Florida State Football: Biggest Red Flags for the Seminoles

After Florida State's greenhorn players experienced a disappointing 9-4 season, fans knew change would be on the way.

The offseason question now is, what transformation will take place? Will Jimbo Fisher continue to post mediocre records, or will the recruits' harnessed talents take the 'Noles back to the '90s?

The defense was top-notch last season, ranking fourth in points against. There's no issue there.

Now, the Seminoles have run the pro-style offense since Jimbo Fisher arrived in Tallahassee in 2007. That didn't make a difference in 2011; FSU struggled to run the ball. Fans understood it was a lack of play time for the offensive line.

But will the offensive line sink the 'Noles next season? And if the line turns out to not be an issue, what other pratfalls might the Seminoles encounter? Can Florida State endure 2012?

Injuries (Especially Against Virginia Tech)

The Seminoles had eight substitutions on the offensive line last year. But that allowed for experience to develop among a few tandems of guards and a center.

But even though their schedule is weak, defense usually stars in the ACC. Virginia Tech, led by legendary coach Frank Beamer, can be the pothole that stalls the Seminole bandwagon. It is conceivable that a 9-0 Florida State team will enter Blacksburg not respecting the Hokies' defensive threats. Florida State's Homecoming romp of Duke would have taken place over a week ago. The Seminoles could be so excited by the national limelight that players ignore fundamentals.

Florida State shouldn't be cocky. Games against Clemson, at South Florida, at N.C. State and at Miami would leave the Seminoles on their second-string center and guards. And those backups could be injured when they visit the ACC's perennial powerhouse. 

You see, Virginia Tech was lacking at defensive tackle last season. Not anymore. Luther Maddy and Corey Marshall have experience to fill that void. Each of these beasts are 6'1'' and measure at least 260 pounds. The Hokies defensive inside line will retain star Derrick Hopkins, who had 51 tackles last year.

E.J. Manuel's Consistency

When I look back at the stats, it's quite surprising.

Heisman Trophy winner Charlie Ward posted similar passing numbers to E.J. Manuel in 1992. Come the next season, Ward had dramatically improved his throwing skills enough to win FSU's first national championship.

Charlie Ward vs. E.J. Manuel--A Statistical Pattern to Success?

Charlie Ward (1992-'93)

E.J. Manuel (2011-2012)

Year	Comp.%	Pass. Yds	TDs/INTs	Year	Comp. %	Pass. Yds.	TDs/INTs
1992	55.9%	2647	22/17	2011	65.3%	2666	18/8
1993	69.5%	3032	27/4	2012	?	?	?

Now, quarterbacks improve or regress annually, but for the sake of speculation, I've used Charlie's statistics and found out how Manuel would proportionally improve on his 2011 figures.

I threw out E.J.'s completion results, because no quarterback will complete 81.6 percent of his passes.

The rest of the results are:

3,054 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and two interceptions.

Sounds dandy, doesn't it?

But isn't this article about red flags for FSU's 2012 outing? Yes. And since their success hinges on E.J. Manuel's success, there are two scenarios that can completely mess this up:

1. E.J. performs roughly the same/regresses. He has a tendency to get nervous.

2. E.J. gets injured (likely in the Virginia Tech game)

ACC Title Game Rematch

The Seminoles are No. 1. They've completed their first undefeated regular season since 1999. They've posted a perfect regular ACC record since 2000.

Their championship opponent will likely be Virginia Tech or Miami, both teams they will have defeated in the regular season. Each thirsts for revenge.

Virginia Tech is a safe bet to make the ACC title game. Miami, though, might make the title game just because of favorable scheduling. The Hurricanes host Florida State, UNC, N.C. State and Virginia Tech at Miami Gardens. UNC and Virginia Tech are Miami's main threats in the ACC Coastal. UNC is in a state of flux, and Virginia Tech is the current conference power. In other words, the Hurricanes are the dark-horse contender to spoil it all!

Al Golden rebuilt Temple, and it's not an impossible feat for him to win a tiebreaker in the Coastal. The home-field advantage (though it lacks in Miami Gardens) should help them at least knock off the Tar Heels or the Hokies.

Either way, the Seminoles are stuck with a fired-up team. In this case, the 'Noles could lose a berth in both the National Championship Game and the Orange Bowl.

But if UNC wins the Coastal, the revenge factor is subdued.

FSU fans, your team can win any game. For your sake, let's hope you get an easier path with North Carolina.

Honestly, anything can go wrong any year. But this year, Fisher has all the players and all the momentum.