Fantasy Football 2012: 5 Expected Stars That Will Underproduce This Season

The fantasy football season is beginning, which is to say this is simply the greatest time of the year. Steals and draft-day trades are fun, but the key to a successful season is avoiding underproduction from one of your first three selections.

Last week, I introduced some sleepers from the NFC East. I made a point to emphasize that labeling someone a “sleeper”—or in this instance an “underproducer”—is only meaningful if I can also provide a context for when said player is selected. So, just because someone appears on the below list, it does not mean that you should refrain from drafting him. On the contrary, if you see him plummeting down the board, eventually it becomes a great move to end that free fall. 

Once again, all draft positions are courtesy of ESPN.com.      

1. Matthew Stafford (ADP: 12, No. 4 Quarterback)

Everybody loves Matthew Stafford and for good reason. He has the best fantasy wide receiver in football, is going to pass it 600-something times and has a running game that is as brittle as a Jolly Rancher.

But is he really worth a first- or second-round pick?  That is to say, is he really 15 picks better than Eli Manning, 25 picks better than Michael Vick or 32 picks better than Peyton? Can you even say with certainty that he will out-produce someone like Matt Ryan, who has an ADP of 62?

Your time would be much better served drafting a running back who is not coming off an injury or a top-tier wide receiver. 

The health issues are likely a thing of the past, but if there’s one thing that can kill a fantasy season, it’s losing your first pick to injury.

2. Matt Forte (ADP: 15, No. 6 Running Back)

This was a really tricky one. Finding a reliable running back is becoming an increasingly difficult endeavor every year, and this year is especially rough. I struggle to recall one in which there were so many guys coming back from injury.

And that’s exactly why it makes so much sense to draft “reliable” runners in the first two rounds. Matt Forte has the potential to be one of the most valuable players in the league, especially in one that has PPR scoring.

But what about the health, Michael Bush situation and limited practice time?   

The guys after him are not much better. DeMarco Murray, Adrian Peterson, Darren McFadden and Jamaal Charles are all in the same boat. However, the reason I have gone with Forte is that any of those other guys may accumulate a similar amount of points if they can remain healthy. Yet, they are going a round later.

Forte is not a bad selection if you can grab him in the late-second/early-third round, especially if some of the other second-tier backs start going above him. Fifteen means that he is most likely going to someone with a late first-round slot. Although I can see the appeal in getting a running back (especially if you have used your first selection on someone like Brees or Calvin Johnson), it is certainly a risky proposition. 

3. Wes Welker (ADP: 23, No. 6 Wide Receiver)

(Obligatory Welker bash.)

Year after year, Wes Welker finds his way onto lists like this, and year after year, he makes the inclusions seem totally irrational. 

There are (as usual) many reasons to pass on the 5’9” sensation. 

First, he’s 31 years old. Second, the development of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, paired with the fact that Belichick loves to be ahead of the curve of NFL trends, means New England may spend even more time operating out of the two tight end set in 2012 than they did last season. 

Brandon Lloyd is getting a lot of “sleeper” attention, but I actually don’t know about that. We’ve seen plenty of seemingly underachieving wideouts come to New England and continue to do just that. Besides, having more depth at wide receiver doesn’t necessarily mean the total number of “quality” targets goes down for the other. I’ll concede that acquisition as a neutral one as it pertains to Welker’s fantasy value. 

The real reason for my hesitancy is that Welker had much more of a hit-or-miss style of fantasy point accumulation last season than is desired in a wide receiver. Welker had five games of over 125 yards but six under 55. He had nine touchdowns scored over the course of six games. 

Welker will get his due, and since so many people are anticipating a decline, he is a great second or third option at the position, but there’s no way I’d take him ahead of A.J. Green, Julio Jones, Victor Cruz, Brandon Marshall or Jordy Nelson.

4. Mike Wallace (ADP: 28, No. 7 Wide Receiver)

Similar situation here as with Welker. Mike Wallace is a great talent, but how many times have we seen a player struggle after dealing with contract issues in the offseason?

Delaying a selection for injuries is one thing, but too often we forget the amount of intense physical perpetration that players must go through in the offseason to be ready come September. Missing out on that is a very legitimate reason to be concerned. 

Wallace will get his 50-yard receptions, but once again I would think twice before selecting him over some of the other receivers mentioned earlier. 

5. Steven Jackson (ADP: 31, No. 12 Running Back)

Steven Jackson has been on my “underproducer” list for years now, and that is not changing heading into 2012. There is no denying his ability, but perhaps more so than any other player in the NFL, Jackson is crippled by a talentless team.    

He struggles to find the red zone (30 touchdowns over the last five seasons) and cannot capitalize on potential PPR production (43 receptions/year after bringing in 90 balls in 2006). Injuries might be yesterday's problem (has has missed two games over the last three seasons), but so may be his elite status.

Get some good depth at wide receiver, or consider Gronkowski or Jimmy Graham if they are still available at pick 30. You will see better value with the less sexy Fred Jackson, Darren Sproles, or Willis McGahee.