Five Fantasy Studs Destined for Failure in 2012

Every fantasy football league has one of those owners.

The owner who has memorized every statistic from the season before. The guy with cheat sheets and rankings for every position. He knows DeMarco Murray went off for 253 yards against the Rams last season, and he won’t let his fantasy cohorts forget it. He’s also the guy prepared to draft Murray in the first round, about to watch his title hopes crumble in the coming weeks.

Fantasy football is a reactionary game. Of the top-10 scorers in a given season, only three or four may hope to land in that same position the following year. Take Chris Johnson, for instance. He set the NFL record for yards from scrimmage in 2009, was a consensus top-three pick in most 2010 drafts, and followed two exceptional seasons by falling back to fantasy mediocrity during the 2011 campaign.

This season will be no different for many fantasy football favorites of a year ago. Drew Brees probably won’t break his NFL passing record set last season. It’s unlikely LeSean McCoy will account for 17 total touchdowns again. And Calvin Johnson may need a jetpack and an extension ladder to beat triple coverage every game and top his 16-touchdown performance of 2011.

But those aren’t the guys you should shy away from this season. The following is a list of fantasy favorites destined for failure this season.

Michael Turner: Atlanta Falcons

It’s hard to cut on a franchise running back that accounted for over 1,500 yards of total offense last season—unless that back turned 30 in the offseason, has taken an enormous beating season after season and is entrenched in an offensive system expected to lean more heavily on the passing game this year.

The wear looks to be catching up with Turner, who has appeared worn out and sluggish this preseason. With second-year speedster Jacquizz Rodgers nipping at his heels, Turner could be seeing a lot less work between the 20s in 2012.

Mix one part running back depth, one part wear and tear and two parts Roddy White/Julio Jones, and you have a recipe for a fantasy season outside the top 15 in positional scoring for Turner.

Andre Johnson: Houston Texans

Once considered the best wideout in the NFL, Andre Johnson is now just the “other” Johnson.

The Lions have staked their claim to the best receiver on the planet, while the Texans just hope to keep their star receiver on the field this season. The talent is still there, but his health remains a major question mark.

Johnson played in just seven games in 2011, and even when healthy, he has never managed to find the endzone more than nine times in a season. Houston has a lot of talent on offense, but without the ability to keep its weapons healthy, expect Johnson to put up fairly pedestrian numbers in 2012.

Phillip Rivers: San Diego Chargers

Rivers is coming off the worst season of his career, during which he threw 20 interceptions and posted four-year lows in touchdowns, completion percentage and yards per attempt.

Although a bad year for Rivers is better than a good year for half the quarterbacks in the league, his 88.7 passer rating landed Rivers outside the top 10 in the NFL in 2011.

With Vincent Jackson finding a new home in Tampa Bay and the question marks surrounding the Chargers’ running game (due in large part to the health of Ryan Mathews), don’t expect Rivers to put up elite fantasy numbers this year, either.

Frank Gore: San Francisco 49ers

Gore has been a first-round candidate for the last four seasons, so his fall in average draft position this year has many fantasy owners licking their chops at the chance to snag Gore as a potential starter. Don’t do it.

Although Gore seems like a steal in the fourth round and beyond, it is important to consider the state of the Niners offense.

San Francisco added Randy Moss and Mario Manningham to its receiving corps this offseason, and they didn’t sign just to block. Throw Kendall Hunter, Brandon Jacobs, Anthony Dixon and rookie LaMichael James into the mix, and there aren’t enough touches to go around.

Gore is expected to see a decline in carries this season, even at the goal line, which spells bad news for owners hoping to cash in on Gore in the fourth round or earlier.

Miles Austin: Dallas Cowboys

Sometimes a player’s production from year to year drops due to health concerns, and sometimes it is a result of the guy lining up on the other side of the field. Austin could be affected by both in 2012.

Last season, Austin missed six games due to injury, and has been dealing with a strained hamstring this preseason. Although fellow wideout Dez Bryant has injury issues of his own, Bryant has the potential to do big things in 2012.

In his sophomore campaign, Bryant hauled in 63 catches for 928 yards and nine touchdowns. Bryant looks to be the more reliable receiver moving forward, which is bad news for fantasy owners planning to use an early-round pick on Austin.