Predicting the 10 Biggest American League All-Star Snubs

On Monday, Major League Baseball released its final update of the voting totals for the All-Star Game. The voting officially closed on Thursday night, and the starting rosters will be revealed on Sunday.

After that, the complaining will begin.

It's a process that hasn't failed us yet. There are always snubs in the starting lineups, and there are always plenty more snubs to discuss when the reserves are revealed. Alas, putting All-Star teams together is well short of being an exact science.

The worst part is that you can see the snubs coming a mile away. They're like fat dudes running along a set of train tracks.

I'm an American League guy at heart, and I can already tell that there are going to be some problems with Ron Washington's AL squad. The voting totals suggest that the starting lineup is going to be a mess, and there are some solid players out there who appear doomed to be forgotten altogether.

What we're going to do here is take a look at some players who are bound to be snubbed. I've picked out a group of 10 that includes a nice balance between probable starting lineup snubs, reserve snubs and pitching snubs, and ranked them accordingly.

Note: All stats are as of the start of play on Friday, and all stats come courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.

Reserve Snub: Mike Aviles, SS, Boston Red Sox

There's bound to be a lot of controversy surrounding the AL squad's shortstop depth chart this year. The leading vote-getter is going to get a starting nod that he doesn't deserve, and a handful of other shortstops are going to be crossing their fingers for a spot on the bench.

My gut tells me that Mike Aviles is going to be one of the guys left out in the cold, and that ain't right.

Aviles' numbers don't look all that impressive at first glance. He's only hitting .267, and his .287 on-base percentage is the kind of number that gives Bill James headaches. Aviles just doesn't know how to take his walks.

But hey, his nine home runs rank third among AL shortstops, and he actually leads AL shortstops with 43 RBI. 

To boot, the advanced fielding metrics love Aviles. According to FanGraphs, he boasts a 6.6 UZR and a DRS (defensive runs saved) of +15, both very good numbers for a shortstop.

Due to both his offensive and defensive contributions, it's therefore not a huge surprise that Aviles ranks third among AL shortstops with a 1.9 WAR. 

All these things make him deserving of an All-Star nod.

Bigger Reserve Snub: Alejandro De Aza, OF, Chicago White Sox

Ron Washington is going to have plenty of quality outfielders to play with at the All-Star Game. The list of AL outfielders who are having All-Star-caliber seasons is pretty long.

Alejandro De Aza is one of the guys at the top of that list. Unfortunately for him, he has the kind of numbers that don't stand out as being particularly sexy.

De Aza is hitting .298/.368/.414 with 14 stolen bases and 50 runs scored, numbers that make him one of the American League's top leadoff hitters.

The problem is that he's up against a bunch of home run hitters this season, and people tend to notice power numbers before they notice things like stolen bases and runs scored. De Aza is bound to get snubbed so the All-Star team can have guys like Colby Rasmus, Josh Reddick, Josh Willingham, et al.

Meanwhile, it looks like Curtis Granderson is going to end up getting a starting nod. His WAR, according to FanGraphs, is 1.1. De Aza's is 2.3.

No further comment is needed.

Pitching Snub: Scott Atchison, RP, Boston Red Sox

It's pretty hard for non-closers to make the All-Star team. All-Star rosters typically only have space for starting pitchers, closers and maybe one or two setup men if there are some really, really good ones to choose from.

And even then, setup guys who make the grade better have sexy stuff: Hard fastballs, biting sliders and so on.

So I wish Scott Atchison luck making the All-Star team. He's not a starter, a closer or a setup man with sexy stuff, so he's going to need as much luck as he can get.

He has a shot, though. I don't know if you've seen his numbers, but, well, have you seen his numbers?

Atchison has pitched an even 41 innings for the Red Sox this season, second-most among American League relievers behind Robbie Ross. Despite his heavy workload, Atchison is maintaining an ERA well south of 2.00, and he's somehow holding hitters to a .212 batting average.

None of this makes any sense given the general mediocrity of his stuff, but that just goes to show there's more to pitching than lighting up the radar gun and getting swings and misses.

Mr. Atchison is a lot better than he should be. Hats off.

Big Pitching Snub: Tom Wilhelmsen, RP, Seattle Mariners

Slightly below Atchison on the innings-pitched rankings lies Tom Wilhelmsen, the rookie right-hander of the Seattle Mariners. He's pitched 39 innings this season, fourth-most among AL relievers.

The difference between Wilhelmsen and Atchison is that Wilhelmsen is a reliever with sexy stuff. He throws his fastball in the mid 90s, and he can get hitters to swing and miss with a nasty curveball. 

And Wilhelmsen has definitely been getting 'em to swing and miss this season. He's striking out over 11 hitters every nine innings, and his 4.36 strikeout-to-walk ratio is well above-average where relievers are concerned.

Wilhelmsen is bound to get left off the roster anyway because he only has six saves to his name. He does have seven holds too, but from what I can tell, nobody really gives a damn about holds.

Except me, but by now you can probably tell that I love all stats.

Bigger Pitching Snub: Joaquin Benoit, RP, Detroit Tigers

The Detroit Tigers have had to suffer through many disappointments this season. 

Joaquin Benoit hasn't been one of them. In fact, he's been even better than he was last season, which is saying something.

Benoit made 66 appearances last season and compiled a 2.95 ERA with a 9.30 K/9. So far this year, he's made 35 appearances and compiled a 1.80 ERA with a K/9 of 11.57. Opponents are hitting just .214 against him.

And yes, he's tied for the American League lead with 18 holds. That means he's awesome in my book.

If you like WAR better, Benoit checks out pretty well there too. Per FanGraphs, his WAR is 1.2, which ranks pretty highly among AL relievers.

In fact, the only man with a higher WAR than Benoit is Joe Nathan who has 18 saves and an otherworldly 10.50 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

If Benoit is in his neck of the woods statistically, he must be pretty good.

Biggest Pitching Snub: Jason Hammel, SP, Baltimore Orioles

Justin Verlander looks like a lock to start the All-Star Game for the American League. Beyond him, the AL squad is sure to feature some high-quality starting pitchers.

I just have this bad feeling that Jason Hammel isn't going to be one of them. 

Hammel has posted solid numbers this season. He's 8-3 through 15 starts with a 3.29 ERA, and he has a solid 8.61 K/9. Hitters are only hitting .225 off him.

Hammel's problem is twofold.

First, his numbers are good, but not great, and that's a problem in a year where so many AL pitchers boast flashy numbers.

Second, he pitches for the Orioles, which kinda makes him guilty by association.

I'm rooting for Hammel to make it in, but I don't like his chances.

Starting Lineup Snub: Joe Mauer, C, Minnesota Twins

According to the latest voting totals, Mike Napoli is poised to be the American League's starting catcher. He had over three million votes as of Monday. No other AL catcher had over two million.

Joe Mauer was a distant second in the voting, but he's the guy who should be starting at catcher for the American League this season.

It feels strange to be talking about Mauer in a positive light, as he's just not the same player he was a couple years ago when he won the AL MVP award. But Mauer is quietly having a healthy, productive season for the Twins.

Through 66 games, about half of which have seen him start at catcher, Mauer is hitting .321/.414/.433. He ranks fifth in the American League in batting average and first in on-base percentage.

Mauer has been particularly hot lately, as he's hitting .393/.433/.508 in June. Numbers like those put him in Mike Trout's stratosphere of awesomeness.

His power may be long gone, but Mauer can still hit a baseball as well as any man in the American League. And among catchers, his hitting talents are unparalleled this season.

Big Starting Lineup Snub: Mike Moustakas, 3B, Kansas City Royals

The last voting totals revealed a pretty tight race going on between Adrian Beltre and Miguel Cabrera for the starting third base spot in the AL All-Star lineup.

The guy who should get the start is way down on the list. Unfortunately, people just aren't familiar with the impressive baseball stylings of Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas.

Moustakas has done it all for the Royals this season. He's hitting .277/.346/.496 with 13 home runs and 38 RBI. His .842 OPS ranks third among AL third basemen behind Cabrera and Beltre, as does his .360 wOBA (weighted on-base average). Moustakas isn't far behind either one of them in either category.

What gives Moustakas the edge over Beltre and Cabrera is his defense. Cabrera is a lousy defensive player. Beltre is a good defensive player. Thus far, Moustakas has been an excellent defensive player. Per FanGraphs, his UZR checks in at 6.5 and his DRS checks in at +7.

The total package gives Moustakas a WAR of 2.8, tops among AL third basemen.

Am I right, Royals fans?

Bigger Starting Lineup Snub: Elvis Andrus, SS, Texas Rangers

Not surprisingly, Derek Jeter was leading the voting at shortstop at last check. He had nearly two million more votes than Elvis Andrus.

It should be the other way around.

Yes, Jeter was hitting over .400 for a while there, but that was a long time ago. Over his last 47 games, Jeter has hit .248/.303/.297, all while playing his usual facepalm-inducing defense.

I love Jeter too, you guys, but he doesn't deserve to start in the All-Star Game.

Andrus does. He's having a solid year at the plate, batting .303/.381/.408 with 15 stolen bases and 49 runs scored. He's also playing slightly above-average defense.

Granted, his numbers really don't stand out as being particularly flashy, but that's the beauty of it. Nothing jumps off the page, but Andrus is performing well in every key area of the game. He's a complete player.

Before you Jeter nuts start raving about Jeter's batting average, consider this: Andrus has him beat in wOBA by a considerable margin. 

In plain English, that means Andrus is actually having a better offensive year than Jeter.

Biggest Starting Lineup Snub: Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

I don't care that Mike Trout has only been in the big leagues since late April.

And no, I don't care that his name didn't appear among the American League outfield options on the All-Star ballot.

And no, I don't care that Josh Hamilton, Jose Bautista, Curtis Granderson and Adam Jones are all pretty good players too.

None of this matters. All I know is that Mike Trout deserves to start in the freakin' All-Star Game for the freakin' American League.

He's hitting .345/.402/.543 with eight home runs and 21 stolen bases, and he's already established himself as one of the league's best defensive outfielders. 

I mean, have you seen that catch he made in Baltimore the other night?

I understand that Trout is not going to start in the All-Star Game and that there's nothing Washington can do about it, but that doesn't mean I have to like it.

Who's with me?

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