UFC on FX 3: B/R MMA Staff Predictions

Dan HiergesellJun 7, 2018

This Friday will offer yet another stacked UFC card on the FX network.

Demetrious "Mighty Mouse" Johnson squares off for the second time against Ian McCall in the main event to see who moves on to face Joseph Benavidez for the UFC Flyweight Championship.

Their first bout offered much controversy, meaning this grudge match could offer a defining finish for either fighter.

In the co-main event we have Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman, two hungry up-and-coming welterweights looking to continue their winning ways and make a name for themselves within a crowded division.

But that's not the only dynamic welterweight showdown on this card, as Mike Pyle battles Josh Neer, a heavy-handed bout that should surely end via KO or submission.

Last but not least, we have Eddie Wineland vs. Scott Jorgensen, two former WEC title contenders looking to prolong their success under the UFC banner. A decisive win for either man would seemingly carry future championship implications.

Predicting Friday's action are the incomparable B/R MMA Featured Columnists John Heinis, Matt Juul and myself, Dan Hiergesell.

Peep the ensuing breakdowns to compare your own predictions. Enjoy.

Eddie Wineland vs. Scott Jorgensen

1 of 5

Eddie Wineland: 18-8-1 (9 KO); Two-time WEC KO of the Night winner

Scott Jorgensen: 13-5 (4 SUB); Two-time WEC Fight of the Night winner

John Heinis

This bout will determine who is stuck as the gatekeeper at 135 pounds. Scott "Young Guns" Jorgensen is 2-2 in his past four fights, but he can be forgiven for losing decisions to Dominick Cruz and Renan Barao.

On the other hand, Wineland has lost back-to-back fights to Team Alpha Male standouts Urijah Faber and Joseph Benavidez. Still, being a former WEC bantamweight champion and amassing a 5-2 record under the brand, I doubt Wineland gets cut even with a loss here.

Will Wineland come up short again, though? I think he will.

Jorgensen, a former Division I wrestler and a purple belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, is the better grappler here by a long shot, and he has enough of a chin to eat some heavy strikes to get inside if he has to.

Wineland will take another one-sided beating and perhaps flirt with the idea of dropping to flyweight (though I doubt he wants any part of Benavidez again).

Eddie Wineland via unanimous decision

Dan Hiergesell

How this is the fourth fight on the card baffles me.

Eddie Wineland and Scott Jorgensen were at separate times considered the second-best bantamweight on the planet, so to see them finally meeting in the UFC is simply awesome.

With that said, I think the action inside the cage will truly live up to the hype.

Both guys are excellent wrestlers, more specifically Jorgensen, so it's likely that they'll cancel each other out and test the waters on their feet.

And considering both fighters possess a KO victory over Ken Stone, as well as Jorgensen being able to stand with Renan Barao and Wineland with Joseph Benavidez, this could be a barn burner.

But considering Wineland has more to lose after dropping two consecutive UFC fights, albeit to Benavidez and Urijah Faber, I'm going with him.

Eddie Wineland via unanimous decision

Matt Juul

Scott Jorgensen is coming off his first loss in the UFC, a lopsided unanimous decision loss to top-rated bantamweight Renan Barao.

Eddie Wineland is recovering from injuries as well as back-to-back losses to Team Alpha Male products Joseph Benavidez and Urijah Faber.

Jorgensen is a tough matchup and will be a big test for Wineland. If Wineland suffers a third straight loss to another highly-ranked 135er, he maybe on his way to gatekeeper status, or even worse, out the door.

Scott Jorgensen via unanimous decision

Mike Pyle vs. Josh Neer

2 of 5

Mike Pyle: 22-8-1 (16 SUB)

Josh Neer: 33-10-1 (17 KO); Two-time Fight of the Night winner

John Heinis

Two wily veteran welterweights clash here in what should be a very entertaining scrap. Josh "The Dentist" Neer has quietly won six in a row, though the only opponent most fans would recognize is his most recent victim, Duane Ludwig.

Meanwhile, Mike "Quicksand" Pyle has won four of his past five, with the sole defeat coming at the hand of ever-rising prospect Rory "Ares" MacDonald at UFC 133.

This fight has entertaining grappling match written all over it, as both men have a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu and have combined for a whopping 28 submission wins in their careers.

Neither guy is the crispest striker, but Pyle is more technical while Neer has more power in his hands. At the end of the day, this one will be well worth 15 minutes of your time, and it could be argued either way who the true winner is.

Josh Neer via split decision

Dan Hiergesell

Both Mike Pyle and Josh Neer know how to finish fights.

Their combined 33 finishes suggest that their upcoming showdown this Friday won't last into the third round.

Now, while Pyle comes off as the submission expert and Neer the KO artist, both welterweights have the ability to pull off their opponent's strong suit.

With that said, despite having a distinct reach advantage, I don't believe the 36-year-old Pyle will be able to get past the powerful hands and solid chin of the 29-year-old Neer.

If it goes to the ground, then Pyle may have a shot at sinking in an armbar or choke, but don't count on it, the guy has only secured one takedown over his last three fights.

Josh Neer via second-round TKO

Matt Juul

Surging welterweight veteran Josh Neer has found a rejuvenation in his UFC career in his latest go-around with the promotion.

Currently riding a six-fight win streak, including back-to-back finishes in his latest two UFC outings, Neer is on a serious hot streak.

Mike Pyle is also coming off of a successful recent outing against Ricardo Funch at UFC 142, finishing Funch in the first round via TKO.

A hard-nosed veteran that has faced everyone from Quinton "Rampage" Jackson to Jake Shields, this evenly matched bout will surely be an exciting matchup.

Josh Neer via split decision

Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman

3 of 5

Erick Silva: 13-2 (7 SUB)

Charlie Brenneman: 15-3 (5 KO)

John Heinis

Many believe that Brazilian prospect Erick Silva has won six fights in a row, including a 2-0 run in the Octagon. However, the bottom line is that Silva "lost" to Carlo Prater at UFC 142. If you missed the fight, Silva looked like he scored a quick (as in didn't even break a sweat) win, but he ended up being disqualified for strikes to the back of the head.

While rules are rules, that match falls in the same category as Matt Hamill's "victory" over Jon "Bones" Jones.

The 27-year-old has his black belt in both BJJ and Judo and has a slick striking game to go along with it, so Charlie "The Spaniard" Brenneman has his work cut out for him in this one.

Brenneman is 3-2 in his past five fights, getting knocked out by Johny Hendricks and Anthony Johnson (yes, that Anthony Johnson) during that span. However, he also pulled off a nice upset over Rick Story as a last-minute replacement for Nate Marquardt in June of last year.

The AMA Fight Club product brings a relentless grappling game to the table, being a former wrestler for Lock Haven University who is earning a his purple belt in jiu-jitsu under Jamie Cruz.

However, we have seen that Brenneman doesn't have the best chin or world-class stand-up skills, so he doesn't have much of a chance here if he can't get this fight to the ground. Even then, he is still at a disadvantage on paper.

Silva will pull off another impressive win here and prove that the hype is real.

Erick Silva via second-round TKO

Dan Hiergesell

This is quite an interesting fight.

Erick Silva and Charlie Brenneman are both on the fence at 170 lbs.

The welterweight division is absolutely stacked, and both guys aren't going to stay afloat without a victory this Friday on FX.

Initially, it seems as if Silva has an advantage, considering his standup is much better and he trains with Anderson Silva. But Brenneman's excellent wrestling skills and takedown abilities could keep his opponent at bay.

With that said, it's pretty obvious what kind of fight this is going to be. Silva is going to try to stand and kickbox Brenneman, while Brenneman will try to bring the fight to his own domain, the ground.

I'd usually pick the wrestler, but this time around, considering the last time Brenneman fought a superior striker in Anthony Johnson he got knocked out, I'm taking Silva somewhere after the first round.

Erick Silva via third-round TKO

Matt Juul

Highly-touted Brazilian welterweight prospect Erick Silva has a virtually unblemished record and is a rising star in the division.

In his last outing, Silva suffered a disqualification loss because of illegal strikes to the back of Carlo Prater's head at UFC 142.

His opponent, veteran Charlie Brenneman, has faltered against higher-ranked welterweights and may be the gatekeeper in this situation, a litmus test for the rising star that is Silva.

With Silva's penchant for finishing opponents, this well-rounded emerging threat will make quick work of Brenneman.

Erick Silva via second-round TKO

TOP NEWS

Bleacher Report1w

Bleacher Report1w

Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian McCall

4 of 5

Demetrious Johnson: 14-2-1 (6 SUB); One-time Fight of the Night winner

Ian McCall: 11-2-1 (4 KO); One-time Fight of the Night winner

John Heinis

"Mighty Mouse" and "Uncle Creepy" square off for the second time after their clash in March led to inconclusive results. McCall furiously walked out of the cage when Johnson got his hand raised that night, but Dana White later said that the judges made a mistake and the bout was actually scored a majority draw.

McCall clearly landed the heavier shots, scored more takedowns and had more control on the ground, so how Johnson got another gift from the judges is beyond me (remember the Miguel Torres fight?).

Still, Johnson will be a perennial contender at 125 pounds and McCall has no reason to take him lightly. Mighty Mouse brings great wrestling, slick submissions and incredibly fast hands to the Octagon.

However, McCall certainly has the heavier hands, based on their first meeting, and definitely has the superior jiu-jitsu. Additionally, while no one at flyweight has a bad gas tank, if you had to pick, most people would agree Uncle Creepy has the cardio advantage.

I expect to see McCall finish what he started and earn himself a showdown with Joseph Benavidez to crown the UFC's first flyweight champion in franchise history.

Ian McCall via unanimous decision (29-28)

Dan Hiergesell

If you thought their first fight was entertaining, get ready to see one of the best fights of the year.

Demetrious Johnson vs. Ian McCall II is going to be off the chain.

Both guys are very hungry after producing a draw the first time around, albeit a controversial one at that, so don't expect a lot of feeling-out in the early minutes.

The winner, assuming this fight doesn't end in another draw, will go on to face Joseph Benavidez in the flyweight tournament finale to determine the first ever UFC flyweight champion.

That's some serious motivation.

While I respect Johnson and applaud his performance in their first fight, I truly think McCall is going to finish what the judges didn't seem to think he started.

As the slightly bigger fighter, evident by four takedowns against Johnson last time, McCall should be able to bring this fight to the canvas and implement some good old-fashioned ground and pound.

Unless Johnson can keep it standing and use his quickness to weave in and out of the pocket, "Uncle Creepy" should be on the fast track to his first UFC title fight.

Ian McCall via fourth-round TKO

Matt Juul

In their first go-around, a controversial majority draw caused a minor setback in the opening round of the UFC's flyweight tournament.

Many fans thought that Ian McCall had defeated Demetrious Johnson, who was mistakenly announced the winner at first.

Now that these two top 125-pounders have a chance to settle the score, expect a much more focused version of each fighter.

McCall may have cost himself the win in their first matchup by showboating in the final frame, so don't expect "Uncle Creepy" to make that mistake again.

In the end, McCall's superior wrestling and better top game will give him the win.

Ian McCall via unanimous decision