NBA Free Agency 2012: Predicting Final Landing Spots for Top Available Scorers
The 2012 period of NBA free agency has officially begun, and the league is in a frenzy. From first-day signings to second-day trades, the early hours of free agency have offered the league what they always want: major changes and plenty of drama.
As we continue to work our way through free agency, we'll see names drop like flies. From defensive stoppers to run-the-show point guards, the demand will be high for players at every position.
But how about the guys who win the games—what about the scorers?
As previously outlined, there are plenty of top-tier scoring options available. The question is, where will they go?
All of those answers and more will be provided in the following slides.
15. Steve Novak, UFA
1 of 15Position: Small Forward
Age: 29
Season Averages: 18.9 MPG, 15.95 PER, 8.8 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 2.5 3PM, 47.2% 3PT
What He Offers
Steve Novak is the best three-point shooter in the NBA, and there is no debate about it. Novak finished atop the league with a three-point field goal percentage of 47.2 percent and also ranked third in the NBA with 133 three-point field goals made.
Of the other nine members in the top 10 of three-pointers converted, only one player shot greater than 40 percent from distance. That man was Kyle Korver of the Chicago Bulls, who made 15 less and hit 43.5 percent of those bucks.
While Novak's scoring abilities have very little depth beyond the three-point shot, he is the ultimate weapon to any team. The former Marquette sharpshooter has proven to be unfazed by the bright lights and makes an average of 2.5 three-pointers per game.
Say what you want about his one-dimensional attack, but the man can stroke it.
Landing Spot
In the words of Novak himself, "[I] can re-sign [with the Knicks] without it going towards the cap."
Plain and simple, the New York Knicks will not let the best perimeter scorer in the game sign elsewhere.
14. Jeremy Lin, RFA
2 of 15Position: Point Guard
Age: 23
Season Averages: 26.9 MPG, 19.97 PER, 14.6 PPG, 6.2 APG, 3.1 RPG, 1.6 SPG
What He Offers
You can love him, you can hate him or you can have no opinion at all; you simply cannot deny the fact that Jeremy Lin can ball.
Now that the Dr. Seuss truths are out of the way, let's give credit where credit is due.
Lin is as good as they come in terms of dribble penetration. He's a menace in transition, blows by defenders in the half court and draws fouls like LeBron James. Should the driving lanes be cut off, he has no problem rising up for a smooth jump shot.
While Lin's consistency could improve, the global superstar is only 23 years old. When paired with the fact that he's an outstanding playmaker who creates for himself and others, it's hard to argue his placement on this list.
Landing Spot
Much like Steve Novak, Lin's destination will be directly effected by the recent Bird rights case. With a high-profile name and an inspiring style of play, Lin will fight off the speculation and return to the New York Knicks.
13. Nick Young, UFA
3 of 15Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 27
Season Averages: 12.93 PER, 14.2 PPG, 2.1 RPG, 0.7 SPG, 36.5% 3PT
What He Offers
Nick Young is one of the most inconsistent scorers in the NBA. When on his game, however, Young is very difficult to defend.
While his percentages display the streaky nature of his shooting, Young became the Clippers' best three-point weapon during the 2012 postseason. He had five games with multiple three-point field goals, including three games with at least three.
This included some timely shots in the Clippers' historic, 27-point comeback against the Memphis Grizzlies in Game 1 of their first-round playoff matchup.
Landing Spot
Despite his inconsistency, Young has garnered quite a bit of attention in this young offseason.
"RT @mcten: Other teams to look into Nick Young are New Orleans, Indiana, Boston and Brooklyn, according to Young's agent, Mark Bartelstein
— Ken Berger (@KBergCBS) July 1, 2012"
In all likelihood, Brooklyn will not be able to afford his services. New Orleans is another team whose attention will be shifted elsewhere, as Eric Gordon is its top priority.
This leaves Indiana and Boston, who both could use some size at the 2. Expect the Indiana Pacers to be the team that gives Young a chance.
12. Carl Landry, UFA
4 of 15Position: Power Forward
Age: 28
Season Averages: 24.4 MPG, 18.31 PER, 12.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG, 50.3% FG
What He Offers
Carl Landry has long been one of the better low-post scorers in the game, combining a smooth turn-around jump shot with an ability to score over either shoulder. While undersized, Landry has made it known that height means nothing as he attacks the basket.
With Landry, the biggest hurdle is staying healthy. Missing 25 games in 2012 was just the latest chapter in an injury-plagued career, but that doesn't eliminate him as a viable frontcourt option. With more than a handful of teams in need of a low-post scorer, expect Landry to garner some serious attention.
Landing Spot
According to Mark Murphy of the Boston Herald, Landry is once again a target of the Boston Celtics. Considering he signed a $9 million deal in 2011 and the C's just drafted Jared Sullinger, that possibility can be eliminated.
Expect Landry to end up where he was last season: New Orleans. Anthony Davis' ankle injury has already been a cause for concern, so depth is certainly a necessity.
11. Ersan Ilyasova, UFA
5 of 15Position: Power Forward
Age: 25
Season Averages: 20.55 PER, 13.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 1.2 APG, 0.7 BPG, 45.5% 3PT
What He Offers
Ersan Ilyasova is a dominant rebounder, elite perimeter shooter for his position and a consistent double-double threat.
In 2012, Ilyasova posted nine games with at least 15 rebounds, including a 29-point and 25-rebound outing against the then-New Jersey Nets. The following night, Ilyasova put up 15 points and 15 rebounds against Dwight Howard and the Magic.
Ilyasova also shot 45.5 percent from three-point range, good for second in the NBA. He was a nominee for Most Improved Player of the Year and is likely to continue building on that success as he moves forward in his career.
Landing Spot
After trading for center Samuel Dalembert and drafting power forward John Henson, it appeared the Milwaukee Bucks were ready to move on from unrestricted free agent Ilyasova. According to general manager John Hammond, however, that is not the case:
""We would love to have Ersan back here; we've talked about that," Hammond said. "Ersan is an unrestricted free agent so it's not only our decision. It's not only what we want but what he wants also."
"
Considering Ilyasova is under Bird rights and, in turn, can receive more money from the Bucks than most other teams, just assume that he'll be re-signing. Who is to say that Dalembert is the answer at the 5 and John Henson can't shift over?
10. Jamal Crawford, UFA
6 of 15Position: Guard
Age: 32
Season Averages: 26.9 MPG, 15.80 PER, 13.9 PPG, 3.2 APG, 2.0 RPG, 0.9 SPG
What He Offers
Jamal Crawford is not only one of the craftiest scorers in basketball but he's also one of the best ball-handlers. He's excellent off of the dribble, and he utilizes his size to get into the lane and finish with force and intention.
While Crawford may not be the same athlete he once was, he remains one of the more intelligent scorers in the game. His shot selection is not always the greatest, but he's long been an efficient player whom teams love to have as a part of their roster.
Landing Spot
According to Broderick Turner of the Los Angeles Times, the L.A. Clippers appear to have serious interest in signing Crawford. Turner reports that the team is set to offer Crawford a three-year deal roughly worth $5 million per season.
It's a deal the 32-year-old Crawford will not accept.
Instead, expect Crawford to sign with a dark-horse team in need of a consistent perimeter scoring option: the Minnesota Timberwolves, who have long been interested in the former Michigan Wolverine.
9. Ray Allen, UFA
7 of 15Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 36
Season Averages: 14.83 PER, 14.2 PPG, 3.1 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, 45.3 3PT%
What He Offers
Ray Allen is the all-time greatest three-point shooter and one of the best free-throw shooters, to boot. He's also a former NBA champion and 10-time All-Star whose mere presence will lift a team to new heights.
While his injury-plagued postseason had led to concern over the 36-year-old's longevity, most teams have forgotten about that already. Allen will continue to shoot, play high-energy defense and make a point guard's life easier as he puts on a clinic without the basketball.
Allen remains a top-tier shooting guard whose signing would benefit any of the 30 NBA franchises.
Landing Spot
At 36, the only thing on the mind of an NBA player is winning a championship. That's why any article reporting the Miami Heat's interest in Allen should come with a pen and a contract—shouldn't it?
Allen isn't going to Miami. Even if it does sound crazy, the greatest shooter of all time is heading to the Los Angeles Clippers.
8. Antawn Jamison, UFA
8 of 15Position: Power Forward
Age: 36
Season Averages: 16.17 PER, 17.2 PPG, 6.3 RPG, 2.0 APG, 0.8 SPG, 0.7 BPG
What He Offers
Antawn Jamison may not be a name you expect to see high on a team's wish list, but his resurgence upon joining the Cleveland Cavaliers is beyond encouraging.
Jamison re-emerged as a legitimate scoring threat, posting 17.2 points per game while working beautifully alongside point guard Kyrie Irving. His mid-range jump shot was as polished as it had ever been, while his ability to score in the paint impressed many.
While his rebounding numbers are none too encouraging, Jamison remains a force on the offensive end. The question is, who will he be helping next?
Landing Spot
For the buildup given to Jamison, his destination is likely to underwhelm.
Jamison is going to join the Charlotte Bobcats.
Rick Bonnell of The Charlotte Observer reports that Jamison will be visiting the Bobcats on Thursday to discuss a possible future with the team. Considering Jamison made a name for himself as a star at the University of North Carolina, this deal isn't as far-fetched as it seems.
The Bobcats are in need of a veteran presence in their young court as well as a scoring option from the post. Jamison fits the bill for both of those qualifications and is going to fill both of those roles in 2013.
7. J.R. Smith, UFA
9 of 15Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 26
Season Averages: 27.6 MPG, 15.27 PER, 12.5 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 2.4 APG, 1.5 SPG
What He Offers
J.R. Smith is one of the most inconsistent scorers in the NBA. "Streaky" doesn't begin to describe Smith's game, as he's just as likely to hit 10 three-pointers as he is to go 0-for-10 from distance.
The thing is, Smith is capable of hitting 10 three-pointers. He's also capable of dominating a game in the way that only a superstar could manage. Should he ever find a way to score in a more consistent manner, thus taming his shot selection and improving his focus, Smith could join those very ranks.
After eight years in the league, however, that seems very unlikely. You'll have to take the good with the bad.
Landing Spot
Smith made waves when he declined a $2.4 million player option to remain with the New York Knicks. As ESPN.com reports, however, this simply opens the door for Smith to re-sign for one year and make $5.3 million under early Bird rights.
As Smith's father Earl says, "It's very clear that the money is the biggest factor with him."
The Knicks are interested in re-signing him, while J.R.'s younger brother Chris was recently signed to the Knicks' Summer League team. If we read the signs, it appears J.R. Smith is heading back to the Big Apple to play with the New York Knicks.
6. O.J. Mayo, UFA
10 of 15Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 24
Season Averages: 26.8 MPG, 14.76 PER, 12.6 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 2.6 APG, 1.1 SPG
What He Offers
O.J. Mayo was once an elite scoring prospect who had averaged 18.5 and 17.5 points in consecutive seasons. After Lionel Hollins turned Mayo into a combo guard who took over the role of secondary facilitator, however, those numbers dropped and his shooting percentages fell with them.
In Mayo signing elsewhere, a team would get a player who could lead their team in scoring for years to come. He has 20-points-per-game ability and 25-plus-points-per-game potential, making his signing a no-brainer for any team willing to invest the money.
Mayo remains what he was when he entered the league: a star in the making.
Landing Spot
As expected, the Boston Celtics were interested in signing the free-agent shooting guard. After Mayo made it clear that he would not sign a mid-level exception, however, the Celtics have moved on from the hunt.
This opens the door for a young team to come in and swoop up their potential franchise player. Expect the Phoenix Suns to be that team, as they end their pursuit of a young shooting guard by signing Mayo to a multi-year deal.
5. Jason Terry, UFA
11 of 15Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 34
Season Averages: 15.80 PER, 15.1 PPG, 3.6 APG, 2.4 RPG, 1.2 SPG, 37.8 3PT%
What He Offers
Jason Terry is an elite three-point shooter whose ability to penetrate off the dribble has not been lost. He's still got some bounce to his step and is more than capable of creating his own shot.
To put it simply, Terry has still got it.
For whichever team takes their chances with signing Terry to a deal, they will receive a sharpshooter who can come off of the bench and provide 30 quality minutes or start and offer much of the same. The 2009 Sixth Man of the Year will do it all on both ends, and those contributions shall not go unnoticed.
Landing Spot
With Ray Allen hitting free agency and possibly moving on to new endeavors, the Boston Celtics are planning to try their hand at another elite, veteran three-point shooter with an NBA title: Terry.
Mark Murphy of The Boston Herald reports that the Celtics are no longer after O.J. Mayo and are instead focused on signing Terry to a deal. Considering Terry is open to signing an MLE and the Celtics barely fit the qualifications, that deal is going to get done.
ESPN.com reports that it's nearly hit that stage.
4. Michael Beasley, UFA
12 of 15Position: Forward
Age: 23
Season Averages: 23.1 MPG, 13.11 PER, 11.5 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 1.0 APG, 37.6 3PT%
What He Offers
Michael Beasley was once a superstar in the making. He was expected to elevate the Miami Heat to new levels as he and Dwyane Wade would win the franchise's second title.
While Miami is doing just fine, Beasley is stuck in reverse, as his breakout 2011 season has been lost in the midst of a weak 2012 campaign.
Nevertheless, Beasley has plenty to offer. He's a powerful player who can penetrate and attack the basket or rise up for a mid-range jump shot. While his shot selection could certainly improve, Beasley's versatility and ability to crash the offensive glass should be enough to entice any team into taking a risk on his mercurial personality.
Landing Spot
According to Ken Berger of CBS Sports, the Dallas Mavericks have expressed interest in signing Beasley. With Deron Williams possibly remaining with Brooklyn and Steve Nash rumored elsewhere as well, this may just be the best bet for a team in need of any and everything they can get.
Beasley may find a handful of places that intrigue him, but nothing will be able to match playing alongside Dirk Nowitzki.
3. Lou Williams, UFA
13 of 15Position: Guard
Age: 25
Season Averages: 26.3 MPG, 20.22 PER, 14.9 PPG, 3.5 APG, 2.5 RPG, 0.8 SPG
What He Offers
Lou Williams is one of the most efficient guards at his position.
While many will look at his shaky shooting percentages to define his play, he's always played within the confines of an offensively inept team. This has forced Williams to put up contested shots that very few teams would force him into.
Nevertheless, Williams led the Philadelphia 76ers in scoring during the 2012 season. This is even more significant than it seems, as he came off of the bench for just 26.3 minutes per game.
Williams is a very good ball-handler whose scoring abilities are on par with the best of the best at his position. He's stellar in the clutch and fearless in his attack of the basket, which teams have grown to love in the era of the Derrick Roses and Jeremy Lins.
Landing Spot
The buzz surrounding Williams is that the desire for his services is not coming from just one team. Instead, there is "significant" interest throughout the league in signing Williams to a long-term deal.
Word is, Williams will be looking for a deal similar to that of former teammate Thaddeus Young, who signed a five-year contract worth $43 million. Considering the 76ers may not be able to offer him such a deal, expect Williams to leave where he's always wanted to be.
Williams will go to a new city with a cap-flexible team. Williams is going with the Dallas Mavericks.
2. Eric Gordon, RFA
14 of 15Position: Shooting Guard
Age: 23
Season Averages: 18.56 PER, 22.3 PPG, 4.4 APG, 2.9 RPG, 1.3 SPG
What He Offers
Eric Gordon is a young scorer whose explosiveness and upper body strength make him impossible to defend off the dribble. He's also a much-improved jump shooter who can just as quickly rise up for a J as he can for a dunk in traffic.
If only he could stay on the floor long enough to contribute.
Gordon is as injury-plagued as any player in the game, missing 106 games in just four years in the league. Regardless, that doesn't take away from his ability to score the basketball.
In all likelihood, it won't take away from his major payday, either.
Landing Spot
As expected, the New Orleans Hornets put in their qualifying offer to the shooting guard and restricted free agent. As a result, we can expect the New Orleans Hornets to match any and every offer sent the former Indiana Hoosier's way.
The speculation will be monumental, while the result will be obvious. Gordon is remaining with the New Orleans Hornets.
1. Deron Williams, UFA
15 of 15Position: Point Guard
Age: 28
Season Averages: 20.34 PER, 21.0 PPG, 8.7 APG, 3.3 RPG, 1.2 SPG
What He Offers
Deron Williams is the best player available for a handful of obvious reasons. Not only is he the best facilitator available (with a possible exception to Steve Nash) but he's the best scorer as well.
Just ask the Charlotte Bobcats if they disagree.
Williams has elite court vision that most players dream of reaching. He's a phenomenal ball-handler, a solid perimeter defender and a respected on-court leader. Many believe Williams to be a top 15 player in the league, and his production has certainly warranted the consideration.
Landing Spot
The Brooklyn Nets made the first significant move of the 2012 free-agency period, trading a handful of role players and a protected first-round draft choice for All-Star shooting guard Joe Johnson. According to Chris Broussard of ESPN.com, the next step is already underway as they have begun trade talks with the Orlando Magic for Dwight Howard.
Williams is getting what he's wanted. He is staying with the Brooklyn Nets.









