US Open Golf Predictions 2012: Why Underdog Is Destined

As much as everyone would like to see Tiger Woods, Phil Mickelson, Rory McIlroy,  Luke Donald or even Rickie Fowler lift the US Open trophy at the end of the day on Sunday, it’s unlikely. When it comes to outcomes at golf courses, history is usually, but not always, right.

Those who study past US Opens know that The Olympic Club has a tendency to dethrown the hero, unseat the favorite, dash the hopes of the galleries and golfers alike.  Maybe it’s the sloping fairways or the small greens or the cool air, or the fog, or wearing too many sweaters or the June gloom, but the guy you want most to win at Olympic has never come through.  Take a look at what has happened there.

In 1955, it looked like Ben Hogan would capture his fifth US Open title, although many in Fort Worth, TX, consider his Hale America Open victory in 1942 as an actual US Open title.  In ’55, Hogan was in the clubhouse ahead of everyone else.  Jack Fleck, still on the golf course, birdied the 16^th and 18^th to tie Hogan.  In the 18-hole playoff, Fleck was victorious much to everyone’s surprise, except Fleck’s.  What most people have failed to mention is that Hogan was 43 at the time, and by that stage of his career, competed infrequently.  For him to be in the playoff was probably a significant achievement.  

The 1955 US Open was the first Arnold Palmer, the 1954 Amateur Champ, made a US Open cut.  Eleven years later, in 1966, he found himself back at Olympic with a chance to win the tournament.  After the first nine holes of the final round, Arnold Palmer was ahead of the field by seven shots. His nearest pursuer was Billy Casper.   Then, beginning at the 10^th hole, the unthinkable happened. Palmer lost a stroke at the 10th and 13^th.  However, he still had a five stroke lead with four to play.  In most situations, that would have been insurmountable. 

Casper caught fire and shot 32 on the back while Palmer continued to make mistakes and posted a 39. Palmer’s advantage was totally wiped out. They were tied at the end of play.

The next day, there was an 18-hole playoff, and again Palmer led through the front nine.  He was two strokes ahead of Casper at the turn, but the back nine was his undoing for the second day in a row.  He lost six strokes to Casper on the final nine, and posted a 73 to Casper’s 69. 

Fast forward to 1987.  Tom Watson, who won the US Open at Pebble Beach in 1982, seemed poised to capture his second title in the country’s oldest major.  He had a one shot lead over Scott Simpson and Keith Clearwater after three rounds.  Though Watson struggled early in the final round, he birdied eight and nine to remain ahead by one. 

Simpson, playing steadily, edged into the lead with a 30-foot birdie putt at the par three 15^th.  Watson tied him, but when Simpson surged ahead with a birdie at the par five 16^th, Watson missed a two-footer for birdie to match him.  At the 17^th, Simpson got up and down with a 70-foot bunker shot to save par.  Watson ran out of holes and Scott Simpson won the 1987 US Open.   

In the most recently held US Open at Olympic, 1998, Tiger Woods was in the field, a year after his dominating Masters victory in 1997.  Although he powered through Augusta National’s fairways, he had not repeated in 1998 and had not won another major at that point in his career.  Woods would finish 18^th, and the headlines that week belonged to Payne Stewart, at least for the first three rounds. 

Stewart had won a PGA Championship in 1989 and the US Open in 1991.  He was the only player under par after 54 holes.  However, he could not maintain his level of play on Sunday and eventually posted a four-over par 74 in the final round.   

Lee Janzen, who was on the course ahead of Stewart, experienced a combination of good luck and good play.  He was seven shots back of Stewart, and initially, it did not look as though he would have any chance of overtaking him. 

Janzen even lost a ball in a tree on the fifth hole, and headed back to the tee to replay his tee shot.  The ball serendipitously fell out of the branches before he could retee, and it landed in the rough. Janzen went on to chip in there for par. It seemed to be the turning point.  Finally, at the 14^th, he tied for the lead. From there he parred in, posting a 68, 280.

Stewart then had to match Janzen’s and fell short by one shot.

So if history is right, it’s going to be an underdog, a lesser known or at least someone you’d not expect who will triumph at Olympic Club. And if that doesn’t happen, maybe the jinx of The Olympic Club is finally over.