Fantasy Football 2012 Cheat Sheet: Keys to Help Find Diamonds in the Rough at QB

The sleeper pick at QB can be the difference between winning your fantasy football league and finishing just out of the money (figuratively speaking, of course).

Is there a science to finding that diamond in the rough? Probably not. Like many things we analyze, much of it will come down to dumb luck.

However, there are a few factors you can watch out for. I've noted these keys below, and I've included some players that may fit into these categories for the 2012 season.

Let's take a look at some different scenarios that can produce sleepers.

(Fantasy-point references are per Fantasy Football Today.)

Rookies Capable of Taking Starting Job From Day 1

According to Fantasy Football Today, Cam Newton (27.6) and Andy Dalton (16.9) each averaged at least 16.9 fantasy points per game in 2011.

Newton was an absolute fantasy beast, and Dalton was what you call steady but not a star. If you had Newton as your starter, you were fine, and if you had Dalton as a secondary option, you were good when your top guy was on a bye week. 

Who Could Be This Year's Versions of Newton and Dalton?

Obviously it's Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III. Luck has looked sharp in the preseason, and he is perhaps the most NFL-ready rookie QB in years.

From a pure fantasy standpoint, he has the best chance at being this year's Newton. He won't get the rushing points that Newton did (14 rushing TDs and 706 yards), although he is very mobile.

But the bottom line could be similar. 

RG3's game is far different from Dalton's, but the fantasy numbers probably won't be.

Griffin III doesn't have an abundance of weapons, but he's more dynamic, and his ability to run and make plays on the move will compensate.

This will cause things to even out, and I project he'll average somewhere close to 18 fantasy points per game.

Don't sleep on Ryan Tannehill, either. He has shown himself pretty proficient thus far.

I still think he's behind Luck and RG3, but he isn't the worst option as a second or third QB on your fantasy squad.

Backups Ready to Unseat Ineffective or Injury-Prone Starters

Last year John Skelton took over for Kevin Kolb in Arizona. Kolb wasn't doing much before he got hurt, and once he went down, Skelton came in and played well.

In eight games Skelton averaged 19.1 fantasy points per game. This would have been a solid guy to have as a second or third option on your team in 2011.

Who Could Be This Year's Skelton?

As a Bears fan I cringe at the thought, but if Jay Cutler goes down again, the Bears have a very capable backup in Jason Campbell.

The team has a nice complement of weapons this year in Brandon Marshall, Matt Forte, Devin Hester and rookie Alshon Jeffery. Campbell could come in and put up decent numbers in Cutler's stead.

I wouldn't necessarily call Cutler injury prone, but the Bears O-line is still a question mark, especially at LT, with J'Marcus Webb battling Chris Williams for the starting job.

With that dynamic, any QB could be considered injury prone.

In addition to the Cutler-Campbell combination, you have the Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow drama. 

Sanchez has been pretty durable his entire career. He's only missed one game in his three NFL seasons, but his play has been inconsistent.

Even though his fantasy points per game have ascended every year (13.3 in 2009, 16.3 in 2010 and 20.3 in 2011), the leash on Sanchez is short.

Much of it is due to Tebow's star power and great intangibles, but some of it is because the Jets haven't reached the heights some expected of them.

That said, Tebow could be the most attractive fantasy pick amongst non-starters. I am of the opinion that it's only a matter of time before Tebow takes over the job from Sanchez.

If you believe that too, then you see my point in targeting Tebow as a possible sleeper—if that word can even be used on a guy like Tebow.

Keep an eye on this and other similar situations when picking your second-tier QBs.

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