Fantasy Football 2012: Seasonal Projections for Catches Among Wide Receivers

Jay Clemons

Jun 8, 2012

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has released its seasonal projections for the 2012 NFL season.

These 30 wide receivers, based solely on AccuScore projections, will catch at least 60 balls from Weeks 1-17:

1. Andre Johnson, Texans—94
2. Roddy White, Falcons—93
3. Calvin Johnson, Lions—90
4. Marques Colston, Saints—86
5. Reggie Wayne, Colts—86
6. Brandon Marshall, Bears—85
7. Hakeem Nicks, Giants—81
8. A.J. Green, Bengals—81
9. Danny Amendola, Rams—80
10. Victor Cruz, Giants—78
11. Wes Welker, Patriots—76
12. Greg Jennings, Packers—76
13. Steve Smith, Panthers—74
14. Mike Wallace, Steelers—73
15. Miles Austin, Cowboys—73

Breakdown

Without a doubt, AccuScore's projections for receptions are on the conservative side. How else to explain Wes Welker (76) and Larry Fitzgerald combining for just 147 catches this season? However, let's give credit in one regard: In 2011, only 31 wide receivers caught 60 or more balls; and AccuScore's projections are merely a reflection of that factoid.
As stated above, it's highly unlikely that a healthy Welker (122 catches, 1,573 yards, 9 TDs last year) would catch only 76 passes, regardless of how loaded the Patriots are in the passing game (Brandon Lloyd, Deion Branch, Rob Gronkowski, Aaron Hernandez). Despite his limited physical gifts, Welker has earned the right to be penciled in for 96 catches every season. It's the whole rationale behind his high pre-draft value in Points Per Reception leagues.
Roddy White finished with 100 catches, 1,296 yards and eight touchdowns last year—arguably the second-greatest fantasy season of his career. But he also had a 17-game streak of nine or less catches from 2010-11, the type of quirky, face-cringing run that gives one pause when conceiving top-five rankings.
I'll buy Andre Johnson for a per-game average of 5.9 catches, and here's why: In his five healthiest games last year (Weeks 1-3/Houston's two playoff games), Johnson drew 56 targets and caught 34 balls for 517 yards...with per-game averages of 11.1 targets, 6.9 receptions and 103.4 yards. Bottom line: I hold no grudge toward the many doubters who cite Johnson as an injury or age risk (he's 30 now); just don't be surprised when he finishes the season as a top-five receiver.
I won't buy Danny Amendola for 80 catches this year, not because of his small stature or injury track record...but because of the Rams' jumbled mess at the receiver position. Have you looked at the club's depth chart lately? From a receiving yards standpoint, you could draw the names of Amendola, Danario Alexander, Brandon Gibson, Brian Quick, Steve Smith, Greg Salas out of a hat...and I likely wouldn't dispute the order of the drawing, 1 through 6. Ceiling-wise, I have the highest hopes for Alexander (3 catches, 122 yards, 1 TD in Week 2 last year) and the aptly named rookie Quick.

TOP NEWS

16. Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals—71
17. Steve Johnson, Bills—71
18. Julio Jones, Falcons—71
19. Jeremy Maclin, Eagles—70
20. Percy Harvin, Vikings—70
21. Demaryius Thomas, Broncos—67
22. Jordy Nelson, Packers—66
23. Austin Collie, Colts—66
24. Pierre Garcon, Redskins—66
25. Dwayne Bowe, Chiefs—62
26. Antonio Brown, Steelers—61
27. Kenny Britt, Titans—61
28. Davone Bess, Dolphins—60
29. Dez Bryant, Cowboys—60
30. Vincent Jackson, Buccaneers—60

Breakdown

While driving around last Sunday morning, I was taken aback by Sirius NFL Radio's Randy Cross saying that new Broncos QB Peyton Manning "has never had a receiver like Demaryius Thomas," a credit to Thomas's size and speed more than a putdown onto Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne (from the Colts days). Still, Cross painted the picture that Thomas (32 catches, 551 yards, 4 TDs last year) was on the verge of becoming a top-10 wideout, now that Denver has grabbed Manning over Tim Tebow at quarterback. That aside, 67 catches seems like a reasonable, if not ambitious figure for the third-year receiver.
If I didn't track NFL stats for a living, I'd probably be shocked by AccuScore's 60-catch projection for Vincent Jackson. But in V-Jax's last three full seasons, he's averaging only 62.3 receptions. (Thankfully, he averaged 8.1 TDs in that stretch for 2008-09 and 2011.)
Larry Fitzgerald has a No. 2 ranking in my latest standard-scoring survey; so obviously, I'm shooting higher than 16th place in receptions. My seasonal targets: 92 catches, 1,338 yards and 11 TDs.
Aside from the predictable plunge in touchdowns (15 to five), Dwayne Bowe actually had better numbers last year than his All-Pro campaign of 2010. This bodes well for the upcoming season, assuming Matt Cassel and Jamaal Charles can stay on the field—and Brady Quinn, Ricky Stanzi and the ghost of Tyler Palko stay off it. Targets: 83 catches, 1,164 yards, nine TDs.