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NBA Playoffs 2012: Boston Celtics, Miami Heat Even in More Than Just Games

Abacus RevealsJun 7, 2018

The Eastern Conference finals could not possibly be any closer. The Miami Heat and the Boston Celtics are deadlocked at two games apiece, each team successfully defending its home court.

But that only begins to tell this story of parity.

For example, through the first four games, both teams have made exactly 145 field goals. Each squad is shooting field goals at a higher percentage, securing offensive rebounds at a higher percentage and committing turnovers at a lower percentage than during the first two playoff rounds. Also, neither has shot free throws particularly well.

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So many of the numbers are just staggeringly similar.

The Heat have notched three more foul shots, three more treys, four more rebounds—though Boston has a 41-39 advantage on the offensive glass—and four more turnovers overall.

Miami has converted (that is, scored a field goal or earned foul shots) 199 of its 374 possessions, a .532 percentage.  The Celtics have 191 converted possessions in 371 tries (.515).

But when adjusted for shooting, this edge in efficiency shrinks to .516-.512, courtesy of Miami’s 40 missed free throws (compared to 25 for Boston).

Not surprisingly, each team has shot and rebounded more proficiently at home than away. Oddly, the Celtics were rather sloppy with the ball in their two Garden triumphs (27 turnovers) after having been extraordinarily sticky-fingered with a mere 16 miscues in Miami.

Boston’s adjusted efficiency at home (.513) and away (.511) is virtually identical.  On the other hand, Miami played to 56 percent adjusted efficiency in their two home victories, 47 percent in Beantown.

Does a consistent level of performance tend to sustain momentum? Does a return home inspire double-digits in the offensive rebounding column and 30 more free throws? Does Chris Bosh provide a solution or some rough edges?

Numbers abound, but they seem to provide no answers. That’s why they play the games, perhaps.

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