Likelihood Each Backup QB Starts at Least 1 Game in 2012

Backup quarterbacks in the NFL are constantly waiting for one chance to prove they have what it takes to succeed in the league and be a starting quarterback.

Whether that chance comes from an injury or poor play from the starting quarterback, a backup needs to be ready to come in and perform at a moment's notice. Unfortunately, the odds of a backup quarterback playing even a single game in the NFL is rather minute.

Today we'll look at the backup's odds for each of the 32 teams in the league of starting at least one game this year.

Arizona Cardinals

Backup's Odds: 100 Percent

Whether Kevin Kolb or John Skelton gets the nod for the Arizona Cardinals doesn't really matter for it's only a matter of time before one replaces the other as the starting quarterback.

The situation in Arizona reminds me a lot of the Washington Redskins last year. Rex Grossman was the opening day starter, but by Week 6 he was back on the bench and backup John Beck was in to replace him. However, Beck couldn't keep the starting job and Grossman was back in the lineup three weeks later.

Look for there to be plenty of switching back and forth between Kolb and Skelton throughout the season for the Cardinals.

Atlanta Falcons

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

Matt Ryan has earned the right to start for the Atlanta Falcons for the rest of his life ever since he stepped onto the field as a rookie, made the city of Atlanta forget about Michael Vick and led them to the playoffs.

While his 0-3 playoff record leaves much to be desired, he'd have to struggle terribly through the first half of the season to be replaced by his backup Chris Redman. The likelihood of that happening with weapons like Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez at his disposal is slim to none.

The Falcons have one of the better rosters on paper, and this could finally be the year that they make a deep run in the playoffs. That will only happen if Ryan is the starting quarterback.

Baltimore Ravens

Backup's Odds:  15 percent

These odds may seem high for a backup to replace a quarterback who led his team to the AFC Championship Game last year, but there are still major questions surrounding Joe Flacco.

For starters, Flacco's numbers went down drastically last year. His completion percentage went from 62.6 percent to 57.6 percent and his touchdown-to-interception ratio of plus-eight was the worst since his rookie season in 2008.

The biggest issue with Flacco has been his turnovers. His 18 last year were the highest of his career and whenever a quarterback is prone to turnovers, it never turns out well.

Of course, the Baltimore Ravens are going to give him every chance in the world to keep his starting job, but if the team struggles, there is definitely a chance that they could turn to Tyrod Taylor for a game or two to spell Flacco.

Buffalo Bills

Backup's Odds: 30 Percent

Vince Young signing with the Buffalo Bills didn't get much publicity, but it was one of the better moves made by the Bills this offseason.

Last year when Fitzpatrick struggled they had no one to turn to. Now, if Fitzpatrick again suffers through a cold streak, the Bills can turn to Young. In fact, Young might be the perfect fit in Chan Gailey's unique offensive game plan.

We'll likely know whether Fitzpatrick will last the entire season by Week 5 after he's done playing teams like the New York Jets, New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers. If he struggles, we could definitely see Young get a chance at starting quarterback.

Carolina Panthers

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

Let's see here.

On one hand we have Cam Newton, the most exciting and explosive quarterback to enter the league in years. On the other hand we have Derek Anderson who did this.

Yeah, zero percent odds sounds about right.

Chicago Bears

Backup's Odds: Five Percent

If the Chicago Bears had any other backup quarterback than Jason Campbell, the odds of that quarterback playing would absolutely be zero percent.

However, the Bears finally brought in an experienced quarterback should something happen to Jay Cutler. When you consider Cutler's recent battles with injuries—broken thumb in 2011 and sprained MCL at the end of 2010—there at least needs to be consideration for Campbell if Cutler gets injured again or struggles to start the season.

Had Campbell not gotten injured himself during Week 6 of last season with the Oakland Raiders, it's likely that he'd still be starting for the silver and black. Unfortunately injuries happen, and Campbell finds himself with a minuscule chance to see the field in Chicago this year.

Cincinnati Bengals

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

Look, I love Bruce Gradkowski as much as the next guy, but there is zero chance he gets into a game this year for the Cincinnati Bengals.

Andy Dalton played extremely well as a rookie last year when he led the Bengals to the playoffs. Dalton's instant connection with top receiver A.J. Green is the biggest reason why Cincinnati simply can't afford to bench him.

Green has the potential to become a top-five receiver this year and that simply won't happen if his chemistry with Dalton is forced to the side because of Gradkowski. While the Bengals will be thankful to have him should anything terrible happen to Dalton, look for Gradkowski to spend the entire year on the bench.

Cleveland Browns

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

There's little doubt that Brandon Weeden is going to be starting for the Cleveland Browns this year after they drafted him in the first round. He'll be 29 years old in October and Cleveland can't wait around for a few years.

Even if Weeden struggles this year, which he is likely to do, the Browns won't dream of taking him out and putting Colt McCoy in the starting lineup. They'll need to be committed to Weeden and the only way to do that is to stick with him through good and bad of his rookie season.

The future of the Browns rests on Weeden's already oldish-man arm, and McCoy won't be able to take that away.

Dallas Cowboys

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

You can call Tony Romo "choker" or "joker" or any hip word kids are making up these days, but the reality is that his job is as secure as a Zurich bank.

While Kyle Orton has certainly gotten his fair share of starting jobs from the backup quarterback position, Dallas is too big of a stage and Romo is too talented for that to happen this year. The Cowboys figure to be major players in the playoff picture this year, and if they really want to make a deep run they'll need Romo on the field.

Orton will be a nice piece of insurance should anything happen to Romo, but he'll spend the entire year on the bench for the Cowboys.

Denver Broncos

Backup's Odds: One Percent

I'm sorry, but you don't sign Peyton Manning to a massive contract after numerous neck surgeries to only have him play 15 games of the season. While his neck is certainly a concern, the Denver Broncos wouldn't trade away the face of their franchise (yes, I'm talking about Tim Tebow) if they weren't 100 percent confident Manning was fully healed

Adam Weber, Caleb Hanie and Brock Osweiler have about as good a chance at starting a game this year as I have of winning America's Next Top Model.

Detroit Lions

Backup's Odds: Five Percent

Matthew Stafford is one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. In his first full season as a starter, Stafford threw for over 5,000 passing yards and 41 touchdowns.

The only reason that Shaun Hill would start a game this season was if Stafford were to get injured. Considering that Stafford missed 19 games in his first two seasons, a potential injury gives Hill the smallest of odds to start at least one game this season.

Green Bay Packers

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

When you have the greatest football player in the world as your quarterback, it would take a nuclear strike to get him off the field.

While you could argue that if the Green Bay Packers have already locked up home-field advantage late in the season they would bench Rodgers to keep him healthy, I can't see that happening. After sitting out last year's final regular season game against the Lions, Rodgers looked flat in the playoff loss to the New York Giants. There is no way that they'd make the same mistake again.

There is simply no doubt that Rodgers is starting all 16 games this season.

Houston Texans

Backup's Odds: 20 Percent

When Matt Schaub is on the field he is one of the better quarterbacks in the league. However, Schaub has missed 16 games in the past five years due to a collection of injuries.

This year he'll be returning from a foot injury that forced him out of the final six games last year. If that injury is still bothering him to start the season, it's likely that his performance will drop.

When Schaub got injured last year, T.J. Yates did a fantastic job of leading the Houston Texans to their first playoff appearance in franchise history. He even won their first-round game against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Should Schaub struggle at the beginning of the year, the Texans could look at Yates to lead them again.

Indianapolis Colts

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

You don't release the greatest player in the history of your franchise and turn to a rookie quarterback just to put him on the bench for a game or two.

Andrew Luck will be starting every game for the Indianapolis Colts for a long time.

Jacksonville Jagaurs

Backup's Odds: 99 Percent

To say that Blaine Gabbert had a rough rookie season would be quite the understatement. He finished the year with a 65.4 quarterback rating and 12 interceptions to only 11 touchdowns.

The problem with Gabbert's game didn't revolve around his physical skill set, but rather his understanding of the game and how he deals with pressure. Those reasons make me believe that he'll continue to struggle during his sophomore season. 

The Jacksonville Jaguars brought in Chad Henne just in case Gabbert can't turn his career around, which is the most likely scenario. Henne should be starting by midseason in Jacksonville and trying to salvage whatever he can from a difficult start to the season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Backup's Odds: 20 Percent

If the Kansas City Chiefs had better backup quarterbacks on their roster, the odds of them starting a game would be much higher. However, Brady Quinn and Ricky Stanzi aren't exactly the best backup quarterbacks in the league.

Despite making it to the Pro Bowl in 2010, there are still questions surrounding the game of Matt Cassel. His start to the 2011 season didn't lay to rest those doubts. In nine game he completed less than 60 percent of his passes with only 10 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

Cassel will begin the year as the starting quarterback in Kansas City, but if he struggles to play consistent football and the Chiefs begin losing, they could insert one of their backups to provide a spark to the season.

Miami Dolphins

Backup's Odds: 100 Percent

The Miami Dolphins have one of the most difficult quarterback situations to understand in the entire NFL. Their quarterbacks consist of a lifelong backup (Matt Moore), a previously unretired player (David Garrard) and a raw rookie (Ryan Tannehill).

Garrard will likely be the opening-day starter in Miami, but he'll be on one of the shortest leashes in the league. At the first sign of trouble, the Dolphins will pull Garrard for either Moore or Tannehill.

My money is on the rookie simply because you don't draft a player with the eighth pick of the first round and sit him on the bench while the team struggles. Whether it is Tannehill or Moore that replaces Garrard doesn't really matter.

All that matters right now is that there is a 100 percent chance that he will be replaced.

Minnesota Vikings

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

Despite having an up-and-down rookie season, Christian Ponder displayed all the tools necessary in a starting quarterback in the NFL.

Even if Ponder begins the season by struggling, it is extremely unlikely that the Minnesota Vikings would start anyone else. This has more to do with the Vikings other quarterbacks than the poor play of Ponder.

With Sage Rosenfels and Joe Webb sitting behind Ponder on the depth chart, the Vikings don't really have any other options. Ponder will start all 16 games this year, but if he doesn't show improvement or consistent play, the Vikings could be looking for a new quarterback in 2013.

New England Patriots

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

When your name is Tom Brady you start every single game of a season.

Case closed.

New Orleans Saints

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

See Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

Drew Brees is one of the most valuable players in the league and there is no way possible that he'll sit on the bench for even a single game.

New York Giants

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

Eli Manning has two Super Bowl rings. David Carr has never played two consecutive plays without getting sacked. See where I'm going with this?

Manning will get the start in all 16 games this year as the New York Giants attempt to defend the Lombardi Trophy.

New York Jets

Backup's Odds: 100 Percent

It's Tim Tebow.

Of course he is going to start at least one game this season. And yes, he'll probably win that game and a number of other games.

It will be extremely ugly along the way, but it will be a win nonetheless. 

Oakland Raiders

Backup's Odds: 50 Percent

Even though the Oakland Raiders gave away a number of draft picks for Carson Palmer, his play during the 2011 season did little to convince anyone that he is the answer in Oakland. In 10 games last year, Palmer had a 80.5 quarterback rating, 13 touchdowns and 16 interceptions.

With two talented and young quarterbacks behind Palmer in Matt Leinart and Terrelle Pryor, the Raiders would certainly turn to one of them if Palmer continues to struggle in 2012. The Raiders have a chance to win the AFC West, but that will only happen with solid quarterback play.

If Palmer can't be that solid quarterback, they'll switch to another quarterback.

Philadelphia Eagles

Backup's Odds: 99.9 Percent

Michael Vick has only played all 16 games of a regular season once in his nine-year career. To say that he is prone to injuries is like saying an Eskimo is prone to being cold; it's a scientific fact.

Vick is such a unique and game-changing player that him being on the field for a full regular season would make the Philadelphia Eagles a legitimate Super Bowl contender.

Unfortunately he takes too many big hits, making him an obvious candidate to go down for at least one game this season. 

Pittsburgh Steelers

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

With Rashard Mendenhall expected to miss the majority of the 2012 season, the Pittsburgh Steelers simply can't afford to lose Ben Roethlisberger for even one game. This is even more true with an aging defense and a top wide receiver who is having major contract issues.

If the Steelers want to continue their dominance in the AFC North, they'll need Big Ben to play at his best for a full season. Considering that Roethlisberger has been known for playing through injuries in the past, anything less than a fully-broken femur won't be able to keep him off the field this year.

San Diego Chargers

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

Much like many other NFL teams with elite quarterbacks, the San Diego Chargers will live and die with their starting quarterback Philip Rivers. If he goes down, the season will be completely lost.

While Rivers hasn't always been a fan favorite in San Diego or around the NFL, you simply can't deny what he does on the field to help his team win. Charlie Whitehurst can't do what Rivers does, and neither can Jarrett Lee.

Rivers is the key to the Chargers posting a record above .500 this year, so he simply can't find himself on the bench.

San Francisco 49ers

Backup's Odds: 10 Percent

With all the progress that Alex Smith made last year, it's hard to give his backups any odds at all, but the jury is still out on whether Smith can continue improving across the board.

He'll continue to be watched closely and at the first sign of regression, the San Francisco 49ers could turn to one of their young backup quarterbacks. Both Josh Johnson and Colin Kaepernick are oozing with potential and waiting for their opportunity to show that they can be successful NFL quarterbacks.

With the 49ers once again looking to go far in the playoffs, it's unlikely, but still a small possibility, that they'll stray from the quarterback that took them there this year.

Seattle Seahawks

Backup's Odds: 80 Percent

The Seattle Seahawks have one of the most exciting quarterback situations in the league. Matt Flynn, Tarvaris Jackson and Russell Wilson could all be the starting quarterback in Seattle at some point during the season.

While Flynn will likely be named the starter for Week 1, Wilson is the type of human being that you simply can't pass on for too long. He's intelligent and has all the tools necessary to be a great quarterback despite his height.

Wilson is clearly the future for the Seahawks, and without major financial ties to either Flynn or Jackson, Seattle could turn to the rookie sometime during the season if the team is struggling.

St. Louis Rams

Backup's Odds: 30 Percent

I know that 30 percent odds seems rather high for Kellen Clemens to come in for Sam Bradford, but after Bradford's 2011 season anything is possible. Not only did Bradford struggle mightily with injuries last year, but even when he was on the field he looked incapable of being a starting quarterback.

His 53.5 completion percentage was awful, but the biggest concern was his 13 combined turnovers in just 10 games played. While I do expect Bradford to bounce back from his poor sophomore season, there is a possibility that he'll continue to regress from his Offensive Rookie of the Year season.

If that happens, Clemens will find his way onto the field for the St. Louis Rams. Hopefully, that doesn't happen because Clemens' talent is way less than Bradford's, and by making the switch the Rams would be basically giving up on their season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Backup's Odds: 15 Percent

After an impressive sophomore season, Josh Freeman had a terrible year in 2011. His 22 interceptions were the second most in the NFL, and he just looked absolutely lost at times.

He'll still be starting for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2012, and with a new weapon in Vincent Jackson and a new protector in Carl Nicks, he should have a much better season. However, nothing is guaranteed, and Tampa Bay brought in Dan Orlovsky in the offseason just in case Freeman continues to struggle.

Freeman should have a bounce-back season, and the Buccaneers will be a team to watch in the NFC South this year.

Tennessee Titans

Backup's Odds: 90 Percent

The most likely scenario for the Tennessee Titans is the team going with the veteran quarterback Matt Hasselbeck to start the season. Jake Locker will get every chance during training camp and the preseason to win the job, but with a difficult early schedule, Hasselbeck will ultimately get the starting job.

With that said, it won't be long before the Titans realize that Locker is the more talented quarterback and the one that gives them the best chance to win. The only way that Locker won't be starting by midseason is if the Titans have an incredible record because of the play of Hasselbeck.

If that happens, Locker will have to wait one more year, but I simply can't see the Titans starting the year 7-1 or 6-2.

Washington Redskins

Backup's Odds: Zero Percent

The Washington Redskins traded away three first-round picks and a second-round pick for the rights to draft Robert Griffin III.

You simply don't give up that much and not start Griffin every single game this year and several successive years.