5 Reasons Chicago Bears Will Fail in 2012

The Chicago Bears were the most up-and-down team in the NFL in 2011.

After starting out the season 7-3 and establishing themselves as legitimate playoff contenders, the Bears struggled to a 1-5 record. The late-season collapse can mostly be accredited to injuries to their two biggest offensive stars—quarterback Jay Cutler and running back Matt Forte.

Cutler suffered a broken thumb in the team’s 10th game against the San Diego Chargers and the team struggled to rally behind backup quarterback Caleb Hanie.

A pro bowl invitee, Matt Forte was on pace for a career year before a sprained MCL placed him on the IR. Forte sat out the rest of the year—leaving the Bears without any offensive punch down the stretch.

In 2012, the Bears will look to put last season’s meltdown behind them.

Forte should be back to full-speed with the offseason to heal his ailing knee. Cutler will also be back in action and the team wisely signed an experienced signal-caller in Jason Campbell to provide a solid insurance plan, should Cutler be injured again.

The team finally went out and filled a hole it has had for a number of years— a legitimate No. 1 receiver. The Bears traded for Brandon Marshall in March. Cutler should be familiar with Marshall; the two spent three seasons together with the Denver Broncos.

With Cutler and Forte back in the fold and the addition of Marshall, the Bears are a popular pick to be the midseason version of the team and a threat in the playoffs.

Here are five reasons those assumptions are wrong and the Bears will struggle in 2012.

Matt Forte's Contract Situation

Matt Forte is an elite running back and one of the most diverse offensive weapons in the NFL. Despite only playing in 12 games, Forte gained 1,487 yards from scrimmage and four touchdowns.

Since entering the league in 2008, Forte has been as consistent a back as there is in the NFL, starting in every game of his career until his season-ending injury in 2011.

So why hasn’t Chicago inked the pro-bowler to a long-term extension?

Forte’s sprained MCL is certainly a concern, but it shouldn’t be enough to dissuade the Bears from signing the star to a long-term deal. His production speaks for itself.

Rather than commit long term to Forte, the Bears have decided to place the franchise tag on him. That move wasn’t exactly what Forte was looking for. To add to Forte’s displeasure with Bears’ brass, the team went out and signed former Oakland Raider’s running back Michael Bush to a four-year deal.

According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Forte isn’t expected to attend the team’s upcoming voluntary team workouts.

If Forte’s displeasure leads to a holdout, it could be the beginning of a bad season for the bears. As the NFL world saw with Chris Johnson in 2011, holdouts can be devastating.

Johnson, only a year away from being the NFL’s most productive back, struggled to put up even decent numbers early in the season after a lengthy hold out. The early-season struggle carried on for most of the year and Johnson had the worst year of his career. Much of the blame for Johnson’s poor performance was the time lost from his holdout.

If Forte misses too much of the preseason he could see a similar dip in his production much like Johnson. A less-than-elite Forte would be detrimental to the Bears offense as he is far and away their best player and biggest threat.

Offensive Line Issues

Jay Cutler’s broken thumb may be the type of injury that is more “freak accident” than a result of taking too much punishment over a long season, but it was no surprise he suffered an injury. His pass protection was among the worst in the league all year.

The Chicago Bears offensive line gave up an awful 49 sacks in 2011—good for around three a game.

Young right tackle Gabe Carimi has shown some promise, but the Bears could use an upgrade at almost every position along the line and the issue was absolutely ignored during the free agency period.

If the line continues its struggles in 2012, we could see Jason Campbell take over by midseason. Keeping Jay Cutler healthy will be crucial to success for the Bears.

A shift in offensive philosophy should help reduce sacks in 2012. Mike Martz is now gone as offensive coordinator.

Martz’s aggressive pass-happy system called for a lot of deep drop backs and resulted in predictable play-calling. Pair those concepts up with a young, struggling offensive line and that’s a recipe for giving up a ton of sacks.

While the shift will help, this line isn’t necessarily proven in the run-blocking area, either.

With a running back like Matt Forte, it’s hard to look bad as a run blocking unit. A look at backup Marion Barber’s 3.5 yards per carry paints a picture of the Bears ground game without Forte.

New backup Michael Bush is an upgrade over Barber, but the Bears failure to add any pieces to their offensive line is a concern heading into 2012.

Jay Cutler's Inconsistency

In today's NFL, you can only go as far as your quarterback will take you.

The quarterback position has become more important than ever as passing statistics are at an all-time high. It has now become nearly impossible to win with a mediocre quarterback.

For most of his six years in the NFL, Jay Cutler has been one of the most divisive quarterbacks in the NFL. With a cannon for an arm and above-average athleticism for the position that allows him to make throws outside the pocket and on the run, Cutler is highly talented.

However, he has always struggled with consistency and decision making. In last year's injury-shortened season, Cutler's 13 touchdowns to seven interceptions was one of his best touchdown-to-interception ratios of his career, but his 58 percent was his most inaccurate season in the NFL.

At this point, fans know what they are getting from Cutler. When he is playing well, he is among the best in the NFL and can make every throw a quarterback should make.

When he's not playing well—well, it could be a long day for Bears fans.

The presence of Brandon Marshall could help Cutler find more stability in his play, but the question remains if the Bears will ever win big with Cutler at the helm.

Aging Defense

When you think of Chicago Bears, you think defense. Specifically, you think of Brian Urlacher.

For years, the Bears have been able to overcome many difficulties on offense because they had some of the best defenses in the NFL.

In 2011, the Bears defense was just plain mediocre. The Bears ranked 16th in the NFL in yards per game defensively and 14th in points per game.

What is more concerning for the Bears is that there is little reason to believe that the defense will improve in 2012.

The Bears' defense centers around eight-time pro bowler Brian Urlacher, Lance Briggs, Charles Tillman and Julius Peppers. Urlacher is now entering his 12th season and at 33 years old, his production could start to tail off—especially if his knee injury sustained in the final game of the season continues to slow him down.

Briggs, Tillman and Peppers are all in their 30s too and likely have their most productive years behind them.

The Bears will be depending on their offense more than ever, and historically the Bears have always won when they are a defense-first team.

Tough NFC North

The Chicago Bears find themselves in a division that is suddenly one of the toughest in the NFL.

The Green Bay Packers were by far the most dominant team in the regular season in 2011 with a 15-1 record, and after a one-and-done appearance in the playoffs they will be hungry to repeat their dominance in 2012 en route to a deeper playoff run.

The Lions—a team that has been a perennial NFC North cellar dweller—were able to split the series with the Bears in 2011 and will look to improve on last year's 10-6 record.

2011's last place Vikings have one of the best running backs in the NFL in Adrian Peterson, and they and could play much better than their 3-13 record indicates depending on the growth in second-year quarterback Christian Ponder.

Even if the Bears are able to overcome the obstacles that they must overcome to find success in 2012 they will find themselves in a fight for the playoffs. The Lions have one of the youngest rosters in the NFL and are teeming with talent on both sides of the ball.

The Bears are a team with a lot of grizzled veterans that are on the downside of their careers. It's going to take a great season for them to stay relevant in a division featuring the Packers and the Lions.