isn’t too tough, but after their bye week, when they face three NFC East teams plus Pittsburgh and Baltimore, they’ll see their playoff hopes disappear.

Baltimore is the popular pick. They’ve reached the playoffs four years in a row. Last year they made it all the way to the AFC championship game and were a dropped pass and a missed field goal away from the Super Bowl.

But this year, they’ll be watching from home. The absence of Terrell Suggs hurts that defense in a big way. Ray Lewis is 37. They have a good secondary and a good line, but as a whole, their defense is in for a major regression.

Joe Flacco is still trying to shake the game manager moniker despite leading the Ravens to the playoffs in every year he has been the starter. He still doesn’t have standout receivers. He doesn’t have a great tight end. Ray Rice was phenomenal last year, but he can’t make up for every offensive shortcoming that they’ll face, especially with a schedule as hectic as theirs.

We say it every year. Flacco isn’t good enough. The defense is aging. They don’t have receivers. Yet, every year, they prove us wrong. Every year except this one.

Pittsburgh wins the AFC North.

NFC North: Lions Win the Division

The gentrification of the Detroit Lions is almost complete.

2011 was the first time in 11 seasons that they won a playoff berth. Unfortunately, it sent them to the Superdome to face the Saints, who didn’t lose a single home game last year.

This year, the Lions won’t have to worry about going on the road in January (at least not until the championship game).

It’s obvious that the Green Bay Packers are the hands down favorite to win the North and probably the entire NFC. But the Lions have more talent and are on the cusp of being one of the best teams in the NFL.

Matthew Stafford will have a hard time outdoing himself after throwing over 5,000 yards and 41 touchdowns in 2011. But he certainly has the talent around him to come close.

Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew make this one of the hardest teams to defend, especially if their ground game gets healthy. Kevin Smith is a more than capable running back, a position the Lions are used to doing without, and we’re all excited to see what Mikel Leshoure can do once he returns from his two-game suspension.

The key word for the Lions is maturity. They are a young team, as evidenced by the seven arrests they logged since January. They were one of the most penalized teams in the NFL last year on both sides of the ball. There are reports of teammates getting into fights, which got Titus Young banned from practice. This team is a super talented collection of misfits.

They need to get healthy, stay healthy and not have any more off the field issues. Perhaps Jim Schwartz needs to issue Jerry Jones type of rules to his entire team.

No matter the case, the Lions have a good enough defense to keep them in games, and an explosive enough offense to put teams away. They’ll go 5-1 in the NFC North, sweeping the Vikings and the Bears, for a final record of 12-4.