Top 5 Fantasy Football Picks with Huge Red Flags

Rounds 1-5 in your fantasy draft should allow you to build the core of your fantasy squad. If you do it right, you should end up with five guys who produce in the top two tiers of their position. Avoiding those early-round busts are the key. 

Of course, there are concerns associated with every fantasy performer. Whether it’s an injury, age, a new system or off-the-field distractions, some players carry more risk than others.

Here are the top fantasy football picks with the biggest red flags. If you do draft one of these players, it'd be smart to have a contingency plan (for example, depth at their position).

Robert Griffin III

Robert Griffin III will be a very good NFL quarterback, but to assume he will immediately produce as a top-five QB just because a similar player did it last year is dangerous. Griffin III is not Cam Newton.

The records that Newton broke for rushing TDs by a QB and passing yards by a rookie (previously held by Peyton Manning) are proof that this type of impact very rarely comes from a rookie player.

Even for a rookie QB to reach fantasy relevance is an accomplishment—such as Andy Dalton did last year. The reason is the speed of the game at the NFL level, which usually requires an adjustment period. Newton still struggled at times, but his legs bailed him out. Griffin has the skill set to do the same, but it doesn’t always translate right away like it did with Newton.

Basically, the red flag is that RGIII is a rookie, and for the most part, rookie QBs don’t fare well in fantasy. I’m not saying don’t draft him, but a top-50 overall selection seems like a reach.  

Griffin III will most likely end up with the Washington Redskins who have added WRs Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan in free agency to go with Santana Moss and TE Fred Davis. Those are some pretty good targets to throw to, but the Redskins’ offensive line gave up 41 sacks last season and will need to be improved upon for Griffin III to be in an ideal situation for success.

Peyton Manning

The red flags with Manning come in several areas. First, there are his reported four neck surgeries. Sure, he has been cleared to play, but could he be one hard hit away from retirement? Possibly.

The other red flag comes with joining a new system with different personnel as a Denver Bronco. The Colts were a pass-heavy, offensive-minded club with Manning. The Broncos 2011 identity was based on their tough defense led by Von Miller and their No. 1 ranked rushing offense. Of course, the run-pass disparity will shift in 2012, as the rushing game was emphasized out of necessity last season.

Demaryius Thomas (24) and Eric Decker (25) are the young receivers who will become Manning’s top targets. Thomas impressed in the playoffs, catching several long passes while racking up 10 receptions for 297 yards in the Broncos’ two playoff games. Decker was the Broncos’ leading receiver in the regular season with 612 yards.

But expecting a top-five fantasy performance from Manning would be a bit much; his sole focus will be on trying to lead the team to a Super Bowl, and the Broncos would be smart to protect him late in games and late in the season.

Darren McFadden

McFadden was (on average) the 23rd player off the board in fantasy drafts last year, and he gave elite RB production—for six weeks. A Week 7 mid-foot sprain, later reported as a Lisfranc injury, kept McFadden out the remainder of the season.

McFadden is a special player, but he hasn’t played a full season yet in his four-year NFL career. And this year, the tenseness surrounding his durability will be even greater because of the departure of backup RB Michael Bush to the Chicago Bears.

In 2010, McFadden played only 13 games, but finished with very respectable RB1 stats. He gained 1,157 yards on the ground and 507 through the air with 10 total TDs.

Not counting Week 7, where he had just two carries before exiting the game, his 2011 stats project out to a 16-game total of 1,627 rushing yards, 403 receiving yards and 13 TDs.

With all that potential, it’s tough to resist taking him as a top-10 back. But the fact that he has yet to play a complete season is a huge red flag.

Jahvid Best

Best was the 40th player selected on average in 2011 fantasy drafts. The 23-year-old has struggled with a history of concussions and lingering concussion symptoms.

While Best is an all-around great back with potential for huge total yardage numbers, the concussions are a huge red flag.

Best had a promising rookie season in 2010 as he gained 1,042 total yards and six total TDs.

However, those concussion issues kept Best from being able to improve upon his 2011 totals as he suited up for only six games. But Best did show that he was moving in the right direction, as he was averaging 112.8 total yards per contest.

If he can avoid the big hits, Best should be a lock to gain over 1,500 total yards (his 2011 stats project to 1,804). But the chances of him making it through the season are anything but rock solid, concussions have proven to be a career-killer for other NFL stars in the past—let’s hope that’s not the case with Best.

Jamaal Charles

Charles played on just two games in 2011 before tearing his ACL. He was (on average) the third player selected in fantasy drafts in 2011 after a monster 2010. 

In 2010, Charles rushed for 1,467 yards on a very impressive 6.4 yards per carry. He also added 468 yards receiving with eight total TDs.

Charles looked up to form in his limited 2011 action, averaging 6.9 yards per attempt.

However, a huge rebound season seems less likely now that the Chiefs have signed free-agent RB Peyton Hillis. Also, the signing of Hillis could be seen as a sign that the Chiefs will look to protect Charles more in 2012, perhaps taking away goal-line carries from Charles and giving them to the bulldozer Hillis. 

Charles is the real-deal when healthy, and his ACL injury occurred way back in Week 2 of 2011. However, being limited by Hillis means a return to a top-15 RB (not top-three) is more likely.