Fantasy Baseball 2012: Rest-of-Season Projections for Saves Leaders

AccuScore, a company that specializes in thorough game simulations, has made a few on-the-fly revisions to its seasonal MLB projections.

These 28 relievers, based on AccuScore projections, will register at least 14 saves from this point forward (June 5-Sept. 30):

1. Jason Motte, Cardinals—30
2. Joe Nathan, Rangers—29
3. Jose Valverde, Tigers—29
4. Jonathan Papelbon, Phillies—28
5. Aroldis Chapman, Reds—27
6. John Axford, Brewers—24
7. Craig Kimbrel, Braves—23
8. Kenley Jansen, Dodgers—23
9. David Robertson, Yankees—22
10. Joel Hanrahan, Pirates—22
11. Addison Reed, White Sox—22
12. Fernando Rodney, Rays—22
13. Rafael Betancourt, Rockies—21
14. J.J. Putz, Diamondbacks—21
15. Santiago Casilla, Giants—21
 

Breakdown

• Motte would not be my first choice for 30 saves over the next four months on the heels of just four saves (and two blown save opportunities) from May 9 to June 4. From this, I'm assuming the AccuScore computers have the Cardinals as the National League Central's most successful team down the stretch.
• It pays to be buttressed by an amazing offense, of course, but Joe Nathan, for all his elbow troubles in recent years, has been rock-solid as the Rangers' closer. Since May 16, Nathan has surrendered just two hits (with zero walks).
• It'll be interesting to see how the Yankees negotiate the closing duties after David Robertson returns to the bullpen from injury. Current closer Rafael Soriano (five saves, 0.00 ERA, 1.07 WHIP since May 22) has been lights-out in his brief stint as the back-end ace.
• After reliever Brian Wilson went down with a season-ending injury in April, I backed Sergio Romo—and not Casilla—for the interim closer position. In lieu of his superb seasonal stats (2-0, two saves, 0.57 ERA, 0.83 WHIP, 21/5 K-BB ratio), I was hardly wrong to characterize Romo as San Francisco's best option at that crucial spot. But over time, Casilla has proven to be a worthy adversary to Romo's pitching gifts, converting on 10 of 10 May save opportunities, while holding batters to a .193 average for the month.

16. Jim Johnson, Orioles—20
17. Matt Capps, Twins—20
18. Chris Perez, Indians—20
19. Frank Francisco, Mets—19
20. Brandon League, Mariners—18
21. Brett Myers, Astros—17
22. Alfredo Aceves, Red Sox—16
23. Heath Bell, Marlins—16
24. Jonathan Broxton, Royals—16
25. Drew Storen, Nationals—15
26. Brian Fuentes, Athletics—14
27. Jordan Walden, Angels—14
28. Huston Street, Padres—14
 

Breakdown

• Two things immediately stand out with this stanza: How will Jason Motte collect 33 percent more saves than Chris Perez from this point forward (barring injury)? And is AccuScore reluctant to recognize Ernesto Frieri's contributions to the Angels bullpen? Since May 23, Frieri (acquired from San Diego earlier in the season) has four saves and a 0.00 ERA.
• The Mets' Frank Francisco (six saves, 1.09 ERA since May 14) has been a godsend in the highly competitive Sports Illustrated & Friends league, where I currently stand in third place. Prior to picking up Francisco off waivers, my squad was mired in 11th place for saves, with Cleveland's Perez as my only redoubtable closer.
• If I was to bet the over/under for saves from this point forward...I'd go "under" for Matt Capps (20) and "over" for Huston Street (14).
• Conspicuous by his absence is Nationals reliever Tyler Clippard, whose run of four saves and a 0.00 ERA since May 22 will likely go unrewarded after the All-Star break—once Drew Storen returns from injury. As stated in my inaugural Waiver-Wire Pickups piece back in March, Clippard is a tremendous pitching talent who should have a more dominant role in the majors. It's rare to find an arm with pinpoint accuracy, a penchant for 1.5 strikeouts per inning and the chops to finish in pressure-filled situations. And yet he'll be just another ho-hum setup guy in July.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.