Roger Federer: Breaking Down Fed-Ex's Chances at French Open

A win at the Madrid Open was impressive for Roger Federer, but he has bigger things on his mind with the French Open just a few weeks away.

The most recent tournament may have been marred with a blue surface disguising itself as clay, but it was still the first time Federer has won the tournament since 2009.

And wouldn't you know it, that was the only year Fed-Ex has won the French Open. 

Perhaps more importantly than the results of the Madrid Open, however, will be how the Italian Open goes this week. 

It has a surface more comparable to the French Open and the last seven winners have been Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic, easily the two biggest obstacles for Federer winning another major at Roland Garros.

So, while this week's tournament is extremely key in predicting what will happen at the French, and you should pay attention to how it goes, here's a closer look at the stars Federer must find a way to get past. 

Novak Djokovic

Maybe it's just me, but it seems like the world No. 1 has been losing a little bit of steam lately. After winning the Australian Open, the Djoker has lost four of his last five tournaments.

In addition to his loss at Madrid, Djokovic lost to Andy Murray in Dubai, John Isner at the Indian Wells, and most importantly, to Nadal at Monte Carlo. 

That loss to Nadal proved Rafa is still the King of Clay and the French Open is still easily the biggest obstacle in Djokovic winning the Grand Slam. 

Djokovic has to be seen as the third favorite—if not fourth, behind Andy Murray—to win at Roland Garros.

Rafael Nadal

Nadal is still obstacle No. 1 at the French Open for Federer. 

Because the clay at Madrid wasn't all that normal, I'm not worried that he lost there to Fernando Verdasco, but I'm worried how he lost.

Nadal was up five games to two in the third and final set, but then he dropped five straight games to lose the match.

Rafa was clearly unhappy all week about the blue surface, but there's still no question he had the talent to win that tournament. However, he let the surface get in his head.

Federer will still be the underdog should he go up against Nadal, but Fed-Ex's ability to hold his composure in Madrid while other superstars were losing it is certainly a good sign. 

Don't be surprised if Federer, who has the momentum right now, pulls the monumental upset in Paris. 

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