UFC on FX 3: Info and Predictions for Every Fight

UFC on FX 3 marks the end of the semifinals of the UFC flyweight tournament with Ian McCall and Demetrious Johnson squaring off after their first fight ended in controversy. The first bout is an early contender for Fight of the Year, which means there is every reason to expect this fight plays out the exact same way. 

The 12 fight card showcases some of the best young, up-and-coming talent in the UFC. While none of the fighters will be challenged for a title in the near future outside of the main event, the undercard does have some interesting prospects, including the brother of Vinny Magalhaes. 

When the UFC puts together a card that builds future stars, it usually translates to a fun night of fights, which is exactly what we should expect on Friday night. 

Jake Hecht vs. Sean Pierson

UFC on FX 3 kicks off with Jake Hecht fighting Sean Pierson.

Jake Hecht is currently 0-2 in the UFC and 11-3 overall in his career. He holds a notable win over Rich Attonito.

Hecht is a typical Midwestern American fighter, as he's most dangerous from the top position. He's a fairly decent striker and does have some slick submissions.

His submission defense is definitely his biggest weakness, as he often puts himself in bad situations. He has a solid gas tank and can keep fighting long after his opponents have faded. 

Sean Pierson is basically everything that Hecht is not. Holding a 1-2 record in the UFC and 11-6 overall, the most consistent thing about his career is his inconsistency.

He got the call from Joe Silva after stringing together five consecutive finishes. He's strong on the feet but definitely excels off his back.

The big concern is that he's never actually beaten a notable opponent. Every time he takes a step up in competition, he's soundly defeated. 

I view this as the typical "loser leaves town" match. Neither guy will be a contender in the UFC, but they can be used to fill out the undercard. The fact that either fighter can claim to be a UFC fighter shows how much Zuffa needs undercard fodder.

As far as the fight goes, I just think that Hecht is better than Pierson the longer the fight goes. Barring a quick submission, he should win this pretty handily. 

Prediction: Jake Hecht via TKO in the second round

Henry Martinez vs. Bernardo Magalhaes

In the second fight of the night, Henry Martinez faces Bernardo Magalhaes. 

Henry Martinez made his UFC debut against Matt Riddle at UFC 143.

You probably remember him as the fighter who was totally undersized yet still remained competitive for the full 15 minutes. He remained so competitive that he actually won the fight in one of the judge's eyes.

He's a very durable fighter with functional boxing and heavy hands. He's also pretty creative when going for submissions.

An important thing to note is that he'll be fighting at a more natural weight this time around and won't be giving up a ton of size. 

Bernardo Magalhaes lost his UFC debut against Tim Means earlier this year at UFC on Fuel: Ellenberger vs. Sanchez. He was one of the top fighters in Australia, where he held and defended the CFC lightweight title.

Like most Brazilians, he's a Muay Thai and Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu fighter. Unlike his contemporaries, he struggles to finish fights.

That means that he has the gas tank to go the full 15 without fading. This will be important on Saturday night, as Martinez will continue to push the action. 

I'm interested in this fight because I want to see how Martinez performs at a more natural weight. I was impressed with his performance at UFC 143 and felt that he did enough to defeat Matt Riddle when watching the fight live cage side. Bernardo will provide enough of a challenge to make Martinez earn the win. 

Prediction: Henry Martinez defeats Bernardo Magalhaes by TKO in the third

Buddy Roberts vs. Caio Magalhaes

In the third fight of the night, Caio Magalhaes faces Buddy Roberts in light heavyweight action. 

When I first saw Buddy Roberts was fighting, I got pretty excited.

In my excitement, I mistook him for Buddy Rogers, one of my favorite old-timey professional wrestlers.

But this isn't about the "Nature Boy" Buddy Rogers, this is about Buddy Roberts. Roberts is making his UFC debut and is a member of Team Jackson out of Albuquerque, New Mexico.

He's a typical Jackson fighter, as he's good from all positions but doesn't really excel at any one thing. The big concern is that this is the first time he's fought in a large show. A lot of the times, a regional fighter will struggle adjusting to the bright lights of the UFC. 

Caio Magalhaes is also making his UFC debut and is in no way related to Bernardo Magalhaes, it's just a coincidence.

Instead, he's the brother of Vinny Magalhaes. Caio is a very strong submission fighter, as he holds a black belt in BJJ and trains with the famed fight camp Nova Uniao.

He's so good off his back that he's submitted an opponent with an omoplata, which is often used for sweeps instead of submissions. Like Roberts, the concern is that he just lacks big fight experience.

I'm pretty interested in seeing how Caio Magalhaes performs in his UFC debut. Vinny wasn't ready for the big show when he made it to The Ultimate Fighter finale.

At 24 years old, Caio may not have the maturity or experience to really showcase his strengths against a game opponent like Roberts. Regardless, I'm still picking Caio, as I believe he has more upside.

Prediction: Caio Magalhaes defeats Buddy Roberts by triangle choke in the first round

Tim Means vs. Justin Salas

In the fourth fight of the night, Tim Means faces Justin Salas in lightweight action. 

Tim Means made his UFC debut with a unanimous decision win over Bernardo Magalhaes at UFC on Fuel: Sanchez vs. Ellenberger.

He was signed by Zuffa after winning the King of the Cage lightweight title.

His most notable win is over Bobby Green, which is to say he doesn't hold a notable win.

He's very well rounded and has power in his hands. He also is capable on the ground, though he prefers to fight from top position. He hasn't been pushed in a fight since a loss to Spencer Fisher in 2005, so that remains an unknown. 

Justin Salas' nickname is "J-Bomb." I bring this up because I not only have no idea why anyone would want to be known as "J-Bomb" but also because he hasn't finished an opponent in two years, which brings the "bomb" portion of the nickname into question.

He successfully made his UFC debut against Anton Kuivanen at UFC on Fuel: Sanchez vs. Ellenberger with a unanimous decision win. He trains with Trevor Wittman at the Grudge Training Center.

Like many fighters, he's strong when he isn't pushed by his opponent. His biggest weakness is his submission defense, as he's been caught multiple times in his career. It should be noted that he has solid conditioning, as he's gone 25 minutes in previous fights. 

Honestly, I'm kind of indifferent toward this fight. I think that Means has more upside, but it's so minor that it really doesn't need to be mentioned.

The loser will likely get another shot in the UFC, but like most undercard fighters, they will never elevate themselves past the prelims. 

Prediction: Tim Means by unanimous decision

Dustin Pague vs. Jared Papazian

Dustin Pague takes on Jared Papazian in the fifth fight of the night. 

Dustin Pague was a competitor on the 14th season of The Ultimate Fighter and lost his UFC debut against John Albert at the finale.

That usually marks the end of a competitor's career, so it's telling that Joe Silva is giving him another shot in the UFC.

Pague was a strong bantamweight competitor on the show and has demonstrated knockout power, which is a rarity at the lower weights.

It should be stated that he lacks the cage IQ to stay out of dangerous spots. That has been his undoing on multiple occasions. 

Jared Papazian is the former King of the Cage flyweight (135 pounds) champion. He was unsuccessful in his UFC debut against Mike Easton at UFC on FX: Guillard vs. Miller. He holds a notable win over Abel Cullum.

Papazian is a very technical striker and is fairly large for bantamweight. He has difficulty against strong wrestlers who can maintain position. He does have some decent BJJ, but he usually uses it for sweeps to get back to his feet. 

I think this is a case of Joe Silva seeing something in Pague and giving him a fight that he believes is winnable. I say this because the common practice is for the losers at the Ultimate Finale to be cut from the promotion and relegated to the regional scene. This is the only reason I think that Pague beats Papazian.

Prediction: Dustin Pague by unanimous decision

Leonard Garcia vs. Matt Grice

In the sixth fight of the night, Leonard Garcia faces Matt Grice in featherweight action. 

Leonard Garcia may be the most frustrating fighter in the UFC.

When I say this, I mean that he frustrates me because he wins decisions he shouldn't ever win.

There are many fighters that have losses because the judges were either under the influence or just plain stupid. I'd like to think they were under the influence, though that is very unlikely.

What he lacks in ground game and defensive wrestling, he makes up for with inaccurate punches and a solid chin. He's a fan favorite because he's rarely in a boring fight. 

Matt Grice is the Bizarro Leonard Garcia. Where Garcia lacks submissions and wrestling, Grice excels.

He's incredibly well versed on the ground. He also has some technical strikes that land with accuracy.

This is a trade-off, as he lacks Garcia's knockout power. In fact, the two are such polar opposites that Grice lacks Leonard's chin and has been knocked out several times in his career. 

This is a very interesting matchup. In one corner is a fighter who can't seem to put a combination together, while the other can throw combos but has an awful chin. My gut tells me that Garcia wins this, but I'm not picking with my gut. 

Prediction: Matt Grice by submission

Seth Baczynski vs. Lance Benoist

Seth Baczynski faces Lance Benoist in welterweight action.

Seth Baczynski made his way to the UFC via The Ultimate Fighter.

Though he was unsuccessful in his attempt to capture that crown, he made enough of an impression to become a permanent fixture in the UFC.

He was pretty big at middleweight, which caused him to make the cut down to 170. Since dropping to welterweight, he's been on a tear.

He's very aggressive and constantly pushes forward. This has caused his opponents to make mental errors and get caught in submissions.

He really hasn't shown any weaknesses at welterweight, but I imagine that cutting weight is difficult, and his conditioning should be a concern.

Lance Benoist lacks the Octagon experience that Seth Baczynski brings to the table. He makes up for it with aggression and creativity when on the ground.

He possesses knockout power and has a chin that allows him to take one in order to give one. He's also very young and has some big upside since he's improved a lot in between fights.

There are some current concerns with Benoist as he enters this fight. The first is that he's giving up a ton of size. The second is that he doesn't train with a major camp and may not get certain looks in training. 

I think this is a bad matchup for Lance Benoist. He looked solid against Matthew Riddle when he made his UFC debut, but everyone knows that Riddle is super inconsistent.

He's going to give up a ton of size and against a fighter as aggressive as Baczynski, that can mean a quick finish. 

Prediction: Seth Baczynski by TKO in the first

Mike Pierce vs. Carlos Eduardo Rocha

Mike Pierce and Carlos Eduardo Rocha headline the Fuel TV portion of the card. 

Mike Pierce brings a lot of strengths to the table, including his strength.

He's incredibly tough and has decent striking, though he's much stronger on the ground. He also has some high-level wrestling and is strong in the clinch and when fighting to maintain top position.

Thus far, he's been unable to pick up a big win in the UFC, so this fight is important to see if he is ready for another shot at the top of the division or if he still needs time to develop.

That he hasn't picked up a big win in the UFC isn't really a negative, as he's lost split decisions to Josh Koscheck and Johny Hendricks. 

Carlos Eduardo Rocha is a finisher. There's no simpler way to say it.

In his career, the only time a fight of his has gone to decision was in his UFC debut. He's a very slick grappler and can pull off submissions from all positions.

He also looks for the stoppage when he has an opponent rocked and rarely ever lets them recover.

He lost a very close split decision to Jake Ellenberger in his UFC debut, which should say a lot about his toughness and durability. It also should tell you that he almost beat one of the best fighters the UFC's welterweight division has to offer. 

I really like this fight. Rocha is a finisher and Pierce is a very strong fighter who never gives an inch whenever he fights. That combination usually leads to fireworks. That's what I believe will happen on Friday night. 

Prediction: Carlos Eduardo Rocha via submission

Eddie Wineland vs. Scott Jorgensen

Eddie Wineland and Scott Jorgensen open the FX portion of the night with bantamweight action.

Eddie Wineland is a former WEC bantamweight champion turned UFC bantamweight gatekeeper.

He's very strong and is well rounded. He ruled the division when the level of talent was not as dependable as it is currently.

He has pretty solid striking but just has a hard time keeping up with the faster fighters in the division. His wrestling is still his biggest strength. He's also super tough and can take a lot of punishment in fights.

His weakness is that he lacks a cage IQ, which lets opponents take over fights. 

Scott Jorgensen is a former WEC bantamweight title contender who has been unable to capture the same success in the UFC.

He's a solid wrestler and has a nasty guillotine choke. He also has some decently heavy hands, though he fails to put together combinations well, which makes it pretty easy for opponents to counter-punch him.

I also have questions about his cage IQ, as he seems to be a different fighter than he was in the WEC.

This is a great fight on paper and will likely deliver tomorrow night. Eddie Wineland is the former champion who has slipped to gatekeeper status, while Scott Jorgensen has been unable to impress in his UFC career. 

Prediction: Eddie Wineland by decision

Mike Pyle vs. Josh Neer

In the second fight of the FX portion, Mike Pyle faces Josh Neer. 

Mike Pyle has been described as the best fighter out of Xtreme Couture.

It's a pretty baller description, though his career may not reflect such skills.

He's extremely durable and is dangerous from all positions, though he's at his best when fighting off his back.

He's crafty with sweeps and submissions, which means that opponents have to constantly readjust to maintain position. His stand up is serviceable but definitely not as dangerous as his submission game.

Josh Neer is essentially a mirror image of Mike Pyle as far as skills go. He's very slick off his back and has some really good submissions from guard. He also has some very good stand up and elbows from the clinch.

What's frustrating about Neer is that he's a lot better than his record reflects. He holds a lot of notable wins and has been in the cage with some very dangerous opponents. He also has the ability draw an opponent into his style of fight. 

I'm legitimately interested in this fight. On one hand, Neer has the stand up to give Pyle fits. On the other, Pyle can take Neer off his game with grappling. It's an interesting matchup that should play out perfectly on FX. 

Prediction: Mike Pyle by submission

Erick Silva vs. Charlie Brenneman

Erick Silva faces Charlie Brenneman in the co-main event of the night. 

Erick Silva has crazy natural power.

He's one of those guys who just naturally has what it takes to hit hard. 

He also has the killer instinct needed to follow up on it. He smells blood and goes after it. It unfortunately earned him a DQ against Carlo Prater in his UFC debut. 

He's a black belt in BJJ, but sometimes his scrambles from the bottom are lacking and he can be held down. His black belt in Judo keeps him off the mat well enough, though.

Charlie Brenneman is a very strong wrestler who has the ability to maintain top position against scrambling opponents. He also has very good submissions, which forces opponents to focus on what he does instead of their own game plan.

His stand up is still improving, but currently it's still pretty basic. He has a hell of a chin and never gasses out in fights. 

This is an interesting matchup because Brenneman possesses the skills that give Erick Silva fits. Strong wrestlers have been Silva's Kryptonite, and Brenneman is one of the best in the division.

On the other hand, Brenneman has trouble with uber-aggressive fighters who constantly press the action. 

Prediction: Erick Silva by TKO

Ian McCall vs. Demetrious Johnson

In the main event, Ian McCall and Demetrious Johnson rematch for a chance to face Joseph Benavidez for the flyweight title.

Ian McCall and Demetrious Johnson have already faced each other, which makes this an interesting matchup.

From what we saw in the first fight, McCall struggled with Johnson's speed but was able to land the heavier shots whenever there was an exchange.

Many expected Johnson to have the advantage wrestling, but it was McCall who controlled the action on the ground.

As this is an immediate rematch, there is no way to know what they have done to improve. McCall is a very strong boxer and wrestler, while Johnson is known primarily for his speed and wrestling. Johnson appeared to be the smaller of the two in the first outing. 

I'm excited to see this fight because I love watching the lighter weights. The first bout was extremely fun, and I expect this one to be no different.

I think that McCall has the advantage of knowing that he came close to finishing Johnson the first time around, and that should be enough to give him the mental edge.

Prediction: Ian McCall by decision