Which Reach Will Destroy Your Fantasy Football Season?

The opening night contest between the defending Super Bowl champion New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys is less than two weeks away, and that means that fantasy draft season has reached a fever pitch as leagues get their squads set for the 2012 campaign.

Nothing can throw a monkey wrench into your championship aspirations faster than drafting a player who doesn't live up to the hype, so here are some players that have a good enough chance of being fantasy disappointments this year to inspire caution from prudent team owners.

It's worth noting that in many cases these are great players that will probably have very solid seasons. Those seasons just won't be good enough to justify their lofty sticker price.

Average draft position courtesy of MyFantasyLeague.com.

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers

Average Draft Position: Second Round (Pick 15, QB4)

Given that more quarterbacks threw for 5,000 yards last year than in every other year of the NFL's existence combined, it's not surprising that the quarterback position has taken on added importance in fantasy football leagues.

It's also no big surprise that after topping 4,000 passing yards and setting an NFL record for rushing touchdowns by a signal-caller in a season that Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton would be among the first handful of players at his position chosen in fantasy drafts this year.

What will come as an unwelcome surprise to fantasy teams that spend an early second-round pick on Newton is when his numbers regress this year.

Simply put, 14 rushing touchdowns isn't a sustainable number for a quarterback, especially after the Panthers brought in fullback Mike Tolbert, who will poach more than a few of the goal-line plunges that were Newton's bread and butter a year ago.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Average Draft Position: Second Round (Pick 14, RB6)

Granted, sometimes in fantasy football you have to take risks, and those risky plays can often be the final piece to a championship puzzle.

Then there's the unnecessary risks that are the fantasy equivalent of shooting yourself in the foot.

Jacksonville Jaguars running back Maurice Jones-Drew falls into the latter category.

The NFL's leading rusher in 2011 is involved in an increasingly contentious contract holdout with the Jaguars that has now descended into the realm of public sniping and trade speculation that will probably never come to pass.

Even if Jones-Drew were to be traded (which is highly unlikely), there's still the matter of his contract, learning a new offense and his conditioning.

Burning a second-round pick on a lot of "maybes" and "what ifs" is a recipe for fantasy disaster.

Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego Chargers

Average Draft Position: Second Round (Pick 22, RB9)

San Diego Chargers running back Ryan Mathews was already something of a risky pick this season—though the potential for a heavy workload as the Chargers' featured back was tempting, his injury history made choosing the third-year pro in the first round of fantasy drafts something of a gamble.

That was before Mathews broke his clavicle in San Diego's preseason opener.

This latest setback only serves to raise more durability concerns about Mathews, and with beat writer Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune speculating that Mathews could be held out until Week 3, he's become more trouble than he's worth as a top-10 running back pick.

Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Average Draft Position: Second Round (Pick 24, WR5)

You know, if the last pick of the second round in a 12-team league was actually Julio Jones' current ADP I'd have no issue with it, as the second-year pro seems set for a breakout sophomore season.

However, everyone thinks that Jones is set for a breakout season, and that combined with his monstrous showing in Atlanta's preseason opener has sent Jones' fantasy stock skyrocketing.

Jones has now become the second wideout off many draft boards, trailing only Calvin Johnson of the Detroit Lions, and with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez still very much in the mix in Atlanta, Jones will have to have a best-case scenario season just to meet his current asking price.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

Average Draft Position: Round Two (Pick 17, TE2)

I've been beating this particular drum all summer long, and either someone's listening or I'm not the only drummer, because not only has New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski's ADP slipped a bit, but also he's been passed by Jimmy Graham as the top tight end in fantasy drafts.

However, Gronkowski is still a first-round pick in many drafts, and that's just not advisable unless your fantasy football league calls for two starters at tight end or has a scoring format that favors the position.

The reason is simple. Gronkowski's record-setting 17 touchdowns in 2011 is the sort of statistic that begs for a backslide, especially given the improvements that were made to the New England receiving corps in the offseason.

It wouldn't be at all surprising if that number regressed to the 10-11 TD range, and while even then "Gronk" would be an elite fantasy tight end, fantasy owners who reached early for him would no doubt be left grumbling.