Odds 30 Top Upcoming MLB Free Agents Are Dealt in 2012

We are still roughly three months worth of baseball from the July trade deadline, but it is never too early to take a look at the potential crop of MLB players who could find themselves on the trade block this summer.

Sticking with players who will either hit free agency next season or will be entering an option year next year, I have put together a list of the top 30 upcoming free agents.

So here is my take on the odds that each of those 30 upcoming free agents are traded at the deadline. While a lot will change between now and then as teams become more clear-cut buyers and sellers, a solid assumption can already be made as to who will be available and who won't.

Option-Year Players Who Aren't Going Anywhere

C Brian McCann ($12 million option, $500,000 buyout)

The most consistent offensive catcher in baseball, McCann is still a relative bargain at $12 million and the Braves have no reason not to pick up his option.

2B Robinson Cano ($15 million option, $2 million buyout)

The best second baseman in baseball, Cano is about to get paid in a big way, but for 2013 the Yankees will enjoy having him for well below market value for one more season.

CF Curtis Granderson ($13 million option, $2 million buyout)

Granderson broke out in a big way last season, and with many stars around him aging the Yankees rely on him as much as anyone to power the offense.

SP Dan Haren ($15.5 million option, $3.5 million buyout)

The Angels biggest strength is their pitching depth, and they didn't go out and spend a ton last offseason so they can start letting integral parts of the team walk the following offseason. 

C Miguel Montero, Arizona Diamondbacks

Age: 28

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent 

2012 Stats: .267/.359/.356, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 12 R

Montero put together the best season of his career last year, hitting .282 BA, with 18 HR and 86 RBI batting mostly out of the cleanup spot for the NL West champion Diamondbacks.

He will earn $5.9 million this season in what was his final year of arbitration eligibility, and while the Diamondbacks have tabled extension talks for now, he is reportedly looking for a deal in the neighborhood of the four-year, $52 million deal that Victor Martinez signed with the Tigers.

Odds He Is Traded: two percent

With the Diamondbacks capable of winning now, and without anyone remotely capable of stepping in for Montero, don't expect him to be going anywhere unless the Diamondbacks are blown away with an offer.

C/1B Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers

Age: 30

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .238/.327/.500, 7 HR, 15 RBI, 13 R

Napoli gave the Rangers more than they could have ever asked for last season with a .320 BA, 30 HR, 75 RBI season, and that earned him a raise to $9.4 million in his final year of arbitration.

With the Rangers likely focused on re-signing Josh Hamilton and having recently extended Ian Kinsler for nearly $100 million there is a chance the team could let Napoli walk this offseason.

Odds He Is Traded: zero

The Rangers are trying to get over the World Series hump this year, so they would have nothing to gain from trading Napoli, even if they don't intend on keeping him around beyond this year.

1B Lance Berkman, St. Louis Cardinals

Age: 36

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .348/.500/.522, 0 HR, 2 RBI, 6 R

The NL Comeback Player of the Year last season when he put up a .301 BA, 31 HR, 94 RBI line on a one-year, $8 million deal, the Cardinals brought Berkman back on another one-year contract for 2012 with a $4 million raise.

He has been injured much of the year—playing in just seven games—but he is expected to return soon and for a Cardinals team looking to return to the World Series he will need to get right back into the swing of things when he returns.

Odds He Is Traded: zero

The Cardinals are looking to contend, and while they likely won't bring Berkman back for another year with prospect Matt Adams waiting in the wings, don't expect him to be going anywhere at the deadline unless the Cardinals fall apart.

1B Adam LaRoche, Washington Nationals

Age: 32

2013 Contract Status: $10 million mutual option

2012 Stats: .311/.392/.511, 4 HR, 17 RBI, 9 R

Coming off of a 25 HR, 100 RBI season in 2010, LaRoche seemed like a relative steal when the Nationals inked him to a two-year, $16 million deal.

However, he played in just 43 games last season before a torn labrum ended his season. That injury, coupled with the breakout of Michael Morse last season, led many to believe that LaRoche would be expendable.

Instead, Morse has yet to play a game this season and LaRoche has been the Nationals most consistent hitter. He holds a $10 million mutual option for next year, but if he continues to produce he could turn it down and look for a multi-year deal.

Odds He Is Traded: 10 percent

Even if the Nationals remain in contention all year, they could look to move LaRoche to fill another need. If Morse comes back strong and Bryce Harper sticks with the big league club he could become expendable by July.

1B Carlos Lee, Houston Astros

Age: 36

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .289/.355/.392, 2 HR, 14 RBI, 8 R

Thankfully for the Astros, Lee is in the final year of his six-year, $100 million deal and the rebuilding team will soon be out from under his huge salary.

While he is no longer an MVP candidate, he is still a solid run producer (94 RBI in 2011) and plus offensive player who could serve as a useful bat for a contender come the trade deadline.

Odds He Is Traded: 80 percent

The biggest sticking point with Lee is his $18.5 million salary, of which the Astros were reportedly willing to take on half of in trade talks this winter, but it seems unlikely he'll make it past July in Houston.

SS Stephen Drew, Arizona Diamondbacks

Age: 29

2013 Contract Status: $10 million mutual option, $1.35 million buyout

2012 Stats: DNP—recovering from broken ankle

Since becoming the Diamondbacks everyday shortstop back in 2007, Drew posted an average line of .268 BA, 15 HR, 63 RBI and seven SB as one of the better all-around shortstops in baseball.

However, last season he suffered a broken ankle that ended his season and has kept him off the field to this point in 2012, and his future in Arizona is certainly in doubt.

Odds He Is Traded: five percent

For Drew to be traded, he would need to return strong and show he has value and the Diamondbacks would need to be out of contention when that happens. Too many ifs to put it over five percent, but it could happen.

3B David Wright, New York Mets

Age: 29

2013 Contract Status: $16 million option, $1 million buyout

2012 Stats: .375/.481/.545, 3 HR, 14 RBI, 18 R

Much like Jose Reyes last season, Wright is in the midst of the best season of his career. Granted it is still early, but he has been fantastic to this point.

Unlike Reyes last year, the Mets don't have to decide whether to trade Wright or risk losing him as they hold a team option on him for next season. Nonetheless, moving him while he's playing this hot would certainly net a big return and aid in the Mets rebuilding process.

Odds He Is Moved: 45 percent

The Mets set a bit of precedent last season when they went against conventional wisdom and held onto Reyes in hopes of re-signing him, only to lose him. Wright has tremendous value at a thin position, but I think it is more likely he sticks around than he's moved at this point.

3B Kevin Youkilis, Boston Red Sox

Age: 33

2013 Contract Status: $13 million option, $1 million buyout

2012 Stats: .219/.292/.344, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 14 R

Youkilis was a consistent producer for the Red Sox up until last season—when he saw his average drop from .307 to .258—and the decline has continued this season.

His slow start has drawn the ire of manager Bobby Valentine and a recent trip to the DL has opened the door at third base for top prospect Will Middlebrooks (.333 BA, 9 HR, 27 RBI at Triple-A) and he has gone 3-for-9 with a pair of doubles in his first two games.

Odds He Is Traded: 25 percent

If Youkilis continues to struggle and Middlebrooks proves ready, don't be surprised if they hand the job over to the 23-year-old and start shopping Youkilis. Chances are, his option for next season won't be picked up regardless.

LF Josh Hamilton, Texas Rangers

Age: 31

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .381/.431/.691, 9 HR, 26 RBI, 20 R

Hamilton is currently 16 batting average points behind Derek Jeter to lead the AL in all three Triple Crown categories, as he continues to be a force when healthy.

Those health concerns have at least played a role in the Rangers not locking up their superstar to this point, but rest assured they will do what it takes to keep one of the most dynamic players in the game in Arlington beyond 2012.

Odds He Is Traded: zero

The Rangers are going to be in contention all season, and have to be considered favorites in the AL at this point. No chance they move their superstar.

CF Michael Bourn, Atlanta Braves

Age: 29

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .331/.394/.408, 0 HR, 7 RBI, 20 R, 9 SB

A Gold Glove center fielder and the NL steals leader in each of the past three seasons, Bourn is among the premier table-setters in all of baseball right now.

The Braves gave up four players to acquire him from the Astros at the deadline last season, and he earned $6.845 million in his final year of arbitration eligibility.

Odds He Is Traded: two percent

The Braves have made no moves towards re-signing Bourn to this point, at least that was the case two months ago. While it remains to be seen if he'll be in Atlanta beyond 2012, it seems unlikely a contending Braves team would move him, seeing as they have no real replacement option.

CF B.J. Upton, Tampa Bay Rays

Age: 27

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .333/.375/.542, 2 HR, 11 RBI, 7 R

Upton has long been rumored to be on the trading block, as he has been a consistent source of frustration since his .300 BA, 24 HR, 82 RBI and 22 SB season in 2007 at the age of 22.

He is off to a nice start this season, as are the Rays, but that does not necessarily mean Upton won't be traded, as the team could very well not re-sign him and could move him in an attempt to upgrade at shortstop or catcher.

Odds He Is Traded: 30 percent

The Rays will likely put out feelers on what they can get for Upton again this year at the deadline, but on a team that looks like a legitimate contender—but is short on offense—they'll think long and hard before moving his bat.

CF Shane Victorino, Philadelphia Phillies

Age: 31

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .246/.294/.415, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 17 R, 9 SB

Victorino has become more and more relied upon in the middle of the Phillies order as some of the team's stars have gotten older and dealt with injuries, as he is currently hitting third in the lineup.

Last season was arguably the best of his career, as he hit .279 BA, with 17 HR and 61 RBI and led the league with 16 triples while posting a 5.0 WAR.

Odds He Is Traded: zero

He reportedly wants a five-year extension with the Phillies and it is hard to imagine the team letting him walk at the end of the season, let alone trading him this year with so many holes offensively.

RF Andre Ethier, Los Angeles Dodgers

Age: 30

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .269/.342/.529, 6 HR, 28 RBI, 15 R

A notoriously fast starter, Ethier is at it again this season as he leads the NL in RBI, as he has had plenty of chances hitting directly behind superstar Matt Kemp.

As good as he generally starts seasons, he has struggled to put together a full season missing a total of 50 games over the past two seasons since hitting .272 BA, with 31 HR and 106 RBI in 2009.

Odds He Is Traded: 20 percent

The Dodgers are off to a hot start, but if they come back to earth they could certainly consider moving Ethier as they could start to re-stock a somewhat depleted farm system by dealing him. Also, he's likely to fetch far more than he's worth on the open market and the Dodgers likely won't overspend to keep him this coming winter.

RF Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners

Age: 38

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .298/.338/.405, 1 HR, 12 RBI, 13 R

Still plugging along at 38 years old, Ichiro finds himself in a new role this season as the Mariners have slotted him in the No. 3 spot in the lineup in an effort to make the most of a patchwork lineup.

He's coming off the worst year of his career (.272 BA, 184 hits) but he is still a supremely talented player and sitting on 2,464 career hits whoever signs him this winter has the added bonus of witnessing a milestone.

Odds He Is Traded: 33 percent

Ichiro has 10/5 rights so he can veto any proposed move he doesn't like, but if he finds himself with the opportunity to play for a title by latching on with a contender at the deadline and the Mariners can fetch something in return for a player they're likely to let walk, it could be a win-win.

RF Nick Swisher, New York Yankees

Age: 31

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .279/.347/.628, 7 HR, 24 RBI, 11 R

Swisher has been a consistent contributor since joining the Yankees prior to the 2009 season, posting an average line of .267 BA, 27 HR and 85 RBI and carrying the offense at times when other struggled.

He has been terrific so far this season, leading the team in RBI and ranking second in HR, and the Yankees count on him to be a key run producer in the bottom half of the lineup.

Odds He Is Traded: five percent

As good as Swisher has been for the Yankees, the team needs starting pitching and if packaging Swisher to acquire said pitching is what it takes they would likely make a move. That said, most teams want prospects when selling at the deadline, not 31-year-old outfielders with expiring contracts, so Swisher should be a safe bet to stay in New York.

DH Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays

Age: 29

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .279/.336/.595, 9 HR, 25 RBI, 17 R

Once a highly touted prospect in the Reds organization, Encarnacion has come into his own in Toronto as he has averaged 19 HR and 53 RBI in just 406 at-bats over the past two seasons.

This year, with Jose Bautista slumping early, he has carried the Blue Jays offense and is on pace to set career highs across the board. Just in time for his next contract, one that could wind up being a decent-sized multi-year deal considering his ability to not only hit but also play first and third base.

Odds He Is Dealt: 75 percent

If the Blue Jays are unable to stay in the AL East hunt, Encarnacion could be among the most sought-after bats at the deadline. He's making just $3.5 million this season, making him all the more valuable, and the Blue Jays will at the very least listen to offers.

DH David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox

Age: 36

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: .365/.422/.654, 6 HR, 22 RBI, 18 R

Now three years removed from what seemed to be a drastic decline (.238 BA in 2009), Ortiz continues to rake as one of the best sluggers in the American League.

The Red Sox considered letting him walk in the offseason, but eventually brought him back on a one-year, $14.575 million deal and he has rewarded them with a fantastic first month.

Odds He Is Traded: 30 percent

It is hard to imagine Ortiz as anything but a Red Sox at this point, but the fact of the matter is Boston has struggled mightily to this point and they could very well be out of it come July the way they are going. If that's the case, what team wouldn't want to add a proven clutch bat like Ortiz for their stretch run?

SP Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs

Age: 35

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: 4 GS, 0-1, 0.95 ERA, 29 Ks, 28.1 IP

In the final year of his contract, Dempster is on his way back from a DL stint but currently has the best ERA in the National League among qualifying starters. Despite that, he sits at 0-1 on the season.

The Cubs are in the early stages of rebuilding under Theo Epstein and company, and they likely won't be in a position to win for a couple seasons, making Dempster an incredibly valuable trade chip.

Odds He Is Traded: 90 percent

Dempster is as sure a bet to be traded as anyone on this list, and if he continues to pitch the way he has early on this season he could be the most sought-after veteran starter at the deadline. The better he pitches, the more the Cubs are going to get in return come July.

SP Gavin Floyd, Chicago White Sox

Age: 29

2013 Contract Status: $9.5 million option

2012 Stats: 6 GS, 2-3, 3.03 ERA, 37 Ks, 38.2 IP

Floyd has been unable to match the success he enjoyed in his first season in Chicago, when he went 17-8 with a 3.84 ERA back in 2008. However, he's been solid, averaging an 11-12 record and 4.17 ERA over 191 innings in the three season since.

He's off to a good start this season, and he is still in his prime, so he certainly has value, especially given his durability as he has started at least 30 games each of the past four seasons.

Odds He Is Traded: 60 percent

The White Sox have been surprisingly competitive in what was expected to be a rebuilding season, but that likely won't keep them from being sellers once the deadline rolls around. Floyd will be their most valuable trade chip, and GM Kenny Williams is never one to simply stand pat.

SP Zack Greinke, Milwaukee Brewers

Age: 28

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: 6 GS, 3-1, 4.11 ERA, 35 Ks, 35 IP

The Brewers gave up a boatload last winter to acquire Greinke, and after a slow start he closed out the year 9-3 with a 2.61 ERA over his final 16 starts.

He has the stuff to be a staff ace, evidenced not only by that finish but also by his 2009 Cy Young award as a member of the Royals.

Odds He Is Traded: 20 percent

The Brewers went all-in last season in what they were fully aware was Prince Fielder's final season with the team. And while they will no doubt try to re-sign Greinke, they could listen to offers and certainly be swayed at the deadline, as their farm system is decimated right now and would benefit greatly from the haul he would no doubt bring.

SP Cole Hamles, Philadelphia Phillies

Age: 28

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: 6 GS, 4-1, 2.45 ERA, 44 Ks, 40.1 IP

After posting the best season of his career last year, Hamels is off to an equally impressive start this year as he leads the National League in strikeouts.

He'll be seeking a contract at least in line with what Matt Cain signed this winter (five-year, $112.5 million) and the belief is that he will get a six-year deal from whoever signs him. 

Odds He Is Traded: 25 percent

The Phillies are little more than an average team right now, as their fantastic starting pitching is more or less cancelled out by a poor offense. The team will do what they can to re-sign their young stud. But if talks don't progress between now and July—and the team thinks they're going to lose him in the offseason—they could look to cut their losses and take what would be a ridiculous prospect package in return.

SP Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers

Age: 32

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: 6 GS, 3-1, 2.97 ERA, 31 Ks, 39.1 IP

A top prospect with the Rangers back in 2003, Lewis struggled early in his big league career and spent 2008 and 2009 pitching in Japan.

He came back stateside a different pitcher, and has gone 29-24 with a 3.96 ERA in 70 starts over two-plus seasons since. He's topped the 200-inning mark each of the past two seasons, and holds a 4-1 postseason record with a 2.34 ERA.

Odds He Is Traded: zero

Much like the other Rangers on this list, there is no chance Lewis is moved as the Rangers are legitimate title contenders and will be holding onto their veteran pieces, regardless of whether or not they intend on bringing them back after this season.

SP Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee Brewers

Age: 30

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: 6 GS, 1-1, 3.41 ERA, 33 Ks, 37 IP

While the Brewers gave up four solid players to acquire Zack Greinke, they gave up a potential future superstar in third baseman Brett Lawrie to get Marcum from the Blue Jays.

He's won 13 games each of the past two seasons, with a combined 3.59 ERA and average of 198 innings, as he is a prototypical steady middle-of-the-rotation starter.

Odds He Is Traded: 20 percent

It all depends on how the Brewers look come July and what their plans are moving forward. They have virtually nothing in the way of minor league depth, and there is a chance they could blow it up at the deadline. They could look to add some quality young talent to make for a fairly quick rebuild around Ryan Braun, Rickie Weeks and Yovani Gallardo.

SP Brandon McCarthy, Oakland Athletics

Age: 28

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: 7 GS, 2-3, 2.96 ERA, 26 Ks, 45.2 IP

Anointed the Opening Day starter on an Athletics team that dealt their top two starters in the offseason, McCarthy is coming off a breakout season of sorts as he went 9-9 with a 3.32 ERA and made a career-high 25 starts.

Once a top prospect, McCarthy has been a late-bloomer, but he looks to be a serviceable middle-of-the-rotation starter at the very least at this point in his career. There would no doubt be a number of teams interested in acquiring him and his reasonable contract ($4.275 million).

Odds He Is Dealt: 80 percent

Really who is safe from being traded in Oakland, after Trevor Cahill and Gio Gonzalez were moved in the offseason? If the A's are presented with the right offer (any offer?) expect McCarthy to be packing his bags.

SP Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox

Age: 31

2013 Contract Status: $22 million option, $4 million buyout

2012 Stats: 6 GS, 3-1, 1.99 ERA, 39 Ks, 45.1 IP

One of the league's premier pitchers early on in his career, Peavy went 58-33 with a 2.97 ERA from 2004 to 2007, winning one wins title, two ERA titles, two strikeout titles and the 2007 NL Cy Young award.

Injuries have plagued him over the past three seasons, but he has been phenomenal early on this season and looks like the Peavy of old.

Odds He Is Traded: 65 percent

Peavy will earn $17 million this year, which is a sticking point of any trade that might be made. Regardless of how well he pitches, it seems unlikely the White Sox would pick up his $22 million option for next season so he will no doubt be on the block.

SP Anibal Sanchez, Miami Marlins

Age: 28

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: 5 GS, 2-0, 2.43 ERA, 38 Ks, 33.1 IP

Sanchez has struggled with both health and consistency since bursting onto the scene with a 10-3, 2.83 ERA rookie season in 2006.

He's stepped things up over the past two seasons, winning 21 games with a 3.61 ERA and making 64 starts. This season he's been even better, leading the NL with 10.3 K/9 as the Marlins starting rotation has been terrific outside of Josh Johnson.

Odds He Is Dealt: five percent

The Marlins spent big this offseason to work towards building a sustainable winner, and they won't let a solid young starter like Sanchez get away. Expect him to be locked up this winter if not sooner, unless the Marlins are blown away with trade offer or Sanchez looks for too much money.

RP Brandon League, Seattle Mariners

Age: 29

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: 14 G, 7-of-9 Sv, 2.57 ERA, 5.1 K/9

League emerged as a frontline closer last season when he converted 37-of-42 save opportunities and made his first All-Star appearance.

He's doesn't have traditional, overpowering closer stuff but he has proven to be effective and there is no more in-demand commodity than effective relief pitching when the trade deadline rolls around.

Odds He Is Traded: 75 percent

The Mariners have holes up and down their roster, and don't have much need for an All-Star closer when they likely won't be in contention, so expect them to put League on the block. He could be the best available reliever at the deadline, and the Mariners could get an offer they can't turn down for him.

RP Brett Myers, Houston Astros

Age: 31

2013 Contract Status: $10 million option, $3 million buyout

2012 Stats: 9 G, 7-of-7 Sv, 1.04 ERA, 6.2 K/9

Myers was one of the biggest surprises of 2010 when he went 14-8 with a 3.14 ERA in his first year with the Astros, but he struggled last season in going 7-14 with a 4.46 ERA.

He was moved to the closer's role this offseason, a role he has previously filled as a member of the Phillies, and so far he's been lights out.

Odds He Is Traded: 90 percent

His $11 million salary is a sticking point, but the Astros won't pick up Myers' option at the end of the year so they'll likely do whatever they can to avoid losing him for nothing. If he keeps up his current level of play, he could net a solid return.

RP Jose Valverde, Detroit Tigers

Age: 34

2013 Contract Status: Free Agent

2012 Stats: 13 G, 5-of-7 Sv, 5.68 ERA, 7.1 K/9

A year after converting all 49 of his save opportunities, Valverde has struggled early on for the Tigers, blowing a pair of saves and giving up at least one run in four of his outings.

Despite those struggles, his resume is impressive as he's saved 191 games over the past five seasons, leading the league five times. He also has postseason experience, going 4-of-4 for saves in October.

Odds He Is Traded: zero

Even if he is struggling, contenders don't give away veteran relief pitching at the deadline and the Tigers should be right in the thick of things come July. That said, he could very well be on his way out of Detroit come season's end.