2012 Fantasy Football Mock Draft: First-Round Talents to Avoid at All Costs

Two days away from the start of the NFL season brings out the worst in fantasy football players. They are scrambling to get in one more league and trying to piece together the greatest roster in the history of the world. 

Unfortunately, a lot of fantasy players are so set in their ways that they won't deviate from the norm under any circumstances. 

With this year's pool of talent, there is a lot of shuffling going on at the top. It is obviously a quarterback-driven league, but running backs are still the way to go early. So how should the first round of your draft play out?

Here is a look at a projected first-round mock draft, with a closer look at some of the names you have to avoid. 

No. 1: Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans

No argument here, as Foster proved beyond a shadow of a doubt last year that he was not just some one-year wonder. He is as safe a bet as anyone in the league to get 1,300 yards rushing and 10 touchdowns. 

Plus, Foster has emerged as a legitimate pass catcher out of the backfield with 119 receptions and four touchdowns the last two years. 

No. 2: LeSean McCoy, RB, Philadelphia Eagles

A great argument could be made for McCoy as the No. 1 overall pick in any draft. His six 100-yard rushing games last season were just one fewer than Foster and the same as Baltimore's Ray Rice. 

Oh, and by the way, McCoy had 20 total touchdowns in 2011. Since the Eagles are a better offensive team than either Houston or Baltimore, it is possible McCoy could actually improve upon his remarkable 2011 season. 

No. 3: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

From a yardage perspective, no one has been more consistent over the last three years than Rice. He has hovered around 1,300 yards each season since 2009, but his touchdowns are what make him one of the top three players in fantasy football. 

In 2009 and 2010 combined, Rice had 12 rushing touchdowns and two receiving touchdowns. Last year, he had 12 rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns. He is going to be the key to the Ravens' success on offense, as well as the safety net for Joe Flacco, in 2012. 

No. 4: Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions

Here is my first worrisome pick. I will not go so far as to say avoid Megatron completely, because that would be foolish, but I am not a fan of taking wide receivers in the first round. 

Johnson can put together stats that would rival any receiver in history this year, though if you look at his individual game stats from last year, he had a five-game stretch last year where he had a total of 317 yards and one touchdown. 

He did come back in Weeks 15 and 16, aka the conference championship rounds in fantasy football, with 316 yards and three touchdowns, but receivers are so dependent on quarterbacks that I think there is better value to be found out there. 

No. 5: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Another position I don't like drafting in the first round, Rodgers does alleviate a lot of those fears because he was as consistent from start to finish as any quarterback we have ever seen. 

The question is whether he can do it again, though looking at the weapons he has at his disposal, it would not be a shock to see him throw for 4,500 yards and 40-plus touchdowns again. 

No. 6: Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots

It sounds almost blasphemous to say, but I am not high on Brady—at least in the first round—in 2012. 

I know, the Golden Child can do no wrong, and he has thrown for more than 4,000 yards and at least 36 touchdowns in three of his last four full seasons. 

However, the Patriots have a weak offensive line, and at some point that style of dink-and-dunk passing is going to cause his numbers to drop. I am not saying he is going to be terrible—that would be insane. 

But just know that the quarterback position is loaded with players who can post 4,000 yards and 30-plus touchdowns, and you can get them much later than the first round. 

No. 7: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

It is hard to watch Jones-Drew play and not love what you see. He is the only offensive player worth having from the Jaguars, which is both a blessing and a curse. 

Since everyone knows he is going to get the ball, it is going to be much easier for teams to gear up and stop him. Of course, that could have been said last year, and all he did was lead the NFL in rushing yards. 

However, don't forget that he has missed all of training camp and is not going to start in Week 1, according to Ian Rapoport of NFL.com. As much fun as everyone has at the expense of preseason, those reps are important to get in game shape. 

Jones-Drew is at a decided disadvantage already, though he is not going to fall off a cliff. He could come right back and be his usual self. He could also look like Chris Johnson did last year when he missed camp waiting for a new contract. 

No. 8: Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans Saints

The Saints skew so heavily toward the pass—they threw the ball 662 times in 2011, compared to just 431 rush attempts—that Brees should have no problem throwing for 4,500 yards and 40 touchdowns again. 

He does have games where he throws a lot of interceptions, so that does put him a little behind Rodgers and Brady on the quarterback totem pole. 

No. 9: Chris Johnson, RB, Tennessee Titans

Johnson could actually turn out to be one of the biggest bargains this year. He was the No. 1 back last year, but his lost time due to a contract dispute put him behind the eight-ball. 

Now, Johnson has had a full camp to prepare for the regular season. He is going to have to create scoring opportunities for himself, because I don't think Jake Locker will find much success this season. 

Johnson still has that blazing speed to run around any defender, so he should at least approach double-digit rushing touchdowns again. 

No. 10: Matt Forte, RB, Chicago Bears

It is a good thing the Bears were able to recognize how much better their offense is with Forte a part of it and signed him to a new contract. 

With all the drama behind them, Forte and the Bears can focus on what should be a very fruitful relationship. He is going to be fine coming back from the knee injury that robbed him of the last month of the 2011 season. 

Plus, he is still the best receiver the Bears have. 

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