2012 NFL Preview: Which 2011 Playoff Teams Should You Wager Against in Week 1?

Veteran sports bettors are always looking for an edge, some sort of tip or trend that turns the odds slightly in their favor. Searching for one is usually fruitless labor, but new research suggests Week 1 of the NFL season provides a rare opportunity.

The study, titled “Early Season Inefficiencies in the NFL Sports Betting Market,” was conducted by students at the Ohio University Honors Tutorial College and won't be available in full until July 2013. The abstract, however, has already been released (you can view it here) and contains a very interesting thesis. Per the abstract:

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NFL teams that qualified for the playoffs in the prior season are favored by too large a margin in the opening week of the following season. Systematic betting based on this trend results in significant profitability over the 2004-2011 seasons with an average return over 25% per game. We posit this can be explained by gamblers’ tendencies to cling to perceptions of teams formed from observation in the prior season.

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In layman's terms, gamblers subconsciously overrate teams who made the playoffs the previous season, and the sportsbooks consciously skew lines toward that bias. And whenever the book starts pandering to the gambling public, there is value to be had

This is, of course, antithetical to a common-held belief that Week 1 is the worst week to wager on, since the variability is greater, and the results of offseason transactions have yet to be measured. But betting isn't about anecdotal tropes; it's about numbers. And in this case, the numbers don't lie.

The study's data won't be made available until next summer, but the folks at Beyond the Bets (BTB) took the liberty of conducting their own research, and validating its claims (albeit in a relatively small sample size). According to BTB, playoff teams from the previous season have gone 39-54-3 against the spread to open the next season (since 2004), good for a win-rate of 41.9 percent.

Anything which deviates that far from 50 percent––in either direction––is enough to raise eyebrows.

In 2011, the theory held true to form: six playoff teams from 2010 faced non-playoff teams in Week 1, and only two (Philadelphia and New England) covered the spread. Kansas City, Indianapolis, Seattle and the New York Jets all failed to cover, and––perhaps most remarkably––out of those teams, only the Jets won the game straight up.

So what does all this mean for bettors looking for an edge in 2012? Well, it means that by shedding preconceived notions about recent success, there's money to be made in the season's first week. Here's a quick look ahead at this year's playoff teams facing non-playoff teams in Week 1:

Dallas at New York Giants -3.5

The recent dominance of the reigning Super Bowl Champions in Week 1 is well-documented. Since being awarded the right to host the NFL Kickoff Game in 2004, the team that hoisted the previous year's trophy has been victorious eight consecutive times.

But the results haven't been quite as one-sided as they appear at first glance. Since the Colts' 41-10 thrashing of the Saints in 2007, no previous champion has won by double-digits.

Add in the perpetual variability of the Giants-Cowboys series (they've split the last six contests in New York), and there's reason to be uneasy if you plan on betting on Eli & Co.

Dallas won't be intimidated walking into the New Meadowlands to open the season. They know the Giants well, they've proven they can beat them, and deep down, they genuinely believe they're the better team.

New York's vaunted wide receiver corps has lost Mario Manningham, while Dallas' previously porous secondary has added Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne. The latter is a rookie appearing on a grand stage, but he does have big-game experience after playing in last year's national championship for LSU.

On top of that, Tony Romo has been a historically front-loaded performer (playing his best early in the season), whereas Eli tends to get off to rocky starts and save his best for the season's final weeks.

The Giants' crowd might be able to will them to a victory, but it could easily be a late field-goal that gets them there.

The Pick: Dallas +3.5

New England -6.5 at Tennessee

Tennessee was feisty at home last season, going 5-3 overall, with two victories over playoff teams (Baltimore and pre-Tebow Denver). They also boast an allegedly new-and-improved Chris Johnson, running behind one of the league's premier offensive lines.

This could all serve to test the Patriots' revamped defense, which was among the league's worst in 2011.

But then again, let's take a look at the Patriots' last five Week 1 performances:

2011: W—38-24 at Miami

2010: W—38-24 vs Cincinnati

2009: W—25-24 vs Buffalo (Brady's first game back from injury)

2008: W—17-10 vs Kansas City (Brady leaves game with season-ending injury)

2007: W—38-14 at New York Jets

The Pats' average margin-of-victory is 17.3 points in games where Brady didn't either get hurt or recently return from season-ending injury. Just as Andy Reid is infallible coming off a bye week, Bill Belichick can't be touched coming off a full offseason.

There are few safer bets in sports than Brady and Belichick in Week 1.

The Pick: New England -6.5

Atlanta -1 at Kansas City

Quick, name the nine quarterbacks who have won ten-plus games multiple times since 2008. The answer: Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Manning (x2), Roethlisberger, Ryan, Flacco and....Matt Cassel?

Wait, what?

You heard me right. The Chiefs' franchise quarterback came under scrutiny after a disappointing 2011 campaign, but Kansas City's season was doomed the moment Jamaal Charles' ACL exploded in Week 1.

With Cassel and Charles back in the lineup, however, the Chiefs should be able to build off a strong 2011 finish (remember, they're the only team that beat the Packers in the regular season), and accomplish even more in 2012.

The Falcons, meanwhile, have been running in place for years now. The city of Atlanta must be going mad, with both the Falcons and Hawks stuck in the same conundrum: too good to miss the playoffs (and secure a high draft pick), not good enough to make a deep run.

Opening on the road in a hostile environment didn't work out too well for Atlanta in 2011, either, as the Bears dismantled them 30-12 in Chicago.

The public is sure to jump all over Atlanta, the more proven commodity, but this has all the classic makings of a trap game. Remember your C's: Cassel + Charles + Crowd = Chiefs Cover.

The Pick: Kansas City +1

Washington at New Orleans +9.5

By now the Griffin/Newton comparisons are hackneyed and trite, but allow me to indulge one more time.

Cam opened his career on the road, in a dome, against a team that was supposed to put up big offensive numbers (back when the Cardinals actually expected something from Kevin Kolb). He was favored to lose by more than a touchdown (+7.5). He went on to throw for 422 yards, cover the spread, and almost lead his team to an upset victory.

Why, exactly, can't RGIII do the same thing?

Griffin actually has more working in his favor than Newton did. He's got 9.5 points on his side, his opponent is in bounty-sanctioned turmoil, and––most importantly––he's got a much, much, much stingier defense behind him.

Washington was the best 4-12 team in recent memory last season, a season which included two wins over the Super Bowl Champion Giants and a close, seven-point loss to the AFC-Champion Patriots. 

And that was all with Rex Grossman and John Beck under center.

Conventional wisdom says Drew Brees will work out his contract issues and be under center in Week 1, but the Saints will still be without Sean Payton, Jonathan Vilma and their mojo.

And while it's hard to imagine Brees opening the season by losing at home to a rookie, it's also hard to imagine the Saints showing no lingering side effects from a mentally-taxing offseason.

The Skins have opened the past two seasons with victories against quality opponents (the Giants and Cowboys), so they know how to come out of the gates strong. They may not win this game, but it'll be close.

The Pick: Washington +9.5

St. Louis at Detroit -9.5

A host of uncalled for arrests has marred what was supposed to be a great year for the Detroit Lions. But even if they've made the news for all the wrong reasons this spring and summer, it's impossible to overlook the promise they showed last fall and winter.

Finally able to keep Matt Stafford healthy behind center, the Lions won 10 games for the first time since 1995 and made their first postseason appearance since the Charlie Batch-led wild-card team of '99.

Now the Lions must deal with something that hasn't existed in Detroit since the Barry Sanders era: expectations.

Things didn't go quite as well in St. Louis last year. An aberrant Week 8 win over New Orleans and an unwatchable 13-12 win over Cleveland were all that stood between the Rams and winless ignominy.

Having Sam Bradford healthy helps, and the defense is slightly improved with the additions of Cortland Finnegan and Michael Brockers. But the Lions roared out of the gate last season––winning their first five contests by an average score of 14 points––and quick starts appear to be in their DNA.

The Pick: Detroit -9.5

Miami at Houston -6.5

The Dolphins stumbled out of the gate last season (to the tune of 0-7) but took reverence in playing spoiler down the stretch. Matt Moore led them to a a 6-3 finish that included wins over playoff hopefuls such as Buffalo, Oakland and the New York Jets.

Moore got most of the press, as quarterbacks are wont to do, but it was the emergence of Reggie Bush (better late than never, right?) as a legitimate every-down back that pushed them over the edge. Reggie topped 100 yards on the ground in all four of Miami's December games, including a 203-yard outburst in Buffalo.

The Dolphins, however, made some curious decisions this offseason and don't appear ready to capitalize on last season's late momentum.

The Moore/Bush/Marshall combo that proved so successful down the stretch is no longer in tact. Marshall was shipped to Chicago, Moore is poised to lose his job to David Garrard, and Bush, while still the offense's primary weapon, is expected to have his work cut into by second-year back Daniel Thomas.

All this changeover will take time to come together. They would do well to play an easy opponent in Week 1, but alas, they drew the Houston Texans. Just one year removed from their first-ever playoff birth, the Texans feel slighted by Matt Schaub's injury and genuinely believe they were the AFC's best team in 2011.

Look for them to take out their anger on a team whose best receiver is arguably Brian Hartline.

The Pick: Houston -6.5