Austin Rivers: Why Duke Shooting Guard Is Not Worth a Lottery Pick
Everyone has an opinion on Austin Rivers. Some experts see him as the next great scoring guard, while others view him as the most toxic player in the draft.
Varying opinions exist among NBA executives as well. ESPN’s Chad Ford writes, “I know that several teams have him ranked in the top 10 on their big boards. I know several others that have him in the second round.”
Rivers is certainly talented, but his biggest drawback his need to dominate the ball.
At Duke this past season, he took 402 shots—by far the most on the team. He shot just 43.3 percent from the field and just 36.5 percent from behind the three-point line. He also averaged slightly more turnovers (2.3) than assists (2.1).
His inefficient play is indicative of his mentality. He shoots too much and passes far to little.
Duke head coach Mike Krzyzewski said, via HoopsWorld.com, “He is an alpha dog. I think he will succeed in the NBA because of that. He believes he’s going to be great. I’d rather have a guy like that than a guy who doesn’t believe in himself."
Krzyzewski added that Rivers is lacking as a defender and a rebounder later in the article.
Rivers believes that he can be the next great scoring 2-guard in the NBA, but he does not have the physical tools to be as dominant as players like Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady or Dwyane Wade.
Both Bryant and McGrady are taller and longer than Rivers, who is 6’5” with a 6’7.25” wingspan, according to the NBA combine’s official measurements.
Wade and Rivers are similar in height, but the Miami Heat guard can get to the rim against any player in the NBA, and Rivers does not possess that same skill.
Rivers is not a player with unlimited talent. He has a pretty jump shot and a fantastic crossover move. However, he is not the elite athlete that other dominant 2-guards are.
He has a definite ceiling and he will never be more than a 20-point-per-game scorer. It will also take him time to get to the point in his career where he can be that productive.
In order to be effective on a winning team, he must also pass, rebound and defend. These are things he does not do well, and he will have to eat a large slice of humble pie upon entering the NBA, or he will quickly get buried on the bench.
If Rivers can accept a reduced role and work to hone his craft, he may one day be a solid starter. However, the flashes of arrogance and impatience that characterized his brief Duke career suggest that he will struggle with this adjustment.
Ultimately, Rivers is too big of a risk to take in lottery as he will likely be a player similar to Jamal Crawford who can be a productive scorer off the bench.
