Fantasy Football 2012: Mock Simulation of 12-Team Draft When Holding No. 12 Slot

For the year-round thrill ride that is fantasy football, here's a dry run of draft expectations when holding the No. 12 slot in 12-team leagues (standard scoring), working exclusively off ESPN.com guru Chris Harris' Post-Draft Top 200 Rankings.

 

Round 1, Pick 12 overall: Motive—Best overall player

First option: RB Matt Forte, Bears
Second option: QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
Third option: TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots

 

Round 2, Pick 13 overall: Motive—Best overall talent

First option: QB Matthew Stafford, Lions
Second option: TE Rob Gronkowski, Patriots
Third option: RB Darren McFadden, Raiders

 

Round 3, Pick 36 overall: Motive—Best running back or receiver

First option: RB Michael Turner, Falcons
Second option: RB Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Third option: WR Jordy Nelson, Packers

Round 4, Pick 37 overall: Motive—Best receiver or running back

First option: WR Jordy Nelson, Packers
Second option: RB Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Third option: WR Victor Cruz, Giants

Round 5, Pick 60: Motive—Best player available...preferably a running back

First option: RB Beanie Wells, Cardinals
Second option: RB Shonn Greene, Jets
Third option: RB Jahvid Best, Lions

Round 6, Pick 61 overall: Motive—Best player available

First option: RB Shonn Greene, Jets
Second option: RB Jahvid Best, Lions
Third option: WR Steve Johnson, Bills

Round 7, Pick 84 overall: Motive—Best player available...perhaps a premium tight end

First option: TE Aaron Hernandez, Patriots
Second option: RB Doug Martin, Buccaneers
Third option: TE Brandon Pettigrew, Lions

Round 8, Pick 85 overall: Motive—Best high-end receiver available

First option: WR Reggie Wayne, Colts
Second option: WR Justin Blackmon, Jaguars
Third option: WR Nate Washington, Titans

Round 9, Pick 108 overall: Motive—Best high-end receiver

First option: WR Nate Washington, Titans
Second option: WR Laurent Robinson, Jaguars
Third option: WR Sidney Rice, Seahawks

Round 10, Pick 109 overall: Motive—Best receiver, running back or quarterback

First option: WR Laurent Robinson, Jaguars
Second option: QB Jay Cutler, Bears
Third option: RB David Wilson, Giants

Round 11, Pick 132: Motive—Best player available

First option: WR Greg Little, Browns
Second option: WR Mario Manningham, 49ers
Third option: WR Nate Burleson, Lions

Round 12, Pick 133: Motive—Best tight end or quarterback available

First option: TE Coby Fleener, Colts
Second option: TE Kellen Winslow, Jr., Buccaneers
Third option: RB Evan Royster, Redskins

Round 13, Pick 156: Motive—Best defense available

First option: D/ST Green Bay Packers
Second option: D/ST Seattle Seahawks
Third option: D/ST Detroit Lions

Round 14, Pick 157: Motive—Best kicker available

First option: PK Alex Henery, Eagles
Second option: PK Rob Bironas, Titans
Third option: PK Matt Prater, Broncos

Round 15, Pick 180: Motive—Best quarterback available

First option: QB Carson Palmer, Raiders
Second option: QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, Bills
Third option: QB Matt Flynn, Seahawks

Round 16, Pick 181: Motive—Best RB available...preferably a handcuff

First option: RB Ryan Williams, Cardinals
Second option: RB Jason Snelling, Falcons
Third option: RB Kendall Hunter, 49ers

Breakdown

• There weren't many "upside" picks in the first eight rounds, and that was a byproduct of having back-to-back choices at the tail end of the draft. In other words, I felt compelled to stay true to my own post-draft Top 75 and simultaneously target a top-four quarterback (Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Matthew Stafford, Tom Brady) and at least three or four proven running backs.
• I understand Harris' rationale and concerns about Wells, but there's no way Beanie lasts until pick No. 60 in a standard-scoring draft. Wells had a productive season (1,009 total yards, 10 TDs) and flexed his elite muscles at certain points (138 yards, three TDs in Week 4; 228 yards, one TD in Week 11). For 2012, the Cardinals primarily draw teams from the NFC West, NFC North and AFC East.
• I'll admit there is very little sex appeal with my four main tailbacks (Forte, Turner, Wells, Greene), but the first three are top-15 rushers and all four are capable of 1,300 total yards and/or nine TDs by season's end. On the flip side, Ryan Williams (Beanie's backup in Arizona) has the potential to be a top-five handcuff, if healthy. Even better, I fully expect Wells and Williams to be top-20 backs this time next year.
• Laurent Robinson signing with Jacksonville was part money grab, of course, but it was also a stealth fantasy move on Robinson's part, given his pre-exisiting relationship with new Jaguars coach Mike Mularkey (dating back to their Atlanta days). I have complete confidence in Mularkey reinvigorating the Jacksonville passing game, with Robinson (54 catches, 858 yards, 11 TDs with Dallas last year) and high-profile rookie Justin Blackmon collecting the lion's share of targets and red-zone opportunities.
• I cannot recall one circumstance—even in Points Per Reception leagues—when I took wide receivers with four consecutive picks...but that's how this particular board broke from Rounds 8-11 (Wayne, Washington, Robinson, Little). When selecting in standard-scoring leagues, it's all about roster balance and value at every turn.
• Tight end Aaron Hernandez is an absolute heist at No. 84. Fingers crossed on him finishing in the ballpark of last year's numbers (79 catches, 910 yards, seven TDs).
• I prioritized only one rookie in the draft, Colts tight end Coby Fleener. This pick was built on the foundation of one hopeful truth: Fleener (34 catches, 667 yards, 10 TDs last year with Stanford) will gracefully live up to the Gronkowski comparisons in his first year and finish third in overall targets amongst Indy pass-catchers.

Jay Clemons can be reached on Twitter, day or night, at @ATL_JayClemons.