Notre Dame Football: Why the Irish Will Be Better Than You Think in 2012

I predicted Notre Dame to go 10-2 in each of Brian Kelly’s first two seasons. Was I that far off? Well, a 15-9 regular season record would probably tell you that I was. However, the Irish were clearly beaten in only four of those losses (Stanford and Navy in 2010, USC and Stanford in 2011).

Two losses to Michigan saw leads slip away in the final 30 seconds. It took a fake field goal (and a slow whistle on the play clock) for Michigan State to stun Notre Dame in 2010. An interception in the end zone against Tulsa six weeks later when a field goal would have won the game was maybe the biggest head-scratcher. Five turnovers in last season’s opener put the Irish too far behind the eight ball against USF to mount a comeback.

My point? 15-9 could easily have been 20-4, and Notre Dame could have spent the holidays in New Orleans and Phoenix instead of El Paso and Orlando. In a 12-game schedule, there is a fine line between a great season and a mediocre season.

That’s what makes college football the greatest sport in the world.

Traditionally, Notre Dame and high expectations have not meshed. A preseason No. 2  ranking in 2006 declined to a final ranking outside of the Top 15 after blowout losses to Michigan, USC and LSU. A No. 19 start in 2003 turned into 5-7. The Irish also began as No. 2 in 1994. Four months later, they were 6-5-1.

Conversely, Notre Dame’s best seasons in the past 20 years have come with minimal expectations. The Irish couldn’t possibly replace Rick Mirer, Jerome Bettis and Reggie Brooks in 1993, could they? Notre Dame went 11-1.

Tyrone Willingham’s first Notre Dame team didn’t have a quarterback—they entered November ranked No. 3 in the nation.

Four road games in their first five would surely doom the 2005 Irish. That team ended up one memorable fourth-down play from playing for the national title.

Heading into 2012, the Irish will likely be a fringe Top 25 team. They may sneak in the bottom of the polls when they are released in August, or they may land just outside. Either way, that should suit Notre Dame fans just fine based on recent history.

No team is more polarizing in college football, and perhaps in sports, than Notre Dame. With that designation comes overreaction. When they’re good, they’re the greatest thing since sliced bread. When they’re struggling, they might as well drop down to the FCS and sign a television contract with Oprah Winfrey’s network.

It’s not that black and white.

Last year, Notre Dame won eight regular season games for the first time in five years. They dominated a Big Ten division champion and led a BCS-bowl winner by 17 points in the fourth quarter on the road.

A complete overhaul isn’t necessary. Sure, the Irish lost some key players, but that happens to every team in college football. Even without Michael Floyd, Jonas Gray and Aaron Lynch, this is the most well rounded roster Notre Dame has had since Lou Holtz was picking grass on the Notre Dame Stadium sideline.

I reserve my right to change my mind between now and Sept. 1, but I think Notre Dame surprises some folks this season and gets to 9 wins in the regular season.

The Irish will split their four big games (Michigan, Michigan State, Oklahoma, USC) and stumble only once in their other eight contests. As far as which of those eight is the loss, the BYU game seems like a spot where Notre Dame could be vulnerable. Showdowns with Stanford and Oklahoma sandwich the visit from a very experienced Cougars team, which is no stranger to upsetting the Irish after having done so in 1994 and 2004.

Where that lands the Irish in the bowl picture is uncertain. Even with a tough schedule, a BCS bowl with a 9-3 record is a major longshot. Due to a lack of bowl agreements, they could end up a double-digit favorite against a 6-6 ACC team or Big 12 team in one of those bowls that changes names at least every other year.

That wouldn’t be the end of the world. Notre Dame certainly won’t be “unproven” come December after the schedule they’re about to face this fall. A 10th win would be a milestone number after a down period over the past half decade. Unfortunately, it would then have expectations sky-high heading in 2013.

We know how that story typically ends in South Bend.

Call it a gut feeling. I believe in Brian Kelly. 2011 did not go as he nor any Notre Dame fan envisioned that it would, but the same can be said for Bob Stoops and Oklahoma. Now, the Sooners, who host the Irish in late October, are considered one of the national-title favorites once again.

While 9-3 might not have fans ready to crown Kelly the next great Irish coach, it would go a long way towards the ultimate goal of making Notre Dame a perennial BCS bowl (or playoff) contender.

Will Everett Golson and Bennett Jackson be the next Kevin McDougal and Bobby Taylor or the next Carlyle Holiday and Shane Walton and rise from relative to obscurity to lead the Irish? We’ve seen it before.

Because of that, the limb I’m standing on feels surprisingly stable.