2012 NFL Draft: Ryan Tannehill and Sure-Fire First-Rounders to Avoid

No NFL prospect is ever a sure thing, but for my money, the top six prospects in this year's class—Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, Ryan Kalil, Trent Richardson, Morris Claiborne and Justin Blackmon—are all safe bets.

After that, this year's draft gets murky.

There is a lot of talent in the first round for sure, but quite a few picks are very risky. I've identified three guaranteed first-round picks in particular I think teams should avoid.

They won't heed my advice, but they'll probably wish they had.

Ryan Tannehill, QB, Texas A&M

Tannehill may very well develop into a fine quarterback someday, but I sure as hell wouldn't take him in the first round, let alone in the top 10 where it's been rumored he'll go.

A top 10 guy should have the ability to step in and start early in his career, if not his first year. But Tannehill is a project, a player who does not have much experience at the position and still is a bit raw.

The athleticism is there. The potential seems real. But the price tag is going to be too high. I would avoid Tannehill. There are equivalent options available later in the draft.

Quinton Coples, DE, North Carolina

Coples possesses top-10 talent, but quite a few draft "experts" are down on him.

We'll start with Mike Mayock of the NFL Network.

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Mayock acknowledged Coples' talent—he is the top-rated defensive end in Mayock's prospect rankings—as well as Coples' value in the league as a pass-rusher, but there's a huge caveat.

"To me, the bust potential is high, and the earlier you take him the more risk there is inherent in that," Mayock said. "So, for me, Quinton Coples is not even a draftable player."

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Ouch.

Kevin Siefert of ESPNChicago.com relayed several concerns Todd McShay had with Coples, including a questionable motor and work ethic.

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Speaking to several ESPN.com bloggers at the scouting combine, ESPN analyst Todd McShay said there were times when Coples stood up in games and "appeared to have a union deal." More recently, McShay said on his Draft Minute video series that there are times when Coples "is the best defensive player in the class" and there are others when "you watch him and say, 'Man, he's mailed it in.'"

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Sorry, but I don't want to spend millions of dollars on a player who picks and chooses when he plays hard. I'd avoid Coples, especially since he'll probably require a top-15 pick to select him in the first place.

Dontari Poe, NT, Memphis

He ran a 4.9 40-yard dash despite weighing about 350 pounds. He added 44 reps at the bench press, a staggering number.

But did he really translate that athleticism on the football field during his time at Memphis? Is he worth a first-round pick, especially when he'll probably go fairly early in the draft?

Peter King of Sports Illustrated isn't convinced.

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But for a guy with such athletic talent, I heard more comments like, "I see no production,'' or "The guy just disappears in games.'' But one AFC personnel man did compare him to Ngata and said, "He could be one of the most versatile tackles in our league. Ngata didn't come into the league without questions either.'' Here's my biggest question about Poe: For such a marvelously disruptive pocket-presser, how did he have eight tackles for loss and one sack in 12 games last year?

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He could be Ngata, or he could be nada. He seemed more like the former at the combine and more like the latter on the field. He's a huge risk, and I for one would take a pass.

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