2012 Fantasy Football: 4 Big Names to Avoid

In fantasy football, it’s all about the numbers and little about the names.

Still, a number of fantasy players will be selected in large part because of past production, records and Pro Bowl trips instead of being selected based solely on their fantasy potential for 2012.

Some big names, like DeSean Jackson and Josh Freeman, will see a drop in average draft position (ADP) because of last year’s below-expectations performances. Other big names will be hesitantly drafted because of injuries that kept them out most or all of 2011 (Peyton Manning, Jamaal Charles, etc). But with a lower ADP on these big names you’re more likely to get fair value. At the right price, those players could be valuable fantasy commodities.

But here are four other big names that could burn you this year. They should be avoided unless they come significantly below ADP and fill a need.

Adrian Peterson

The good news is Peterson continued to tote the rock with authority and averaged an impressive 4.7 yards per carry in 2011. He also put up his fifth straight season of double-digit TDs.

But a combination of injuries (that limited him to 12 games) and a decrease in receiving numbers makes me wonder if Adrian Peterson’s best fantasy days are behind him.

Peterson had just 18 receptions for 139 yards in 2011. Of the top 10 scoring fantasy RBs in 2011, only Atlanta’s Michael Turner had fewer receptions and most had at least three times the receiving production of Peterson. If he has even a minor drop in success on the ground and/or Toby Gerhart gets more carries in hopes of preserving Peterson for the whole season, Peterson could fall out of the top 10 fantasy RBs

In addition, Peterson underwent reconstructive knee surgery on December 30, 2011 and has begun rehabbing the reconstructed ACL and repaired MCL in his left knee.

Of course, Peterson would still be a good addition to your squad at the right price, but I wouldn’t take him at the end of a run at RB.

Michael Vick

The reasons to avoid Vick can be summed up in one word: injuries. Vick was a first-round pick in many fantasy drafts last year but ended up as just the No. 11 scoring fantasy QB.

Even though he finished the fantasy season pretty strong (21, 20 and 21 fantasy points the last three weeks in standard scoring), the lack of consistency the rest of the year and his history of missing chunks of games make him a player to avoid. Vick missed four games in 2010 with a rib injury. He missed three games last year and was unable to finish two others.

Vick may be one of the most recognizable names in the NFL, but he’s too unreliable to deserve top billing on your fantasy team.

Steven Jackson

Jackson has been a model of consistency with seven straight 1,000-yard seasons, so what’s the concern?

Well, the concerns are two-fold. For one, Jackson is nearing the usual RB-wall of 30 years old. Jackson will be 29 for the duration of the 2012 season. Second, the Rams used the 50th overall pick in the draft to take Isaiah Pead, a running back from Cincinnati. Pead was the fifth-ranked RB prospect in the 2012 draft class according to CBS sports.

Pead could see a lot of third-down action, meaning fewer receptions and less total-yardage potential for Jackson. The elite fantasy RBs add significant value in the passing game. It doesn’t seem likely that Jackson will have that dimension in 2012.

Reggie Bush

So, Reggie Bush finally had a 1,000-yard rushing season in his first turn as a feature back in Miami. But it wasn’t the type of break through in fantasy it could have been. Bush’s fame is still much larger than his game. His best fantasy season (arguably) was his 2006 rookie season when he had 1,307 combined rushing and receiving yards and nine total TDs.

Last season he had 1,382 combined rushing and receiving yards and seven total TDs.

The Dolphins also added University of Miami RB Lamar Miller to go along with Bush and Daniel Thomas in the Miami backfield. It’s hard to imagine Bush topping his 2011 rushing production. If the Dolphins don't incorporate Bush more into the passing attack where he excelled with New Orleans, his fantasy value will drop.