Spain vs. Ireland: Four-Goal Win Puts Spaniards in Driver's Seat in Group C
Spanish fans were likely a little worried after their team's 1-1 draw with Italy to start Euro 2012, but a 4-0 win over Ireland on Thursday should put any concerns to rest.
And that's what was so important about this win. Not the fact that Spain beat Ireland—everyone knew that was going to happen—but that they won by four goals.
If Spain ties Croatia in a game that they are expected to win, then the Spanish will now automatically advance.
OK, stay with me here because things are going to get a little confusing.
Spain Loses to Croatia
Assuming Italy beats Ireland, then Spain would be eliminated. But let's be honest, this isn't happening.
Spain Draws with Croatia 0-0
Again, assuming Italy beats Ireland, all three teams would finish with five points. The first tiebreaker, which is head-to-head between the teams involved, wouldn't change anything and neither would goal differential. The next tiebreaker would be goals scored in matches between the teams involved.
In this situation, Italy wins the group (two goals compared to Spain and Croatia's one), and Spain and Croatia go to the next tiebreaker, which would be goal differential against Ireland.
This is what makes Thursday's win so important for the Spanish. The Croatians beat Ireland by only two goals (3-1) so Spain would advance with a plus-four differential.
Spain Draws with Croatia 1-1 or higher
If Spain draws 1-1 with Croatia, they will likely win the group. All three squads will go to the tiebreaker of goal-differential against Ireland.
We've already noted Spain has Croatia beat in that category, and they'll beat Italy unless Azzurri knock off Ireland by five goals or more (or 5-1 or any higher-scoring four-goal win).
Again, this is why Spain's drubbing of Ireland was so important on Thursday.
Spain Beats Croatia
They win the group with seven points.
All of those other scenarios are pretty much worst-case for the Spanish.
When it comes down to it, if Fernando Torres plays like he did against Ireland and Spain has a true striker, they are close to unbeatable.
David Silva and Cesc Fabregas added brilliant goals, and while Ireland isn't Croatia, it would be a shock to see the Croatians do anything but lose against Spain.
In essence, Spain looked in top form and won't lose against Croatia. A tie of any kind advances the Spanish and an all-but-guaranteed victory wins them the group.
Yeah, I'd call that the driver's seat.
